Stock still can't get over 4. I guess the market is now taking a "wait and see" approach to old TEAR. That's ok with me. Sales will come. It would be nice to see some positive momentum though.
Based on the Barclays webex news should be out in a week or two. Extensions at or near current rates should be strongly positive to stock, even moderate reductions should be slightly positive given the overdone negative sentiment. All UDW assets contracted and perfectly positioned for next expected upturn in rates.
They see dropping rates as new capacity hits with greatest impact to oldest rigs. No surprise there. NE was highlighted as having the highest level of contracted #$%$s next year. That combined with the divestiture of old equipment should position them among the best for riding out any downturn.
Thanks for posting. This research note is what the company press release should have looked like. The PR was gibberish. Notice that there was even lower than average volume on the day and the stock couldn't gain any steam. We are due for a pop above 4 but need a catalyst.
Uncertainty about dividend.. It is smart to take a balanced approach to using the cash flow, but I think the market was expecting a juicy dividend.
Uncertainty about rigs in Brazil.
Wait and see about fixing tax structure until next year.
No talk of share repurchases.
The good from the presentation...
"I am not going to add capacity to this market"
"A new rig has about 8% downtime. Our rigs are at about 2%"
"I expect all of our rigs in Mexico to roll into new contracts with Pemex"
Just listened to the presentation replay and followed along with the slides.
"We just realized a couple of days ago that we will have a 40-50% tax rate" -- huh?
"Somebody probably realized this spin tax structure was inefficient, but we already had the IRS ruling so we did it anyway" -- huh?
Today's price action smells to me like an effort to shake out all of the weak hands prior to the corporate presentation this afternoon. My guess is that there will be a strong move up tomorrow once there is some actual context from management for investors to chew on.
This was not "new" news per se, but I think its still "big" news nonetheless.
1) Nobody liked the funky "footnote" to the fleet status report that stuck around so long indicating this contract was not signed.
2) Management's credibility is strengthened significantly since they downplayed the "footnote" on conference calls, indicating confidence the contract would get done.
3) The new rate of $585,860 is 23% higher than the old dayrate, despite the fact that this is PACD's oldest rig. (2010)
Now let's get those newbuilds contracted, and its off to the races!
That will bring shares to new lows, as every 500 index fund will be forced to sell regardless of the prospects of the stock. This may be the opportunity, as RDC is one of the few offshore companies still liked by analysts and their contract coverage is quite good. The trick will be in guessing the bottom.
“What’s most exciting is that we have leapfrogged the development of a standalone IgE antibody test for allergy and have developed a whole new platform that combines a panel of tests, including IgE and potentially other biomarkers and tiers along with osmolarity, all on one chip, all quickly and easily at the point of care, and all at one time with one sample,” he added.
You need to wait for the investor/analyst day. They were light on details in the earnings call.
Seriously, though - some of the analysts covering TEAR aren't so bad. Most had revenue projections well below company guidance prior to the latest revision downward. Not a ringing endorsement of management, I know. Despite the growing pains, I think we will ultimately see this product find success. The focus on quality implementations now will make for much more durable earnings than the previous approach of placing as many units as possible without the proper training.
Welcome! Always room for another bag holder here. If you could please get Gaga to buy, there won't be any bashers left on this board. That would be an accomplishment!
Fly on the wall reporting a ratings cut from Strong Buy. Feltl now with the most pessimistic view on TEAR, of all analysts covering. They are only expecting 77% increase from here.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yes, 20% growth in revenue quarter over quarter isn't shabby (assuming they can hit it). If you apply that rate out to the end of next year, you end up with about the same number that analysts had estimated for next year anyway.
Listen to the call recording. R&D has developed an allergy test that will allow multiple testing from one chip. Investor day event 3rd week of September (9/23) to roll out details.