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Apple Inc. Message Board

grgsvll 106 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2016 2:45 PM Member since: Jun 20, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Trailing PE of 8

    by samsonn25 Apr 28, 2016 9:41 AM
    grgsvll grgsvll Apr 29, 2016 2:45 PM Flag

    PE ratios only mean something to those who pay a dividend or are about to pay a dividend. The price of any stock is based on those future distributions. That is why you see some of those high flyers running even higher with huge PE ratios. Now pay out half of those earnings FSLR? That would be almost a 6% divvy. the stock would react about the same as Amgen pharma (amgn) did when they started paying a divvy. It tripled, bring the divvy down to about a 2.5% rate.

    So pay a divvy FSLR!!!

  • Reply to

    REGI DeForest (Madison) Plant opening

    by jim6b Apr 27, 2016 7:28 PM
    grgsvll grgsvll Apr 29, 2016 2:28 PM Flag

    I think the issue with Tyson on feedstock is that their renderer is Darling, and has been for decades. And we know of course that down the road from the Geismer plant is a bigger plant making fuel with this same feedstock owned by Darling and their partner Valero, one of the biggest refiners in our country. They produce a lot of their obligated RINs, per the RFS2 mandate. That makes sense. That cuts out all middle men. Tyson tried this approach by teaming directly with SYNM, but that did not turn out so well. They did not have the refining expertise of a Valero and Tyson, the source of all those fats, is no Darling. We found out that its a bit more complicated. Needed to do some filtering and centrifuges were installed, etc...

    I found this all out myself with a small biodiesel plant I was involved with and we got out grease from Darling. They raised and raised the cost and got a share of the tax credit. They were the winners. I got out early so it was a "learning experience". Anyway, it is an issue. Hope it turns out well for Regi. Thank god they have lots of other plants and the synm plant represents a smaller and smaller percentage of their total. Biodiesel is so much easier than renewable diesel.

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy

    by dresfandiari Mar 10, 2016 6:32 PM
    grgsvll grgsvll Apr 28, 2016 11:36 AM Flag

    Interesting timing on your comment. Almost the bottom. It has almost doubled since then. I guess the old saying..."when others are selling, buy" is true. Or something like that. Now what? Who knows.

  • Reply to

    REGI DeForest (Madison) Plant opening

    by jim6b Apr 27, 2016 7:28 PM
    grgsvll grgsvll Apr 28, 2016 11:29 AM Flag

    Thanks for bringing that up plum. Good stuff. I forgot about some of that. I do remember the Tyson part of the deal though. I wonder if they are still getting some of their feedstock from them?

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 28, 2016 11:22 AM Flag

    good point...but not "reducing overall consumption", reducing the "rate of increase in consumption". Still using more oil and that will continue. More Jets, more shipping with big ships, trains, trucks, etc... More plastics, more pharmaceuticals, more gear and machine oils, more tires, more steel and aluminum (petroleum coke and coal tar pitch used to make electrodes and anodes), etc.....

    If not for those energy eff. you mentioned and a move towards elec. cars (even though cars are a small portion of overall oil use), the rate of increase would far outweigh supply. Finally, those innovations are born out of high oil prices in the first place. So its a crazy business that I would not recommend getting into, even though its a fascinating industry. I had a geologist, a paleontologist, archeologist, an electron microscope (and a technician to use it), xray diffraction, carbon dating, a huge lab filled with equipment and chemists......it was great being a petroleum engineer....while it lasted.

    There will always be a demand for all those hydrogen and carbon atoms in the ground. What is interesting to me now is what REGI is working on with Exxon....making hydrocarbons. That would be a huge game changer, especially as making them on the surface requires CO2 as the carbon source so it can offset some CO2 increases as the same time. Who knows.

  • amazing call. This guy does commodities for a living. Of course, oil is closing today above $45.....almost $46, but hey...... Great call. Got him on TV. Lets see, less and less of the stuff left in the ground (ie a depleting resource), more and more people on the planet, and the largest population centers on the planet by far (china and india), who have not historically used much oil, are now gearing up to use lots of the stuff. They are combined....about 9 times as many people as the US.

    And nothing will ever happen in the Middle east to threaten those reserves in the very stable regimes of Iran and Iraq. Nope......oil will stay down below $1/gallon for Mr. Gartman's lifetime (there are 42 gallons in a barrel of oil....unlike beer where there is 31 gallons in a barrel).

    Great call Mr. Gartman.

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 27, 2016 12:03 PM Flag

    agreed Tom. It can be a good thing for the stock or a bad thing. Covering up losses? Or hiding big potential gains? Don't like either. They do keep buying up their own shares and the float is now so small......makes me think its the latter.

    Stock doing is daily drop in last morning....usually to run up in afternoon. Close above $10 today?

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 26, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    That sounds like a story from where I used to work. I was in charge of CARs (Capital Authorization Requests) for the Corporation.....now Bankrupt. The owners were a NY Private Equity. They had me write up a purchase of equipment overseas.......and a check was mailed out to one of the owners when he flew over to London. It was a public traded company.

