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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

gtstockreaper 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 14, 2014 1:45 PM Member since: Sep 25, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Production results

    by jimclancy464 Oct 14, 2014 7:13 AM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Oct 14, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    ~52% to RGLD.... unfortunately

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I couldn't help myself

    by gtstockreaper Oct 9, 2014 12:06 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Oct 9, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    I enjoy being honest and transparent about my positions and my motives. I'm investing in an undervalued asset and I have a long time horizon. You should save up your venom for TC day traders and weak hands... Your spouting of jibberish might actually work on them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gtstockreaper by gtstockreaper Oct 9, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    I was not going to add any more to my TC holdings on this dip, but the divergence of metal pricing today with the TC share price plus the fact that TC's RSI is ~29.... I couldn't control myself. Added another 5K.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gtstockreaper by gtstockreaper Oct 2, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Am I mistaken that most of the costs of Mt M (being in BC) are going to be in Canadian dollars? And if so, isn't Mt M going to have even lower costs?

  • Reply to

    Deutsche Bank Conference

    by gtstockreaper Sep 30, 2014 8:52 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Oct 1, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    Light, your thinking seems to forget that C&M cost $20M per year.

    C&M 2015 = -20M and C&M 2016 = -20M for total of -40M at end of 2016 when bonds start to be repaid.

    Strip 2015 = -40M and Mining 2016 = 40M ($10 moly with $8 cost - I think that it is too high but being conservative) for a total of 0M at end of 2016.

    So it seems to me that C&M is the opposite of "cash conservation".

  • Reply to

    Deutsche Bank Conference

    by gtstockreaper Sep 30, 2014 8:52 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Oct 1, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    I'm writing IR at lunch to ask them point blank about the cost of stripping West wall vs C&M. I plan on writing back and forth until I get a good answer. I make my living analyzing capex projects and so far I am puzzled at the C&M decision. There is OBVIOUSLY another reason behind the C&M (and it isn't the permitting because a simple answer like, "We will strip when the new phase's permitting is complete, but we must allow time for BAML (or whatever) to do their due diligence. As a environmental champion, TC supports whatever timeline BAML needs in order to complete their work." Or something like that.

    When you can make $5/lb (at $10/lb) and you're in debt, I don't see that we have the luxury of just wasting $100M on 5 yrs of C&M because you want $15+.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gtstockreaper by gtstockreaper Sep 30, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    I just listened to the conference. Perron definitely states that cash is going to be built and it is only going to be used to pay off debt. Thompson Creek is going on C&M long-term because per Perron, "We have a very unfavorable view of Moly for the next 5-6 years."

    When pushed by an analyst as to why they wouldn't strip since they have the cash and plan on building more of it, Perron says it is too risky of a move to spend cash that way and their plan is solely on building cash with Mt M and deleveraging the balance sheet. When pushed again he said they might do a limited amount of strip work.

    I was thinking we'd see some upside from having the Moly completed discounted in TC's share price and then them announcing a change to their C&M decision. Instead it seems that it's a very good thing that my timeline has always been to re-evaluate once the bonds start getting repaid/refi'ed.

    On the bright side, it was an excellent presentation about Mt M. (1) He stated that they think they will get to costs of less than $1/lb. (2) Mt M's reserves were done on significantly lower metal prices so they will be announcing new reserves at year-end and (3) Perron state that, "We'll be making a decision on the 2nd crusher based on whether we think it will get us over 60K TPD."

    A Mt M running at 70K TPD at $.99/lb would truly be a money printer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Escondida Strike - Update 2

    by just_matt_84 Sep 26, 2014 1:02 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Sep 26, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    Yes, because what really motivates union workers to work hard and efficiently is legally forcing them back into the mine. BHP just shot themselves in the foot.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Aug 22, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    I kind of feel bad that I REALLY like these stories of hardship with other moly producers. Must be how investors in other moly miners feel each time Perron has a mini-stroke and spouts nonsense about TCM's Phase 8.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Aug 21, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    I'll split the legal costs with you if it comes to that. I do not say that in jest.

    Hopefully, it will not come to that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If TC does anything with its debt other than to just build cash and wait for the make-whole premiums to expire, then I will be selling all of my shares.

    I say this an investor whose current plan is to review my TC investment in 2017 and didn't flinch at either the sub-$2 dip or the Tmed early conversion-debacle.

    This is because as an investor in a mining company, I accept both macro events and operation events as acceptable investment risks... I refuse to add "clearly stupid management and a shareholder-unfriendly BoD" to my list of investment risks.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ZZZzzz...

    by avegasdude777 Jul 30, 2014 12:10 PM
    gtstockreaper gtstockreaper Jul 30, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    In other news... Twitter's announced that it's going to change the way they show their users so that the number looks bigger (I'm not joking) and lost less money than normal due to the world cup... is up 21% today and increased their market cap to $22B. If this is the way investing works now, I'm going to have to just start stuffing my mattress with dollars and yelling at kids to stay off my lawn. F me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TC
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