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iShares Silver Trust Message Board

gtucker7848 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 9, 2014 12:40 PM Member since: Dec 17, 2011
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  • there are several potential geopolitical events that could cause the price of gold to go north of $2000 in a matter of weeks.

    (1) If at any point Russian troops (as opposed to Russian trained or funded separatists) cross the border into Ukraine. This could very likely cause US and European sanctions which would have severe global economic consequences, causing equity markets to sell off, and PM to spike substantially.

    (2) If ISIL at any point gains a foothold in Lebanon (they are currently gaining a small presence at the border with Syria) while the Israel/Gaza conflict is still hot. This could open the flood gates to other groups or nations joining the attack against Israel, and would force a broad based military and economic proxy war that the US would be forced to participate in. The risk of a global recession would be very real, causing PM to spike substantially.

    There is, of course, no way to predict if either of these events will occur. But one must ask the following question: Is a possible $150 of downside in gold (assuming 1150 was the long term bottom) worth getting your face ripped off by a $1000 spike which is easily foreseeable?

    Tuck

  • gtucker7848 gtucker7848 Jul 13, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    1280 by the end of this week.

    It might run to 1350 tomorrow morning, but as companies begin to report positive earnings, gold's rally will be over for the rest of the year.

    1050 before 1500

    I'm long 1500 shares of JDST @ 9.27, and will add 1500 more should it hit 8.50 tomorrow.

    Tuck

  • I think the relevant chart to consult right now is the inflation adjusted, 100 year monthly gold chart.

    $223 / June 1920
    $596 / February 1934

    This 14 year bull market resulted in 267% upside

    The resulting bear market, which lasted until November of 1970, saw complete retracement to $210 over a 36 year time frame, resulting in 65% losses.

    $210 / Novemeber 1970
    $1765 / October 1980

    This 10 year bull market resulted in 840% upside.

    The resulting bear market, which lasted until April 2001, saw near complete retracement to $333 over a 21 year time frame, resulting in 81% losses.

    $333 / April 2001
    $1826 / August 2011

    This 10 year bull market resulted in 548% upside.

    The resulting bear market?

    Some comments are in order:

    Gold has had only 3 sustained bull markets over the last 100 years. These bull markets tend to last 10-14 years in duration, and culminate within a couple of years after major economic disruptions (1934, 1980, 2008). The bear markets which follow tend to last at least twice as long as the preceding bull markets, particularly as the psychological effects of the economic disruptions wear off. While a compression of the volatility cycle looks likely based on available data, not enough information is available to make accurate assessments.

    Predictions?

    If the volatility cycle is being compressed, the current bear market ends some time in 2018, with gold dropping to around $493. If the historical cycle continues without compression, our current bear market could last as long as 2039, with gold dropping below $400.

    The compression model places the peak of the next bull market at $8509 in 2024. The historical model predicts $2554 in 2050.

    My personal bet is on a compressed volatility cycle, due mostly to greatly increased global economic interdependence. The amount of "safe havens" competing with gold and silver are quickly dwindling.

    I'll continue to accumulate physical PM on every significant sell-off. My next target is for $1050 gold.

    Tuck

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