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CommonWealth Reit Message Board

gtw999 101 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 29, 2014 8:46 PM Member since: Jan 11, 1999
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  • gtw999 gtw999 Oct 29, 2014 8:46 PM Flag

    I wonder if DF has his historical facts right. But let us assume he has, and change the perspective of those raw numbers.

    He reports that $1.8B has been invested in RAS shares
    That dividends have been (2.23 x $310m) & (.39 x $1.1B) & (.21 x 405m), or
    $691m & $429m & $85m = $1.205B in dividends
    current market cap is $614M
    So if one had purchased every share ever issued by RAS, collected dividends, and then now sold at market price,
    ONE WOULD BE ONLY EVEN AFTER MANY YEARS OF INVESTING AND MANY STOMACH CHURNING TIMES

    If one benchmarked that against RWR, or any mainstream REIT, with similar dates and amounts of purchasing, in most cases one would have doubled or tripled one's money.

    The two flaws with DF's analysis:

    he thinks if two investors buy $100 of RAS shares, and are ahead by $20 each, and another investor buys $100 of shares and is behind by $40, that RAS is a good investment because 2 out of 3 shareholders are ahead.
    He does not bother to benchmark, an extremely sloppy approach when looking at long term results for any stock.

  • gtw999 gtw999 Oct 28, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    199/2 % is fractions of a percent after al.

  • Reply to

    2nd Quarter earnings

    by rfritz10 Jul 28, 2014 9:05 AM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 27, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    In the SEC filing it is reported that: "The Merger Agreement also includes certain termination rights for both us and CCIT and provides that in connection with the termination of the Merger Agreement, under certain specified circumstances, CCIT would be required to pay to us a termination payment of $75,000,000. The Merger Agreement also provides, subject to certain conditions, that if CCIT terminates the Merger Agreement due to our failure to obtain shareholder approval for the issuance of the SIR Common Shares in the Merger, or if we terminate the Merger Agreement due to CCIT's failure to obtain stockholder approval for the Merger, then the party who fails to obtain such approval would be required to pay the other party's transaction expenses in an amount up to $20,000,000."

    It is unclear from this how CCIT could end up having to pay SIR $75M. I am curious about this, although I doubt it would come into play.

    There is a customary provision that failure to complete the transaction due to shareholder disapproval causes a termination fee to the other party up to $20M. I dislike these clauses because they give rein to bad management to partially lock shareholders into a deal that shareholders might prefer to vote against. Still $20M on a deal supposedly worth $3.0B is only .67%. So Cole Shareholders could reasonably decide the deal is bad, much worse that just paying the termination fee. Not so much because the $3.0B is bad, but because they would not really get that much value since SIR shares are way down, and because they would come out of it owning shares in an RMR run REIT.

  • Reply to

    2nd Quarter earnings

    by rfritz10 Jul 28, 2014 9:05 AM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 27, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    Looks like the idiot analyst got it right. If not for the $5.365M of acquisition costs incurred, it would have been ~ 48 cents in quarterly income, still no great performance.

    In reality not all the expense of acquisition is in that $5,365M I suspect. General and administrative expense seems higher than it should be as well.

    At least all that money is not going down the drain, but rather into a "once in a lifetime" opportunity that SIR management has managed to grab a hold of.

  • Reply to

    incompetent, inept, and probably delusional

    by razzamaras Oct 23, 2014 12:26 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 26, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Again you demonstrate your math illiteracy. But, putting that aside, you are not benchmarking RAS results. By most measures RAS has been an underperformer for most set periods of time.

  • Reply to

    3Q results are out next week

    by davisfoulger Oct 22, 2014 4:31 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 26, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Yes, I am familiar of that sort of accounting legerdemain. I do not think it influences savvy investors. But if RAS does proceed in that manner, you can count on at least one fool repeating the continuing operations numbers 50 times or more as proof of how undervalued RAS is, thus contributing to a quality conversation on this board.

  • Reply to

    3Q results are out next week

    by davisfoulger Oct 22, 2014 4:31 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 24, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    Seems to me that the Tabernas are not in the history books yet.

    No 10Q filing on the event yet to discuss the reason for the settlement.
    No earnings report containing the expense yet.
    No transfer of management duties of the Tabernas to another entity yet.
    No disposition of Taberna assets owned by RAS yet.

    I suspect the Tabernas will rock the boat a bit more before they are seen receding in the rear view mirror.

  • Reply to

    "I'm not blitzing the board"

    by khyrtfdsc Oct 23, 2014 4:27 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 24, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    What about you Davis? You do not care about posters being able to discuss RAS on this board without being swamped by the daily tsunami of your posts here. Again, I suggest as an experiment, your limiting yourself to one post a day for a month. It is my theory that this board would become a much more useful resource to investors that way. However, sadly, I have never seen this theory given a fair test.

  • The Weatherman in Needles, nephew to the man in charge, always predicted there would be no rain, and that it would be a good day for a picnic, always advising his viewers to "have a picnic". Always. Every day.

    Most people ignored the fool, but sadly some actually relied on his advice and got cold and wet, and some got pneumonia and died.

    When confronted, the weatherman had various explanations:

    1. That a red Marpesia Daggerwings butterfly opened its wings and fluttered them 10 minutes before anticipated in Sete Lagoas, Brazil, and therefore through the butterfly effect the whole prediction had been undermined, but that if the butterfly had not done so, the prediction would have been true.

    2. That he had not made such a prediction of sunshine on one day in question. When confronted with a time-stamped video, he claimed the video had been altered.

