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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

gtstockreaper 281 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 18, 2014 11:18 AM Member since: Sep 25, 2013
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  • gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 18, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    Yeah, but if Twitter changed the allowed number of characters in a text to change by 5, I'm sure we'd be drowning in new articles and valuation updates.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A different company

    by superlithe Jul 17, 2014 7:11 AM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 17, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    No, actually they verbiage in the covenants are very favorable to a buy-out... if fact, I think the verbiage even says "change of control" versus actually saying acquisition, etc. All of the very onerous make-wholes and restriction are specifically voided in a change-of-control event.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A different company

    by superlithe Jul 17, 2014 7:11 AM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 17, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    My understanding is that the Senior also restricts the amount of bonds that can be bought back (even if the bonds are the Senior) and I think the restriction is pretty low. TC was pretty much over a barrel when they made that deal and the Senior verbiage made sure they stayed strapped down tight for as long as possible :-(

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Options Trading

    by hrd1539 Jul 15, 2014 1:18 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 16, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    Ooops. You are completely correct. The student has become the master ;-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    must be the T-meds

    by jefferie1979 Jul 15, 2014 12:55 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 15, 2014 7:44 PM Flag

    And you guys said it would be sub-$2 by now. What's going on?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q2 estimate

    by carlrich Jul 14, 2014 7:35 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 15, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    Not quite right, but thanks for trying to put on the negative spin. Here's the real story:

    The 6.5% are senior and have the highly punitive make-whole pre-payment premium which expires 12/15. These 6.5% senior obligations also have a clause that prohibits any other bond debt from being paid off first. So once 12/15 rolls around then TC can pay off or refi the senior and once the senior is out of the way, the other bonds can be refi'ed of paid off to because they have no such punitive clauses.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Options Trading

    by hrd1539 Jul 15, 2014 1:18 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 15, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    You understand perfectly

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TC is notorious!!!

    by ggray1956 Jul 15, 2014 3:05 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 15, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    ggray wins the award today for most clueless post.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Options Trading

    by hrd1539 Jul 15, 2014 1:18 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 15, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    So what I would do is the above and then in the next 1.5 years, I'd be saving cash into that account so when Jan 16 arrives... you'd have $30K in cash (so I wouldn't have to sell to buy TC worse-case scenario), $30K in dividend stock plus the 1.5 years of dividends, and 30K $3 Calls in TC... all for just $60K.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Options Trading

    by hrd1539 Jul 15, 2014 1:18 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 15, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    It's because I changed mental tracks during my email... The "cash" doesn't have to be actual cash, just your account needs to be valued at an amount higher than your Put obligation.

    So here's what you could do with a theoretical $30K: Sell 300 Puts, Buy 300 Calls, and then turn around and put the $30K into a safe dividend paying stock. The only two caveats to this awesome trade is if the dividend-paying stock dipped under the $30K value and that you will have to sell the stock for cash in Jan 2016 IF tc is trading below $3 then ... since you're obligated to buy the tc stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Options Trading

    by hrd1539 Jul 15, 2014 1:18 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 15, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    A lot of experience in options. My suggestion?

    Sell $3 Jan 16 puts ($.95) and buy $3 Jan 16 calls ($.95) in a 1:1 ratio. You'll effectively get the calls for free and the only thing you will risk is having to buy TC stock for $3 in Jan 16... which isn't really much of a risk at all.

    The only thing is that you will have to have the cash in your account to cover the possible put the whole time until 2016 (or you close the position). If you have the cash and don't mind it sitting idle, then a no brainer.

    If you only want to go long with calls... I always split my purchase if I'm wavering between two good choices.

    As for "Will TC be at least $5 by 2016?" I am very long TC and I believe it will be, but even I would warn you against listening to anyone that is going to "promise" you that TC will be above $5 in Jan 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TC down .07 PM

    by foogie88 Jul 14, 2014 8:54 AM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 14, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    I'll say the same thing to you as I say to the people who get all excited when TC is up pre- or after- .... those don't matter for TC. TC is to thinly traded outside of market hours to mean anything. Those 75K pre-market shares that you're basing your snark on, are 4% of TC's average day volume.

    In fact, TC is showing green right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    pps today SO FAR spot on

    by foogie88 Jul 11, 2014 1:25 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 11, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    Yes, I still maintain that the large volumes post-Tmed-conversion without any material pps movement is a favorable sign of the shares churning from weak hands to strong hands. A lot of volume on big up-days and down-days are momentum traders jumping in and out. Large volumes on flat days like this are more easily attributed to longer-term holders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    good one

    by jefferie1979 Jul 11, 2014 10:38 AM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 11, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    If anyone is saying $0.30 for Q2, then they are using COGM instead of COGS in their calculation which means they are wrong.

    I don't think you should title it "pumping" for the longs that do our analysis and say: "I think revenue will be W, which means they'll earn Y per share, which means with a P/E of X the stock should be Z. Since we're not at Z, I think it's the debt that's scaring investors, but once people realize that the cash flow will be enough to handle the debt, we're going to get to Z."

    At that point the investment thesis can be debated and W, X, Y, and Z can be argued over.

    Have you been to message boards where there is actual pumping? One line snippets claiming inside knowledge of earnings, drug testing results, buy outs or simply unjustified stuff like "This is going to go up 30% tomorrow, get in now", etc, etc.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 11, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    I am. Net Income always uses COGS not COGM (cost of goods manufactured). There might be some fixed costs that are not allocated into the FCA (fixed cost absorption) so that there might be a slight favorability from that prior quarter sale, but I would be shocked if it was material.

    That said, cash is king for TC until the debt is gone, so getting all of H1's sales in H1 is a very good thing for TC... and us :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 11, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    Provisional payments are not a set %. Here is the definition: This payment is based on volume loaded on ship and a preliminary assessment of metal content. After the metal is smelted, the smelter and TC settle up based on actual metal quantity contained in each shipment. This occurs about 60-90 days after shipment.

    Meaning that the balance is going to be immaterial unless the initial assessment is significantly wrong... which I doubt.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 10, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    I might be overly optimistic, but I actually took the high-volume mostly-flat results the last few days as a positive sign considering the Tmeds recently converted (and not all of them where hedged)... I read it as shares churning from weak hands to stronger hands that want to be long for a longer timeline.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 9, 2014 7:01 PM Flag

    So the real question is: Who were the SUCKERS who sold to them.. MWAHAHAHAAAA!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gtstockreaper by gtstockreaper Jul 7, 2014 10:25 PM Flag

    Please do me the favor of looking at the 6 month chart of Detour Gold (DRGDF).

    We did our DD on TC, everything that matters is actually trending better than we had hoped (anyone else here expecting $14 Moly, $3.20 Cu, and $1300 Au in June? Really?), BUT.... this is a freaking mining company people!!! The pps is NOT going to trade on our DD, it's going to trade on RESULTS... and those results are not released yet. Patience. We are almost to the production/sales release this week and then the Q2 CC next month. Patience.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Assuming robust production numbers?

    by larrry46 Jul 7, 2014 11:29 AM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 7, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    The sales data is released with the production numbers. With sales and production, you can very accurately forecast TC's Q2 results since their cost structure is very linear.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TC
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