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Melco Crown Entertainment Limited Message Board

grftt 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 14, 2015 6:43 PM Member since: Jan 20, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Buyout of Macau Studio City

    by grftt Jun 11, 2015 9:42 PM
    grftt grftt Jun 14, 2015 6:43 PM Flag

    Cool thanks

  • Reply to

    Buyout of Macau Studio City

    by grftt Jun 11, 2015 9:42 PM
    grftt grftt Jun 14, 2015 7:57 AM Flag

    tell us how happy you will be when you break even at $36.. LOL

    Matrix...my position in mpel is relatively small these days ...so no sweat.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout of Macau Studio City

    by grftt Jun 11, 2015 9:42 PM
    grftt grftt Jun 12, 2015 10:45 PM Flag

    Hi what was the threads title......no not been lately to Manila but will go towards end of this year.....cheers Dave

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hello guys not been on here for a while but I thought I would stop by. As we wait for confirmation on our table allotment that seems in the range of 250-300 now, I think a buyout is imminent.
    The infrastructure delays have finally caught up with Macau the mainland especially around St Paul's square make it basically impossible for locals to move around freely. The light rail to transport these people to get to Cotai has no end in sight and the Cotai permanent harbour is delayed again. They just cannot let more people in to Macau as the bottle neck at Gombei border crossing without free flow public transportation is crazy.
    When we get confirmation of tables then I see mpel tabling a offer to buy the remaking 40% IMHO and we move forward from there.

    The acquisition by Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (MPEL) of the minority investor in the US$3.2-billion Studio City scheme (pictured) has become “more likely” in light of the new gaming table allocation in Macau, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein Hong Kong Ltd said in a note on Friday.

    “We believe a low table allocation (which is likely in the cards as telegraphed by Galaxy) could be the catalyst for MPEL to acquire New Cotai’s interest in Studio City,” said the Sanford C. Bernstein team led by Vitaly Umansky, the firm’s senior research analyst for global gaming.

    The note was referring to a recent a casino opening by rival operator Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd and to the Macau government’s cap on the number of live dealer tables that can enter the market between now and 2022.

    Melco Crown is a 60 percent equity investor in the current Studio City scheme. In June 2011, the casino firm paid US$360 million to take over leadership of the scheme from some previous investors. The project had lain with its foundations part built since 2007 after the original set of investors couldn’t all agree on the funding.

    New Cotai LLC, controlled by funds managed by United States-based investment firms Silver Point Capital LP and Oaktree Capital Management LP, owns the remaining 40 percent. Mr Umansky served as senior vice president and chief financial officer for New Cotai Holdings LLC under a different equity ownership structure for the then Macao Studio City project, between 2007 and 2011.

    The Macau government has said that gaming table allocation for new casino projects in the territory would be decided by a range of criteria including each scheme’s contribution to non-gaming tourism, to employment and to career development of locals, as well as each operator’s general contribution to diversification of the local economy.

    Galaxy Entertainment’s new property Galaxy Macau Phase 2, which opened on May 27, was granted 150 new-to-market gaming tables. The operator had said in filings that the new property has capacity for 500 gaming tables. Sanford C. Bernstein estimates that the casino operator “moved [about] 90 tables from other locations” to Galaxy Macau Phase 2.

    “Although MPEL has some underutilised table capacity (at Altira in particular), the joint venture structure of Studio City may make table shifting less palatable,” the analysts said.

    “Such an acquisition should be a strong near-term catalyst as the overhang associated with the joint venture structure at Studio City is [would be] eliminated and investor concerns about the operational effectiveness of Studio City are removed.”

    “We believe the shareholders of New Cotai are sellers of their stake and MPEL retains a strong bargaining position in any buyout discussion,” they added.

    Table matters

    Melco Crown, co-chaired by Lawrence Ho Yau Lung and James Packer, said in its 2014 annual report in April that it might technically fall into default on an approximately HKD10.86-billion (US$1.4-billion) Studio City project loan if it is unable to open the casino resort by October 2016 “with a minimum 400 gaming tables available for operation”.

    In Friday’s note, the Sanford C. Bernstein team said they believed gaming table allocation in the Macau market matters, “but only to some extent”.

    “We believe additional tables will be granted in phases. The initial table allocation is not a concern as long as operators can optimise the utilisation of their existing table inventory,” they said. “We believe the government will likely provide operators with additional tables in a phased (and likely not overly public) manner.”

