I didn't recommend selling VMEM don't put words in my mouth dude, this stock is very undervalued there is only one way it will trade and that is up and to the right.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Good to know, that is something I hope to see rectified by the next OS release. Still, there is a market for Violin arrays where the features aren't as important as the performance, which has worked out OK until now but with increased competition having advanced features will only help them.
Short covering before earnings, this won't stop expect it to go up again by as much again tomorrow and the next day until earnings release, support is 3.20 resistance 3.85 but I expect to see 4 by Thursday's close.
I'm sure they will fix the VMOS problem too, for the situations where this could be problematic.
The software release was announced in the last earnings call and the expected time frame was around 2-3 months so that is why I said this was expected any time now, we are literally near the end of that expected time frame.
You don't get it. There are situations where Violin arrays are the right choice, and others where they are not. My point is that the situations where they ARE the right choice are forecast to increase, and at a very fast pace. This is good news for Violin and it's shareholders, along with their direct competitors for all flash arrays. The fact that you listed FIO as a direct competitor suggests you are looking at this from the perspective of a mid-tier system builder, and not an enterprise architect. You simply cannot put all of the vendors in the same bucket, there are different tools for different jobs. Clearly you are not the guru you think you are.
I work for a company deeply entrenched in cloud services, and I'm also very familiar with the channel. There are certainly instances where Violin arrays are not necessary, but there are plenty which don't fit into your simplistic view either, so to speak. Now explain why Violin was the preferred vendor for the Government? Think about it, take your time, then reconsider your view that everything is about the features and remember that reliability and performance matters more in certain situations. Don't take my word for it that Violin is the market leader either, do your own DD.
Let me explain it to you in very simple terms at YOU can understand. These are not the same thing, the end.
PS: you do realize that Violin has promised an updated OS which is due to be released any time now that addresses the very shortcomings you are so keen to point out, right? I think you need to stop looking in the rearview mirror friend.
You are still trying to fit Violin arrays into direct competition with local storage, stop trying this is not the same market segment. I got your cheerleader right here, knucklehead.
That guy had no idea what he was talking about, comparing Violin arrays with PCIe cards.. Apples and oranges my friend, he needed to be put in his place for being so ignorant as well as arrogant, bad combo.
What do you know about the Cloud??? What type of installation? VDI? CRM? Is it SaaS or PaaS, or are we talking VDI? Do you know what is the ROI for having ultra low latency in any or all of these basic examples? What about scaling, if you had a hybrid array that performs well on a 500 desktop VDI deployment but starts to hiccup when doubled to 1000, was it a better investment to go with the proven technology of Violin? Let me tell you who knows the answers, the channel partners do, and they are going to drive Violin's success because their own success and reputation depends on knowing why, when, and how to implement Violin over the competition. Have you read the white papers, seen the videos, compared solutions, read about their award winning technology?? Ya, I doubt it.
Here are some notes for future reference.
1. Violin does not compete with server installations that use local storage, the market for their products is Enterprise not mom & pop shops. In fact, they are selling the PCIe card business to focus on a much better opportunity in all flash arrays.
2. Violin is not one of many, there are 12 true all flash array vendors according to Gartner, and Violin is recognized to be the best in class and market leader.
3. Management has nothing to do with the product, they have everything to do with marketing the product. What Pure and SolidFire had was good marketers, Violin has the best product and new management with a ton of marketing experience.
Violin will catch up in sales, Kevin Denuccio has built a team that knows how to sell product, and they have the best product out there. KD has also done this type of turnaround before, google him.
Those predictions haven't been updated in a while, probably because they have no reliable way to estimate at this point. Let's see if that changes after earnings.
The only analyst I've seen writing about VMEM lately was Wunderlich's Kaushik Roy, and he reiterated his buy rating and said to buy on the dip. This guy understands that datacenters are shifting to all flash arrays quickly.
Who exactly is forecasting flattish growth? This company will continue to grow at a high rate because they are the market leaders in a rapidly growing market segment for all flash arrays.
Tier one storage is a 16 billion dollar per year market, flash arrays from Violin and others have only captured 1 billion of this so far but will capture 100% as price/performance is enough to produce the ROI needed to make the investment. This is especially important to application infrastructures where retrieving data at high speed & low latency is essential.
The rate of growth in this market segment is expected to increase exponentially as the cost of flash memory comes down. You can see this happening with SSD drives becoming more common in laptops in addition to handheld devices which were already all flash anyway.
Kaushik may be the only one pounding the table telling everyone to buy VMEM, but others ARE pounding the table about the market for all flash arrays. Just look at the hype around Pure Storage, already people are looking to value them at 3 billion. Yes, that is more than 10x VMEM market cap folks.
Opex was forecast to be 30m per quarter, not cash burn. They did not forecast cash burn, but historically has been 20m per quarter.
The Opex of 30m is about 20m per quarter less than before, so as long as Opex is in line with estimates cash burn this quarter should be significantly less than it has been.
Did they switch to 100% channel sales only? I thought they significantly reduced direct sales team but did not eliminate completely. At any rate, there's no point guessing how fast channel sales will grow, trying to guess based on Q1 performance will be nearly impossible.
Instead what I'll be looking for is any clues that WFA is gaining traction, I'll also looking for an update on their enterprise software release which should be announced any time now. Of course, I'll also be keeping a close eye on cash burn. Don't expect a blowout quarter.
Dude, nobody expects a blowout quarter. They are in transition, just look for them to be executing according to plan and decide whether you think the plan is going to succeed. Violin has the best in class solutions in a market that is forecast to skyrocket, you need to look at this as an investment and not a trade, it is going to act like a POS right up to the point when the market starts treating this stock with respect and then it is going to skyrocket and you will either be along for the ride or not. That is all.
Honestly, I don't understand what the big players are waiting for. Violin has the best flash array products on the market but is trading at rock bottom prices, their big competitors can buy them or compete with them as sales increase and the market for all flash arrays soars.
Whatever, I'm just tired of the negativity when the stock is trading so low. It is almost as bad as pumpers screaming buy when overbought.
"vmem cannot sustain as stand alone company"
This is a baseless claim, they can and will sustain themselves and you are talking out your blow hole.
Somehow, my other reply was lost.. I'm not going to rewrite it. I'll try to sum it up.
TechEd, RSI, Friday's buy signal confirmed, RedHat, OpenStack, Microsoft, earnings, Cramer says M&A is hot right now, and short covering is almost certain going into earnings. This is the convergence of things, I was more detailed in my original reply, stupid Yahoo.