are you still reviewing County records ? your assessment was 100% wrong on the # of closings in Q4 and now Q1 - you need to sharpen your pencil when making predictions of growth. you analysis is completely off base.
Big new study out yesterday (From the SF Fed) Household Formation sent to soar (already starting) has been averaging 900k the last 5 years -and Now, set to rise to 1.4-1.5M per year until 2020. LGI Homes is well positioned as Renters become 1st Time Buyers --- the Average Millennial is 26 - just about to enter a 5 year up cycle for home buying.
All Categories of Household Formation Spending are doing well - April Year to Date Retail Sales: Auto up 4.5%, Furniture up 5.6% Building Material Stores up 9.7% -- while Department Store sales are down 3.0%
Even the Retailers who are doing poorly - highlight the positive sales in their Houseware departments -- eg. Best Buy - called out Appliances & Home Theatre. Target called out House and Garden Urban Outfitters did the same.