That was fast. Do not understand what drives RIN prices....just follow them. 70 cent bid and 72 cents ask Regi gets either 1.5 times that for each gallon of biodiesel or 1.7 times that for renewable diesel out of the synm plant they bought. That is significant. Bodes well for regi. So all this good news has happened as of late...from expansion plans, Tax credit going through, ending lawsuit, higher RINs.....and the stock price has not moved due to lower oil prices and the whole sector getting sold off by the big funds. Regi has a big ownership in this company in terms of shares....I bet they buyback some more shares soon.
It is kind of nuts what is going on out there in the commodity world....no one expected such a collapse in prices. These guys do indeed need to reel back in those big supply side projects. Now they are saying it is the Fed cutting back on buying back bonds that is causing the commodities to drop. Not sure how that works....but whatever. Fact is....commodities are dropping. Supply and demand out of balance. So as you say....why give china all this cheap stuff? They should focus all efforts on cutting costs.
???? Not sure about that. Rio is spending billions and billions for a new market to increase supply...at the very wrong time. and they are having problems with the Govt. Not good. Might have to write off the whole thing up there in Mongolia. Commodities are in the toilet and will stay there for awhile. The Rio, bhp, vale, and others will be tested. Lets see who is swimming with their shorts on when the tide goes out.
oh yeah...we remember Mr. Agee. That whole story is "so yesterday as they say. Now its about show me the numbers..the production...the profit. That is why I like Regi. Use others technology and make it happen. Crank out the fuel....today, not in 2030. Who the heck knows what happens between now and then. Research is research....it has never made a good investment standing on its own. Airbus and or the oil companies are doing lots of research in this area...that no one knows about. There are a thousand stories out there like this.
Look up the history of CVX dividends. It is an interesting read. In short....they have always paid a dividend, never dropped it...never reduced it. Only up and up. Had you invested in the 80s in this stock....and never sold it....well.....that is what one calls a "good investment". The money has and always will go to the common shareholders. Not many of these stocks left out there. This IS the stock to own. OK....a few others out there as well...like AMGN.....but not many others.
let me sum it all up for you. This stock is at all time lows for a reason. You can try and find all the reasons to invest you want....but you will lose....because that is what is happening....period. Most investors are leaving this space...more sells than buys...hence the lower price. So how to play it? Its not just going long. Not yet anyway.
sorry wolf...if that is what you do...then you are a loser. And for silver guy thinking I was talking to him....no....I actually think it is going to 25 cents.....and then lower from there before a reverse split...then god knows what. Have not been long with these losers in about a decade. Anyone long here is a loser by definition. WLT will NOT survive.
OK....so that is a max 237 million. Jim above says 282 million. Jim also mentioned they will get 1/3 of total tax credit....but did not make clear he was talking just about those gallons they did not produce. They get almost all of those (they do get all of synm plant gallons).
So you guys have made it clear we do not know exactly how much cash they will receive in the mail from our friends in Washington (OK...sleez bags in Washington). Its a lot. I like using the number 1/4 billion because the stock is not reflecting any of this new info. as of late. So does it really matter? This is very strange.
On another note, I hope to god Seattle wins tomorrow over Arizona. Home field throughout....and a repeat. GO HAWKS!!!
Great info. Odialt. Very very good stuff. I wonder if they will apply this to fuel oil? Like fuel Oil #2, basically diesel, or one of the other designations....like fuel oil #6....which is a much higher sulfur level. There is a huge amount of fuel oil out there in use. That is the world I live in. We have fuel oils in emergency generators, backup generators, ships, boilers, etc... Heating oil usually references those up in the N. East heating their homes like my Dad used to. Had this crazy boiler in the basement. I was always a bit scared of that thing. Reminded my of iron man. Anyway, I digress. Thanks again Odie one..... Mid teens before end of year?
since they signed the tax credit.....that's all profit. Amazing the stock is just slowly crepping up...from a buck lower where it dropped to. Still not back to days before they announced the end of the lawsuit and the tax credit ($1/4 billion in cash). ?????? If this continues, I imagine regi buys back a lot of stock with that money.....like all of it.
you could be right financekid299. The technical issues facing oil producers (this opinion coming from a petroleum engineer, not a "money guy") is that every well starts at its maximum production rate..drops exponentially until the transient period is over (distance to boundary of reservoir), then declines slower as the pressure of the reservoir is drawn down. So with lower oil prices, they will not be drilling new wells right now...well, not as many anyway. So production...and hence income will be declining. Those numbers will not show up for 3 months. The drop was indeed an over-reaction...(oil companies are hedged into the future). But the buyback of bottom feeders show how little wallstreet understands the business....from a technical point of view.
So this might be a "dead cat bounce" as investors like to say. Cannot let my wife here me say that.....she would kill me.
and its just casually mentioned like its no big deal. Huge...#$%$&in huge! No more threat....no more lawyer fees.....and a better running plant? Sounds like maybe a sellout to Neste? Just kidding. Lets not go there.
Good Job REGI management.
actually.....it will take a lot more to get this stock to the OTC:BB. First a delisting notice because the stock has been below a buck for too long. This gives them 6-months to get it above a buck for 30 days. Most companies do a reverse split...a 1:10 at this time to stay above that threshold and even get it above $5 so mutual funds can buy the stock. So I would bet that this does not happen in 2015. However, bankruptcy protection can. That is where the common gets wiped out and debt renegotiated with the help of a judge.
Oh #$%$.....I remember that stock....owned some of that. Got out in time. All that stuff was flying back in early 2000. Of course I was also working at Walter Industries and making good money. A big conglomerate. Fresh out of Bankruptcy.....hitting on all cylinders...
That's funny...you remember him, eh? The way you were presenting the specific data.....reminded me of him. Now if you had mentioned your spreadsheet.......
Agree with the hold. This is a rapidly growing company.
you like his math? Too funny. Always quote the California price and do not look to future ethanol or corn prices. Yes, they hedge by selling millions of warrants on the stock. Last time it was strike prices around the $7 to $8 range....giving those buyers of the warrants the option to cash in if the price went above that. It did and they cashed in....forcing the stock back down here. It limited the upside of earnings....but also has the same effect on the downside. Price floor in this range. I am a buyer at $7.
thanks sfcer and bumpy...I mean brenters....good stuff. Its a bit complicated though so can you guys just sum it all up in one word for me?