    The investment research firm also said the month of May showed “the first glimmer of the beginning of a potential bottoming of fundamentals” in the Macau gaming market, as the month “experienced sequential improvements” in average daily revenue.

    Market wide, Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell 37.1 percent year-on-year in May to approximately MOP20.35 billion (US$2.55 billion).

    “We expect margin compression [for casino operators] to likely persist until industry GGR decline stabilises in the latter part of 2015 and operators are able to begin adjusting cost basis,” the analysts said.

    Sanford C. Bernstein lowered its 2015 GGR forecast for Macau to US$33 billion, from US$35 billion, representing a fall of 25 percent from 2014. The firm expects VIP revenue to decline by 35 percent year-on-year, while GGR from the mass segment may drop by 10 percent.

    “We expect to see a bottoming by the latter part of the year with rejuvenated growth beginning in 2016,” it said.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    KNUCKLEHEADS

    by zoooootie May 17, 2015 10:20 PM
    grftt grftt May 18, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    Zootie...longtime no see lol. What a friggin joke you are, I remember this guy with the same negative posts back in 2010 he is obviously a paid brasher. He used to bombard this board on my run up from longtime hold positions from high 3s and low 4s until finally selling out in the mid 30s 10-12 times my money lol.
    Yep don't have a clue lol, you got some nerve showing your face on here, go change your screen name like a good boy and don't be late for work.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 16 April 2015 12:14 (GMT +8)

    Gaming table growth rate to remain intact
    2015/04/15
    Secretary for Economy and Finance Lionel Leong Vai Tac said on Tuesday the government will stick to its position that for 10 years from 2013 the average annual growth rate of the city’s gaming tables will not exceed three percent.

    He also said that the government was still studying a gaming operator’s application for gaming tables for its new development in Cotai, which is due to open next month.

    Galaxy Entertainment Group (GEG) has announced that the grand opening of its “New Chapter of Galaxy Macau and Broadway Macau” twin project will take place on May 27.

    Galaxy said in January that its gaming facilities included in its second development phase would require about 500 gaming tables.

    The policy secretary made the remarks on the sidelines of Tuesday’s annual spring reception hosted by the Macau Monetary Authority (AMCM).

    Asked by reporters how many gaming tables the government planned to approve for Cotai casino resorts which gaming operators plan to open later this year, Leong said that the government had received one application from a gaming operator asking for more gaming tables.

    “We are still analysing the application…now is not the right time to say how many more gaming tables the government will approve,” Leong said. He did not name the casino operator. Galaxy is the only company slated to open new gaming facilities next month.

    Melco Crown Entertainment has said it plans to open its Studio City resort in the third quarter of this year.

    Melco Crown Entertainment Co-Chairman and CEO Lawrence Ho Yau Lung said earlier this year he hoped the government would approve at least 400 gaming tables for the company’s development projects planned to open in Cotai this year.

    “The government sticks to its position that the average annual growth rate in the number of gaming tables will not be higher than three percent…it will be in place for 10 years from 2013,” Leong s

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Galaxy table allocation

    by grftt Apr 5, 2015 7:56 PM
    grftt grftt Apr 8, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    Hello Jerry
    Yep you are right they have to know already and I think the news is imminent to the public within a few days.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Galaxy table allocation

    by grftt Apr 5, 2015 7:56 PM
    grftt grftt Apr 8, 2015 4:16 AM Flag

    Guys look at Galaxy and melco etc in HK right now up nearly 8% today as well as others ....has Galaxy found out how many tables they are getting. I know the HK market is up big today but gambling stocks especially are riding very high.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Galaxy table allocation

