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Stamps.com Inc. (STMP) Message Board

gtucker7848 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 13, 2014 5:21 PM Member since: Dec 17, 2011
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  • gtucker7848 gtucker7848 Jul 13, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    1280 by the end of this week.

    It might run to 1350 tomorrow morning, but as companies begin to report positive earnings, gold's rally will be over for the rest of the year.

    1050 before 1500

    I'm long 1500 shares of JDST @ 9.27, and will add 1500 more should it hit 8.50 tomorrow.

    Tuck

  • I think the relevant chart to consult right now is the inflation adjusted, 100 year monthly gold chart.

    $223 / June 1920
    $596 / February 1934

    This 14 year bull market resulted in 267% upside

    The resulting bear market, which lasted until November of 1970, saw complete retracement to $210 over a 36 year time frame, resulting in 65% losses.

    $210 / Novemeber 1970
    $1765 / October 1980

    This 10 year bull market resulted in 840% upside.

    The resulting bear market, which lasted until April 2001, saw near complete retracement to $333 over a 21 year time frame, resulting in 81% losses.

    $333 / April 2001
    $1826 / August 2011

    This 10 year bull market resulted in 548% upside.

    The resulting bear market?

    Some comments are in order:

    Gold has had only 3 sustained bull markets over the last 100 years. These bull markets tend to last 10-14 years in duration, and culminate within a couple of years after major economic disruptions (1934, 1980, 2008). The bear markets which follow tend to last at least twice as long as the preceding bull markets, particularly as the psychological effects of the economic disruptions wear off. While a compression of the volatility cycle looks likely based on available data, not enough information is available to make accurate assessments.

    Predictions?

    If the volatility cycle is being compressed, the current bear market ends some time in 2018, with gold dropping to around $493. If the historical cycle continues without compression, our current bear market could last as long as 2039, with gold dropping below $400.

    The compression model places the peak of the next bull market at $8509 in 2024. The historical model predicts $2554 in 2050.

    My personal bet is on a compressed volatility cycle, due mostly to greatly increased global economic interdependence. The amount of "safe havens" competing with gold and silver are quickly dwindling.

    I'll continue to accumulate physical PM on every significant sell-off. My next target is for $1050 gold.

    Tuck

  • Reply to

    I'd like to buy my next 1000 ounces...

    by gtucker7848 Jun 9, 2014 8:47 PM
    gtucker7848 gtucker7848 Jun 10, 2014 6:48 AM Flag

    I AM NOT A STACKER!!!

    You take that back, Mr. Rocket, right now!

    Actually, I simply have a goal of holding 10% of my financial assets in silver, as a long term hedge. Being relatively young yet, I like to accumulate on the way down, sort of pick my spots.

    I make my money by sticking to what I know, mainly reading balance sheets and picking US stocks with long term growth potential. Throw in the occasional penny stock and some speculative biopharma, and you have the success that is my portfolio.

    Long AAPL, KERX, TROX, SPY, JDST

    Short BAC, SLV

    Tuck

  • @ 15.50

    Can you help me out Mr. Rocket?

    Tuck

  • ZERO!

    Honestly, a short squeeze to $15-16 next week would not surprise me one bit.

    Tuck

  • Reply to

    you know someone lost a lot when...

    by ivanluchenka May 11, 2014 6:58 PM
    gtucker7848 gtucker7848 May 11, 2014 8:03 PM Flag

    It really is sad.

    The same guy made exactly $42K in SLV, IGXT, KERX, SID, CRUS, and TSLA just last week, and bragged about it on each of those MB.

    I mean, what are the chances?!?!?

    Definitely a tiny p-nis, and a lack of ethics as well.

    Tuck

  • It must be Sunday night.

    Tuck

  • Reply to

    exercept from cc

    by forgetme22 May 10, 2014 5:55 PM
    gtucker7848 gtucker7848 May 10, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    I follow, and hold a small position, in IGXT. The company has also reported a supplier based issue, raised in a CMC. The rumor is that it involves proposed packaging.

    Tuck

  • Reply to

    Is that after hour's quote dependable.

    by takemeserious2004 May 10, 2014 1:04 PM
    gtucker7848 gtucker7848 May 10, 2014 6:04 PM Flag

    Not exactly.

    Obviously approval in early June is an enormous short term catalyst. I expect a price range of somewhere between $24-28 upon approval. Any short delays will be great buying opportunities, if you expect eventual approval.

    If approval is, at any point, in serious jeopardy, this stock is basically worthless. It is a one trick pony at this point.

    After approval is granted, then the real games begin. I appears to me that KERX is gearing up to begin both production and sales on a stand alone basis. While this is risky, it also has the potential to create enormous shareholder value.

    Once KERX proves that it can steal market share away from existing competitors, the sky is the limit here. Legitimate price targets at this point are $40-60 on a take out, perhaps even more in a bidding war.

