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Intel Corporation Message Board

gregory.lynn 128 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2014 9:59 AM Member since: Jun 22, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Next week's earnings

    by stocker10912 May 23, 2014 10:15 AM
    gregory.lynn@rocketmail.com gregory.lynn May 27, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    You are still trying to fit Violin arrays into direct competition with local storage, stop trying this is not the same market segment. I got your cheerleader right here, knucklehead.

  • Reply to

    Next week's earnings

    by stocker10912 May 23, 2014 10:15 AM
    gregory.lynn@rocketmail.com gregory.lynn May 27, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    That guy had no idea what he was talking about, comparing Violin arrays with PCIe cards.. Apples and oranges my friend, he needed to be put in his place for being so ignorant as well as arrogant, bad combo.

  • Reply to

    Next week's earnings

    by stocker10912 May 23, 2014 10:15 AM
    gregory.lynn@rocketmail.com gregory.lynn May 27, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    What do you know about the Cloud??? What type of installation? VDI? CRM? Is it SaaS or PaaS, or are we talking VDI? Do you know what is the ROI for having ultra low latency in any or all of these basic examples? What about scaling, if you had a hybrid array that performs well on a 500 desktop VDI deployment but starts to hiccup when doubled to 1000, was it a better investment to go with the proven technology of Violin? Let me tell you who knows the answers, the channel partners do, and they are going to drive Violin's success because their own success and reputation depends on knowing why, when, and how to implement Violin over the competition. Have you read the white papers, seen the videos, compared solutions, read about their award winning technology?? Ya, I doubt it.

    Here are some notes for future reference.

    1. Violin does not compete with server installations that use local storage, the market for their products is Enterprise not mom & pop shops. In fact, they are selling the PCIe card business to focus on a much better opportunity in all flash arrays.
    2. Violin is not one of many, there are 12 true all flash array vendors according to Gartner, and Violin is recognized to be the best in class and market leader.
    3. Management has nothing to do with the product, they have everything to do with marketing the product. What Pure and SolidFire had was good marketers, Violin has the best product and new management with a ton of marketing experience.

    Violin will catch up in sales, Kevin Denuccio has built a team that knows how to sell product, and they have the best product out there. KD has also done this type of turnaround before, google him.

  • Reply to

    Next week's earnings

    by stocker10912 May 23, 2014 10:15 AM
    gregory.lynn@rocketmail.com gregory.lynn May 23, 2014 7:01 PM Flag

    Those predictions haven't been updated in a while, probably because they have no reliable way to estimate at this point. Let's see if that changes after earnings.

  • Reply to

    Next week's earnings

    by stocker10912 May 23, 2014 10:15 AM
    gregory.lynn@rocketmail.com gregory.lynn May 23, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    The only analyst I've seen writing about VMEM lately was Wunderlich's Kaushik Roy, and he reiterated his buy rating and said to buy on the dip. This guy understands that datacenters are shifting to all flash arrays quickly.

    Who exactly is forecasting flattish growth? This company will continue to grow at a high rate because they are the market leaders in a rapidly growing market segment for all flash arrays.

    Tier one storage is a 16 billion dollar per year market, flash arrays from Violin and others have only captured 1 billion of this so far but will capture 100% as price/performance is enough to produce the ROI needed to make the investment. This is especially important to application infrastructures where retrieving data at high speed & low latency is essential.

    The rate of growth in this market segment is expected to increase exponentially as the cost of flash memory comes down. You can see this happening with SSD drives becoming more common in laptops in addition to handheld devices which were already all flash anyway.

    Kaushik may be the only one pounding the table telling everyone to buy VMEM, but others ARE pounding the table about the market for all flash arrays. Just look at the hype around Pure Storage, already people are looking to value them at 3 billion. Yes, that is more than 10x VMEM market cap folks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Next week's earnings

    by stocker10912 May 23, 2014 10:15 AM
    gregory.lynn@rocketmail.com gregory.lynn May 23, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Opex was forecast to be 30m per quarter, not cash burn. They did not forecast cash burn, but historically has been 20m per quarter.

    The Opex of 30m is about 20m per quarter less than before, so as long as Opex is in line with estimates cash burn this quarter should be significantly less than it has been.

  • Reply to

    Next week's earnings

    by stocker10912 May 23, 2014 10:15 AM
    gregory.lynn@rocketmail.com gregory.lynn May 23, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    Did they switch to 100% channel sales only? I thought they significantly reduced direct sales team but did not eliminate completely. At any rate, there's no point guessing how fast channel sales will grow, trying to guess based on Q1 performance will be nearly impossible.

    Instead what I'll be looking for is any clues that WFA is gaining traction, I'll also looking for an update on their enterprise software release which should be announced any time now. Of course, I'll also be keeping a close eye on cash burn. Don't expect a blowout quarter.

  • Reply to

    Next week's earnings

    by stocker10912 May 23, 2014 10:15 AM
    gregory.lynn@rocketmail.com gregory.lynn May 23, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Dude, nobody expects a blowout quarter. They are in transition, just look for them to be executing according to plan and decide whether you think the plan is going to succeed. Violin has the best in class solutions in a market that is forecast to skyrocket, you need to look at this as an investment and not a trade, it is going to act like a POS right up to the point when the market starts treating this stock with respect and then it is going to skyrocket and you will either be along for the ride or not. That is all.

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