Greece may well recover, or at least keep afloat, but the banks are a different story, the latest moves are because people fear more RSS may be coming
and to add, one of ALU's "claim to fame" is its China presence...if you take into account China's attitude lately towards foreign behemoths, that's not a very stable "presence".
I'm curious as to how shareholders like yourself are feeling about the tender offer, do u feel the 0.55 exchange for NOK insulting and/or ridiculous?
And given the size of your holdings, I'm sure you thought this thru, would you consider holding the stock past Dec 22 waiting for a further exchange offer? Would it be more advantageous?
For people who are wondering, if NOK gets only 50-95% of the ALU shares, they have to come back with an extended exchange offer (possibly cash?) I'm not sure how that would be placed though. Anyone with more info, please elaborate.
Honestly, the fate of all 4 major Greek banks depends on the medium term developments of the Greek economy. All four are priced for bankruptcy by the markets, as we have seen. This ain't happening. "Near bankrupt" companies don't get $2.5 billion in new capital from PRIVATE funds, as in the case of Alpha.
In addition, of the 4 banks, Alpha has probably the best financials and outlook. Pireaus is widely reported in Greece to have the worst, hence the government aid.
So do I see downside? maybe in the very short term, but again $.50 a share is actually $.01 pre-split. The upside is what would be interesting here. This could easily go to $.05-.10 a share pre-split (or $2.5-5 post split), in a matter of a few trading days, when the dust settles.
ALBKF are the new shares (about 1.2 billion of them) that were issued at 0.3 euros book value and issued to investors at 2 euros (and hence the starting price). If you are not an EU institutional investor and/or HNW entity, they don't apply to you.
For the rest of us, we got the "dog" ALBKD @ a 50:1 RSS, which means that a $.51 share price is basically $.01 pre-split.
that Alpha did NOT require government aid for its capital increase last week. It raised about $2.5 billion euros in new private funds, primarily institutional investors and HNW individuals (NBG and Piraeus bank did require public aid). If that's not a vote of confidence, I don't know what is.
Or let's put it another way, do we know of any European banks that can raise $2.5 billion in new money in one week?
another way to look at it is that the company lost about $6000 on your shares alone, over the last 12 mos. :)
So basically they had a really lousy quarter and the market thinks they're back to 2012 all over again. I wanted to take another look at the financials, to see if there is any silver lining anywhere. I glanced at the balance sheet and I examined some numbers that usually go unnoticed. Retained Earnings: - $1.04 billion. Yep, this company has managed to lose over a billion dollars over the years. How they finance it? stock issuance of course, Capital Surplus: $1.07 billion.
I have owned this stock a few times over the last 6-7 years, last position was sold last year. I wanted to see if this might be a good opportunity to get back in. But looking at the big picture, this might be the classic example of a company with a great product line, which cannot be managed profitably as is.
NBG was delisted on Friday by the NYSE. It last traded at 8 euro cents and then suspended at the ASE also. NBG has the right to appeal the NYSE decision, but it's anyone's guess how long that takes. I suppose a formal reverse split will easily satisfy the requirement of min $1.
I have to say ALBKY looks good at this stage.
People don't look at D/E when it comes to Greek banks, they look at the stock dilution. Fundamentally they are no more risky than Spanish or Italian banks. But they are suffering from "country risk" right now.
There was one respite on May 1, since mid April the rest were down days. I haven't seen a dog of a stock like this in a very long time.
Alak, you certainly must be disappointed with the stock performance since late July. We're not talking weeks now (ie. a breather), we're talking months. It looks like the momentum is long gone and as soon as people realize earnings are coming up, they take profits or bail any way. No matter how you slice it, this doesn't look too good.
ok, and the stock went from $3, on August 2, to $3.50 now.
I don't see much insight in her posts. For one thing, patent rights? ok, let's try to enforce that with Huawei and ZTE. People tend to forget, Zhone still does most of its business overseas.
oh and btw, I think most of us are looking at margins first.