    Tuck

  • Reply to

    Is that after hour's quote dependable.

    by takemeserious2004 May 10, 2014 1:04 PM
    gtucker7848 gtucker7848 May 10, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    Yes.

    I did not buy to add to my long term position. I bought simply based on the probability that the AH price action will lead to a stronger rally on Monday.

    I'm both an investor, and a trader.

    Tuck

  • Reply to

    Is that after hour's quote dependable.

    by takemeserious2004 May 10, 2014 1:04 PM
    gtucker7848 gtucker7848 May 10, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    There is no way to know. There was not enough volume to know if either the bid or the ask was well supported.

    My guess is that we have an attempted rally on Monday, being that the stock is already seriously oversold. If the rally fails, lower support levels will likely be tested ($10.30). If it is confirmed by high volume early in the session, a short squeeze is certainly possible. The short float is very high right now, and with institutional ownership likely now well over 70%, the metrics are prime was volatility.

    I bought a block AH @ $12.75, but strictly for a trade. I have a sell order in for $13.45, which is 2/3 retracement from the recent gap down.

    This in no way effects my long term position, which is as bullish as ever.

    Tuck

  • Their purchase was complete on 4/30. They legally have 45 days to report, yet chose to do so today.

    This was a statement, and in my opinion it is better than any analyst upgrade.

    Have a good weekend, and dream of $15 KERX next week!

    Tuck

  • gtucker7848 gtucker7848 May 9, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    With all due respect bro, you sound absolutely scared to death.

  • Reply to

    gtucker

    by chinarockets_survived_again May 8, 2014 9:51 PM
    gtucker7848 gtucker7848 May 8, 2014 9:56 PM Flag

    Indeed.

    I'm starting to think silver could well retrace all the way back to $8.

    I can't think of even one reason to own it.

    Tuck

  • Do yourself a favor. Sell a little of your SLV and buy some TWTR first thing in the morning.

    Don't get me wrong, both of these names absolutely suck as investments. However, TWTR is extremely oversold, and looks to be good for a couple of bucks tomorrow.

    You know I'm right!

    Tuck

  • how many of the 8,169,376 shares that were sold today were institutionally owned. My guess would a number very close to zero.

    It never fails. Retail shareholders lack conviction, and end up selling their shares at a loss to institutions who eventually make a ton of money.

    The market is not rigged, and this process is not manipulation. It is simply the large institutions taking advantage of a lack of conviction.

    They ain't getting none of mine!

    Tuck

  • gtucker7848 gtucker7848 May 8, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    Because the goal of the institutional holders is to own as many of the shares as possible before approval.

    Institutional ownership of shares, as a overall percentage, has been on the increase for some time now. Indeed, they are buying up more of the retail investors shares right now. Pay attention, you will not see one downgrade from a serious analyst. Not one.

    Ron knows who he has to take care of, and it is not the retail guy who owns a basically non existent percent of the float. Ron has created yet another buying opportunity for those long term institutional holders who have provided the capital for what is about to take place.

    It's really as simple as that. The sad thing is that all you have to do is tune out the noise and hold your shares. Follow the big boys, they tend to "guess" right on these things.

    Tuck

  • Reply to

    I remember about this time last year...

    by gtucker7848 May 7, 2014 7:46 PM
    gtucker7848 gtucker7848 May 7, 2014 8:00 PM Flag

    I remember a couple of years back when NFLX lost it's momentum. It dropped from well over $300 to about $50 in a straight line. We were told it was going to ZERO!!! (I believe that is exactly how it read)

    Where does NFLX trade today, Mr. momentum genius?

    What about GMCR?

    Tuck

  • Reply to

    I remember about this time last year...

    by gtucker7848 May 7, 2014 7:46 PM
    gtucker7848 gtucker7848 May 7, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    Truly, I could not care less about market sentiment, momentum stock BS, lock up expiration, or any other day to day trivialities.

    What I care about are earnings reports, and whether or not a stock can grow into its forward valuation.

    I said that FB could, and it has.

    I said that GMCR could, and it has.

    I am saying right here, right now, that TWTR will!

    Tuck

  • when FB was trading at around $23.

    According to the Yahoo MB, it wasn't worth more than $5. The consensus was that it should be sold short, as it had no reason for existing, and certainly no chance of ever making any money.

    Today, after a moderate correction, FB sells for $57. At that price, it is massively undervalued. Using modest revenue and earnings projections, and applying a fair multiple given it's explosive growth rates, it is hard to see how FB will not trade well above $100 in the next couple of years.

    If you're wondering why I'm posting this on the TWTR board, it's because I think TWTR is right about where FB was at this time last year. From a fundamental and technical perspective, TWTR is a screaming buy at current prices.

    Tuck

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