I think all the press of competition in the segment and the slow pace of new unit roll-outs is dragging on PZZI. 10 new units in 2013 is pretty slow. They need to open 10 a quarter asap to get this rolling again.
I don't understand being short on this either but I don't think this will move much until franchise units start opening. I would like to see the pace of unit roll out increase. I guess it takes a while to find a good location, let alone 8 or 10 or 38. 2014 should be sweet, though.
Ok. I think I forgot to subtract out last Qs development numbers from this revenue guess. Like I said, I'm not an numbers guy.
So maybe total rev @ $11.62M
But that still leaves room for profit $200-300K, which would surprise me.
Ok. At first I thought you were high, literally and figuratively. But I think both your numbers are low. Last Q they had over $11M in rev. This Q saw several new commitments to P5 franchise units (75 x development fees) and two new P5 franchise units opened (franchise fee and sales royalties). I think franchise revenue will be up by quite a bit to around 1.27M. Company stores sales include 2 new stores = 2.5M. Food and supply sales I'm guessing are going to be about flat to minor growth from last Q - I believe we are no longer bleeding PI units and will see a net of Zero domestic. So food and supplies = 8M
Therefore total rev = $11.77M
I expect the expense side to be somewhat similar to last Q, minus the impairment, which will be about $11.36M
Of course, management always seems to find ways to spend money these days. But if it supports growth, then that's a good thing.
I wouldn't trust my numbers since I'm not a numbers guy and I've been skeptical that they could turn a profit before next year. And something goofy always seems to pop up. But I'm starting to believe that we may be pleasantly surprised next month. A $250-400K profit seems reasonable to me. Holy buckets, did I just say that? They also will have some nice tax benefits to use.
I'll believe when I see it. Can't wait.
I'm thinking it's something to do with the $5M offering. Maybe big time minority investor, maybe big corporate expansion plans.
I think the rate per franchiser is about 3-4/yr. I would be impressed with 25 more new openings by July 1 2014. It's the second half of 2014 that could really ramp up, especially if they get more area development agreements in place and new corporate areas.
Thanks Noah. See. Good news. Right now, they're on track to open 4-5 stores per Q. This should continue to rise each Q. Should be about 10/Q by July. Bring on the new territories.