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Ellie Mae, Inc. Message Board

greg_m_thornton 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 7, 2015 5:36 PM Member since: Sep 14, 2009
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  • Reply to

    It seems ready

    by learnigisdkey Dec 7, 2015 3:52 PM
    greg_m_thornton greg_m_thornton Dec 7, 2015 5:36 PM Flag

    Yes as I said on Friday I shorted it at $29. We will see what happens over the next few weeks... So far I have a small profit on my trade

  • Reply to

    It seems ready

    by learnigisdkey Dec 7, 2015 3:52 PM
    greg_m_thornton greg_m_thornton Dec 7, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    Some are shorting this stock because the commercial launch is a high risk event. It might go well or it might poorly. If it goes well as you hope the stock will sky rocket to the$50s or higher. But, there is a risk it will go more poorly than expected (like commonly happens with many biotechs) and the stock falls to the teens or lower.

    Look at the options on this stock my friend. They are expensive for a reason. This is a very high risk stock. The potential for a very high reward exists but so does the potential for a very big loss.

    Be smart and understand the risk of the stock you are holding. There is no such thing as a sure things. Always understand the risks of what you are holding and understand the other side, i.e., why some are taking the other side of the trade and think this is a good short opportunity....

  • Wow what a surprise! No buy offer today, even after all those rumors last Friday that a buyout offer would come on Monday from GSK or many other potential suitors.

    Like I said on Friday anytime RLYP hits 29 sell as it is likely to drift back down to mid to low 20s if no real buyout offer comes within the next week or so. I really doubt a real offer will come anytime soon. A smart buyer would wait a few months and see how the launch goes. If the launch goes poorly they can buy RLYP for a much much lower price and if it goes well then it will be well worth the higher price as it will be lower risk and a more certain to be a real commercial success. So either way a smart buyer will sit back and wait to see what happens with the launch.

  • Reply to

    Monday Open - $30 - $75

    by stock_lurker Dec 4, 2015 4:21 PM
    greg_m_thornton greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    Ha Ha. My guess is Monday RLYP will open some where in between $1 and $100 a share :)

  • Reply to

    What could be the buyout price?

    by vmehrapge Dec 4, 2015 3:02 PM
    greg_m_thornton greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    Keep on dreaming about $98 a share or you could make some money by selling on $29.20 a share today :)

  • Reply to

    Wait until $29 to short

    by greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 2:40 PM
    greg_m_thornton greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    If it is idiotic to sell RLYP at $29 or higher than I am certainly the biggest idiot on this board :) We will see on Monday if it pays to be the idiot selling at $29 or not. My guess is still that this drops down some on Monday after no bidder emerges over the weekend. I am selling this rumor at $29

  • Reply to

    Wait until $29 to short

    by greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 2:40 PM
    greg_m_thornton greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    Yes and I mad a fortune on that release. Go look at my posts I said to cover in the teens when it dropped after the release. All the longs at the time said it would go to $30 and yet it dropped to the low teens. I covered and went long. I sold when it popped back up to the low 20s and was neutral. Now I have gone short again. I could be very wrong this time if there is really a buy-out offer coming. But I think it doesn't come for a least a few months and the stock will drift back down to the low 20s yet again. Anything below $20 I am a buyer and anything close to $30 I am a seller right now. If there sells launch goes really well or really poorly I could change with real facts. But, buy-out rumors are just that rumors... not facts...

  • Reply to

    Wait until $29 to short

    by greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 2:40 PM
    greg_m_thornton greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    Based on all the excitement on this message board for a RLYP buy-out there appears to be a lot of speculative, over-excited longs in RLYP right now which is a good counter intuitive sign for shorts like me.

  • Reply to

    Wait until $29 to short

    by greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 2:40 PM
    greg_m_thornton greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    My limit orders are filled and I am short 6800 shares at just over $29 a share. Hoping RLYP cools off over the weekend after no buy out offer emerges. I could be wrong, but I think the odds are in my favor and RLYP will fall on Monday if no buy out offer emerges by then and then I can cover for a nice profit

  • Reply to

    Wait until $29 to short

    by greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 2:40 PM
    greg_m_thornton greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    The time to buy today was at $26 or less. The really good time to buy recently was when RLYP was under $20.

    Now that RLYP is over $29 there is more risk than reward in my opinion. Good time to take profits and even perhaps consider to start shorting. RLYP stock price is too high right now to buy. Really what has changed since yesterday? Some rumors? The chance to buy the rumor was back at $26. Now is the time to sell in my opinion.

    Congrats to longs who are smart enough to take profits at above $29

  • greg_m_thornton by greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Still some more upside to go on these buy out rumors. If it breaks $29 then RLYP will be a good short. Should come back down to the low 20s early next week once these buy-out rumors prove to be false. But for now the momentum is up so it could reach $29 before it starts falling back down.

    If you are long and still haven't taken some profits off the table today at over $28 then you are just greedy and will soon get what you deserve.

  • From Benzinga.. Merck is not going to make an offer. But other companies waiting until launch in January to see how it goes and then might make an offer. So anyone buying today hoping for a quick pop over the weekend will be disappointed. Everyone is waiting to see how the launch goes early next year. I don't expect RLYP to go much higher than $26 to $27 level until we see how the launch goes. It then could go a lot higher or a lot lower. But both longs and shorts will have to be patient for the next few months.

    Here is the quote from Benzinga...

    "A source familiar with the matter told Benzinga Merck is not involved with a bid, but that three to four companies are evaluating Relypsa. The evaluation process is in its early stages and no developments are expected until at least 2016, according to the source."

  • greg_m_thornton greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    Any nervous short has already covered. What do you think the big volume spike was all about? The nervous shorts have already covered. The rest will stay put if they haven't already covered. Plenty of volume today so it would have been easy to cover already.

  • greg_m_thornton by greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Looks like some nervous shorts were squeezed out at around $26 to $27 and that RLYP will start falling back down slowly now. Looks likely to close below $27 and will probably take a really big drop back down to $22 tomorrow if MRK doesn't confirm the rumor tonight after the close.

  • greg_m_thornton by greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    Keep in mind it is just a rumor, no comment from MRK yet.

    Looks like after the initial pop (scared shorts covering) that RLYP is falling back down indicating that there is a chance that this just might be a false rumor

  • greg_m_thornton by greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 12:13 PM Flag

    Has MRK confirm if the rumor is true?

  • greg_m_thornton by greg_m_thornton Dec 4, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    Has anyone heard what MRK will offer? Is it as high as $25 a share?

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