    by grftt Apr 5, 2015 7:56 PM
    grftt grftt Apr 6, 2015 8:50 PM Flag

    We have 11k plus more room coming online in the next 18 months the amount of same day visitors will decrease in my opinion as the find a a place to stay mid week on the strip for 125-200 a night. Several thousand stay for a cheap night in Zuhai before returning home each night anyway. These are mass players and exactly what we need to fill the gap....here is the report
    The number of visitors on package tours increased 13.2 pct
    year-on-year to 983,000 in February, according to the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). Package tour visitors from Mainland China increased 21.5% year-on-year, to 804,000, with 418,000 coming from Guangdong Province.
    Visitors from the Republic of Korea (41,000) and Hong Kong (39,000) increased 7.7 pct and 8.1 pct respectively year-on-year, whereas those from Taiwan (53,000) decreased 12 pct. In the first two months of 2015, visitors on package tours reached 1,940,000, up by 16.8 pct year-on-year.
    There were 97 hotels and guesthouses operating at the end of February 2015, providing 28,000 guest rooms, up 1 pct year-on-
    year; 5-star hotels accounted for 65.2 pct of the total supply, with 18,000 rooms.
    A total of 756,000 guests checked into hotels and guesthouses in February 2015, down by 9.9 pct year-on-year. Guests from mainland China (512,000) and Hong Kong (87,000) decreased 6.4 pct and 16.2 pct. The average length of stay of guests held stable as February 2014, at 1.4 nights.
    The average occupancy rate of hotels and guesthouses tumbled 11.3 percentage points year-on-
    year, to 80.2 pct, with 5-star hotels leading at 83.3 pct. In the first two months of 2015, hotel guests totaled 1,559,000, down by 8.9 pct year-on-year; the average occupancy rate stood at 79.8 pct,
    a decrease of 6.1 percentage points. Visitor-guests accounted for 66.5 pct of the total overnight visitors, down by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year.

    TRAVEL AGENCIES WITH MORE LOCAL CLIENTS
    Outbound residents using the services of travel agencies numbered 135,000 in Februa

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Galaxy table allocation

    by grftt Apr 5, 2015 7:56 PM
    grftt grftt Apr 6, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    Good posts guys.....when I said VIP had gone away I think you know I was generalising and yes we are fortunate to nail down Sun city the best and biggest of them all. Altira was always a worry to me being so away from the main strip in a urban area. Our market share is not down and even up yoy to 15% in the last couple of months and that's just marvellous under the circumstances.

    As far as the supply coming online I really think we will be ok, in the next 18 months we will double the room additions on the strip ...Amazing! when you think about it. I have said this before, I really believe the room rates will fall off a touch for a short while while GGR comes back strong for concessionaires with the best location. This is what I want to talk about.

    Within the next 18 months there is no concessionaire better positioned to maximise the benefit from their own and especially OTHERS room supply addition. Cod without doing anything other than altering the entrance at the back of the property (which they have now done) to get all that walk through traffic. Basically the New MGM and Wynn Palace are out back and to get to the strip they will be either walking through COD or down the side road between SCC and COD. There is a entrance also in to the casino COD on that road.

    The new addition to the Polynesian themed SCC LVS hotel tower has 2000 rooms and again it is right next to COD with talks of a bridge linking them to COD over the side road. This will complete a link up over the road to the Venetian.

    MSC will just do so well by sitting where it is, you know I gripe over the light rail but once up it will increase traffic in to the property immensely. I really think we will grab market share off the peninsular and the 5 other operators will suffer.
    Hopefully we will have seen the last of the downturn from here with the stock and start Its creep North ..... I may go Philippines this summer and drop in at COD....If I get anymore pics I will post them....good luck Dave

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Well we are on countdown folks for table allocation for Galaxy's massive addition on May 27th. So when are we going to see the actual number? Why all the secrecy, does Galaxy already know?
    Watch closely for Galaxy stock price to spike if they receive 250-300 and that would be a great indication we should receive at least get 350 on MSC as new resort.

    I made a lot of money with this stock already but got caught buying back in on the downturn, to date I am current averaged shy of 9 bucks down on break even.The one GOOD thing is now it only represents about 15% of my portfolio, compared to a hella of a lot more % when I bought in the high 3s and 4s.

    This stock as all Macau gaming stocks has a lot thrown at it the last 12 months, yep VIP went away, smoking ban, credit card usage and I guess I can live with that. The one thing to me that is inexcusable is the infrastructure delays that have dogged Macau. This is the one ingredient that the Macau government are said to strive for, more diversity for Macau visitor other than casinos. How can these resorts have diversity when the people that visit cannot get around Macau to see them anyway?

    The light rail project is a joke and way way behind schedule and crazily over budget as well as many other state projects. They can blame having low workforce but they have the envied position to have 1.3 billion population on their doorstep. They can tweak the immigration workforce allowance and have these projects finished in no time.

    I think LH will successfully bring a lot of VIP in to Manila, although they only get 50% share of the GGR from their spilt with Sy family. They have a much better tax rate that helps them in that department.

    I recently told you guys I visited Phenom Phen Cambodia, the mainlander Chinese VIP are already there. For a city sooo friggin poor, you see Bentley Rolls Royce around town quite a bit and have a dealership there that caters to them with dream cars. Yes the VIP are still kicking!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

MPEL
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