Alak, you certainly must be disappointed with the stock performance since late July. We're not talking weeks now (ie. a breather), we're talking months. It looks like the momentum is long gone and as soon as people realize earnings are coming up, they take profits or bail any way. No matter how you slice it, this doesn't look too good.
ok, and the stock went from $3, on August 2, to $3.50 now.
I don't see much insight in her posts. For one thing, patent rights? ok, let's try to enforce that with Huawei and ZTE. People tend to forget, Zhone still does most of its business overseas.
oh and btw, I think most of us are looking at margins first.
It's called "dilution": 7.5 million shares extra. Also, they sold them at 25 cents plus warrants, which SHOULD give you some indication of the company's own valuation. In any event, I warned everyone here back in July.
WELL SAID...I'm tired of all the idiotic "look, it's going to $8, wait, $20 is a possibility" without offering any reason, as I would be also tired of shorts who have no clear idea why they're shorting.
Any buyout proposal will have to satisfy Mory's ego, who owns over 10% of the company btw. This is not your typical acquisition situation.
Interesting. In summary: he took a short position on July 23 at $2.32 and he's surprised at the massive loss he's taking now. He claims it took a big bite out of his profits shorting futures. He appears to be cocky in his replies and states the markets these days belong to day traders.
A couple of points: either he hasn't learned anything from the 1999-2002 day-trading days, or he's not old enough to have participated back then. Either way, he should be ignored.
I've come to believe that people following strictly technical analysis (like him) are not smart enough to do fundamental analysis (John Bollinger excluded).
the thumbs down bother you? these days they come from shorts, they are annihilated and only thing they can do is "thumbs down" :)
Now, as far as going places, we will see...operating in the black after a zillion of quarters is not exactly a over-achievement.
who said corporate buyers are smart. This company was "begging" to be bought out 6-12 months ago. Now Mory can ask for a 30% premium. It's gonna cost 3-4 times as much. Having said that, valuations may quickly catch up with this company, it's not like all of a sudden their problems are solved.
Btw, Alak or anyone else, is Mory still giving up on his salary? how about bonuses?
Btw, what portfolio service are you using? it went through $1.50 some time ago :)
I just wanted to comment that your numbers here are correct, based on the assumptions, but the way you described them are not accurate, or maybe confusing to some newbies here. What Kirk said is that for every revenue dollar over the break-even point, 97% of it should go to the bottom line (subtracting 3% commissions). Now products are not manufactured for free, there is a cost of goods sold, so with the gross margins being about 34-35%, that leaves us with 33-35 cents being added directly to net income (which corresponds to the numbers you used).
I appreciate your points. But I think at 40 cents it's too risky. The company itself is selling an extra 8 million shares, which include warrants one-for-one, for 25 cents.
ZHNE is a turnaround story now. If a couple of institutional investors took notice, then 4-5 million shares is absolutely nothing.
...or $21 million?
I think this company is in the right market segment, but a quick look at their financials and history reveals the following:
* 3 + years as an established company with $9,000 in revenue and $2.5 million in losses. Why is it talking so long for R&D, testing and sales? They are developing smoothies, not a new rocket! If customers don't translate interest into orders, there must be a reason.
* From December '12 to March '13 they sold 1.6 million shares (that included warrants) at $0.25. Currently they are offering an additional 8 million shares (also including warrants) at $0.25. Dilution, anyone?
* No LTD (long term debt), which means no bank will lend to them.
* "During December 2012 we received a cash advance from a relative of an officer of the Company in the amount of $30,272." (from the latest 10-K). Desperation? perhaps. No matter what, you don't see that very often.
* From the same 10-K: Consulting fees: 2013: $569,514 2012:$82,429
Personnel costs: 2013: $434,747 2012: $0
They have 5 employees and 3 consultants, someone is getting paid handsomely for very little performance.
I reiterate that the concept is good, my intention is not to bash the company, just to point out that it's not worth 40 cents.
Yes, even more, it could go back up to 2011 pre-split level of $30-$40. That is if you believe that Greece and its largest bank will survive into 2014. I think that's a good bet.
If you bought over the last month and have huge losses, don't take the loss, wait it out.
yes, exactly, some people who call for a $1 a share and then buy are forgetting that this would be $0.02 effectively and that's not a good bet.
and some people (like hollandisback) need to realize that $3 @ 1 million shares is the same #$%$03 @ 100 million shares, reverse splits only have a psychological impact.
they hope Greece will stay afloat, that's why...there's no EU if Greece, and others that follow, go belly up, when are some people going to get this thru their heads.