    Yep......the level of #$%$ that goes on over in Wall Street. The biggest theft of all is how they steal trillions from all the 401ks out there, with undeclared fees. In fact, the money I have here in this stock is a 401k rollover from that corporation. Was a nice tax break at the time. I would never put real money in this market.....just the tax avoiding games.

    To answer your question....good question....who knows. Not I.

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 25, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    lots of bad predictions from the past. Lots of good...or lucky ones as well. Who cares. Flip a coin. More and more cars are going elec. whether anyone likes it or not. Cars started out elec. in late 1800s. The elec. motor is more efficient than a combustion engine. But so what. I will drive my gas pickup until someone makes one elec. that is cheaper. Elec. motors have much more torque. Good for towing. Pollution levels are not much different since lots of gear and machine oils go into building EVs. And lots of fossil fuels go into making aluminum, steel, glass, tires, etc... Anyway, agree about all the enviro. weenies out there.....but also lots of bubbas out there too. When EPA mandated new emissions for outboard engines in 2006, the bubbas said "no way they were selling their 2-stroke Johnson". They were the first to go out and buy the new 4-stroke engines because of its much better performance, reliability, and fuel economy, not to mention no smell or noise.

    So its going to happen....slowly. It is happening....slowly.

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 25, 2016 1:15 PM Flag

    problem lone ranger......the tax man. There is an 18.5 cent per gallon federal tax on both gasoline and diesel, and on top of that, a much higher state tax. With EV.....the regulators/tax man gets nothing. Think that is going to happen? If you do, vote for Bernie!

  • Reply to

    So we can play "I'VE GOT A SECRET"

    by enuffofthis35 Apr 21, 2016 4:34 PM
    grgsvll grgsvll Apr 22, 2016 1:07 PM Flag

    I gotcha. Thought there would be more other than them falling under an old SEC confidentiality rule for the next 5 years. I think it is simply as they do not want to reveal any proprietary info. for as long as they can. Nothing to it.

    Interesting price action with oil up pretty big today. Down as usual this time of day. Waiting on that late day run up.....to continue on with its recent trend. Can it close over $10? We shall see. I would bet it will today, here in the next 3 hours of trading.

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 22, 2016 12:39 PM Flag

    Small pullback? 10%? Or about $9.00? That would be nice. With my tax situation, I have to trade much bigger moves or hold past a year. fun to watch though.

  • Reply to

    So we can play "I'VE GOT A SECRET"

    by enuffofthis35 Apr 21, 2016 4:34 PM
    grgsvll grgsvll Apr 22, 2016 12:10 PM Flag

    I do not think we know what you are talking about regarding a secret or agreement. Poor David no longer an executive director. That sucks for him probably. So what are you talking about?

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 21, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    and I see it hit $10.0 this morning. Hope that was a GTC order, not a day order. Great trade if it was. If I were a good trader, I would do the same thing with some of my "dry powder" shares I bought down in that range. Most however, were bought up around here.

    Let me know when and if you are thinking about buying back in again? Thanks bestchie.....good luck

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 21, 2016 12:31 PM Flag

    Interesting. Might be a great move. Lets us know if you get back in and where on one of those big REGI dips. Good Luck.

  • Reply to

    Batteries????

    by enuffofthis35 Apr 20, 2016 12:00 PM
    grgsvll grgsvll Apr 21, 2016 12:29 PM Flag

    So are you saying it is or is not them? You are usually right jim, so won't argue. REGI (stock symbol for this stock that makes biodiesel), does indeed have a construction arm that puts together and modifies biodiesel systems. Whether or not this story is about them.....I would still doubt it because REGI did not put out a press release. But I do like the price action last week. Higher highs, buying on dips.

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 20, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    useless comments from someone like you who obviously got burned....well....going on ignore. Bye-bye.

  • Reply to

    Batteries????

    by enuffofthis35 Apr 20, 2016 12:00 PM
    grgsvll grgsvll Apr 20, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    I believe that article was in error. Is the guy they quoted from RES and employee of REGI? Anyway, moving on.....Even though down 20 cents this morning, I believe it closes up by end of day....showing a long term trend reversal. Buying on dips going on.

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 19, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    yeah you did. What is interesting is it is just now past the mid point between its 52 week high and low. Looking at recent trends in this stocks performance, oil price, and the overall market, I would say there is better than a 50/50 chance of it going higher from here.

    I am still waiting on some info. out of Geismer though. Actually, scratch that..... I hope they sell the place to Darling and Valero, not that they would buy it.

    But back to stock price.....it has been a slow and steady ride back up. I like it.

  • grgsvll grgsvll Apr 18, 2016 12:55 PM Flag

    but no....she breaks the trend of the last few weeks. She has flat lined staying up. why trend analysis or tech analysis is a waste of time. Might as well flip a coin. Lets see what she does last 3 hours. Back up? That would really throw a wrench it the tea leave reading folks cups.

    and thanks again for the thumbs down.

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