    3. That there had been a 20 minute window where the sun was shining, and a quick picnic had been possible. He reported that he himself had had a picnic then. He then added that in fact he himself had managed to picnic with pleasure on every single day of the year.

    4. That he was taken out of context, when it should have been understood in context that he was talking about Los Angeles, because Los Angeles was a city showing on his map when he talked about the good weather ahead.

    5. That he could not be criticized when there was an eruption of Mount Bulusan in the Phillipines an hour after his "have a picnic" which quickly changed the weather.

    The fellow never apologized to the families of those who died after catching pneumonia, and to this day has never acknowledged that anyone may have suffered a detriment through acting upon his "have a picnic" recommendation.

  • Reply to

    Back up the truck

    by jrstewart73 Oct 15, 2014 10:53 AM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 18, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    He has a lot more than "verbose hyperbole and word parsing." He has insults too where he takes the position that he is just too smart for his critics to understand, and his critics are dumb.

    Probably when he was getting teased and pushed around in 4th grade and came home crying, his mother comforted him by telling him (quite falsely) that the other boys and girls resented him for his intelligence. This source of comfort has always been there to insulate him from the slings and arrows of life, and been developed so much so that he has become totally impervious to criticism of his writings, no matter how ridiculous his writings.

  • Reply to

    Merger

    by pvher Oct 10, 2014 9:19 AM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 17, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    fritz:

    I suspect that there is a fair amount of extra expense being incurred now for attorneys and accountants and others working on the deal. Some of that expense may be capitalized as purchase expense, but not all. So earnings in the third Q probably have been effected.

    As to RMR, clearly now they have stained themselves so much, especially with the GOV/SIR deal and the Cole deal, that no one believes in their integrity anymore, so there is a large RMR discount. But even #$%$ management has an equilibrium point, where you discount to where the investment makes sense. But with the recent GOV/SIR deal and the Cole deal the RMR discount grew larger. Prices now on the RMR managed REITs are probably good now that HPT, GOV and SIR have re-priced lower, although there remains the possibility that the Portney boys will outdo themselves and do something even more outrageous to increase the RMR discount.

    I would be curious how the Corvex guys did with their intervention in CWH stock. I suspect they did not do that well considering all the flack and delay that RMR threw out at them. But if it was mildly profitable, and considering that they now are familiar with the procedure to dislodge RMR from a REIT, they might be looking at GOV now. Someone takes a 10% stake in that REIT and then causes RMR to be evicted would see quite a nice profit in GOV.

    There is still the possibility that COLE shareholders will say no to the merger.

  • Reply to

    Oh Davis,

    by needoptions Oct 16, 2014 1:12 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 17, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    Of course needoptions was being ironic in asking for DF's help. As to how well he understands DF, I would say needoptions has a profound understanding of the pathology of DF's postings. Anyone who spends 60 minutes searching through DF's historic posts over the years will marvel how DF is ALWAYS saying RAS is well-run, is priced under intrinsic value, and is about to take off in price.

  • Reply to

    I'm calling another bottom and new cycle.

    by davisfolger Oct 12, 2014 10:44 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 16, 2014 5:47 PM Flag

    I find I do quite well when I decide on Friday whether or not to make a buy or sell in the prior month or prior Monday. I do not understand those who allow themselves to be constrained by linear time. Time does go both ways. Take advantage of it. And if you cannot take advantage of it, for heaven's sake, stay away from a dog stock like RAS.

  • Reply to

    I'm calling another bottom and new cycle.

    by davisfolger Oct 12, 2014 10:44 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 13, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    Davis, will you ever stop pumping this stock? Do not answer; it is a rhetorical question.

  • Reply to

    Merger

    by pvher Oct 10, 2014 9:19 AM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 10, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    No, it will not go up. SIR has been re-priced, all things considered. Fact that Cole shareholders will get some 7% less or so than the deal ostensibly valued their shares does not mean that SIR shareholders are coming out ahead. Stock market is stating that SIR overpaid for the COLE assets. The Wells Fargo analyst commented that the deal was priced to perfection, meaning it only made sense if one made optimistic assumptions on every level (presumably such as interest rate obtainable on financing the deal, pricing of real property assets acquired, stability of tenants, etc.)

    Of course over time SIR could prove that this really was a once in a lifetime deal that will be beneficial long term. But I remain of the opinion that the primary motivation here was for RMR to increase assets under management.

  • Reply to

    How low will it go?

    by lookingforabuy Sep 23, 2014 12:25 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 Oct 10, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    HPT has been underperforming REITs in general. In the last 3 months RWR (REIT ETF) is down about 2%, while HPT down 12%.

    At least, so far, RMR has not done anything to torpedo the stock price like they have with SIR and GOV, but it does seem that there is some RMR pricing adjustment going on with this stick.

  • gtw999 gtw999 Oct 1, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    This is an important point. Old DF has never acknowledged that he put out puffery that was likely absorbed by more than a few neophytes to their significant financial detriment. Serious business that, but DF won't acknowledge it.

  • There is a quintuple crown winner for the month of September 2014.

    Most posts: DF, with 304.
    Most posts saying or suggesting RAS is undervalued: DF, with 78.
    Most spin posts: DF, with 55.
    Most posts attributing the movement of RAS stock to short sellers: DF with 32.
    Funniest post: DF, who in a post on September 12, 2014, responding to a post of Folger's, without any suggestion of conscious self-parody, said: "You want to be "king of the board" or "emporor" of whatever, go for it. I'd rather just have a useful discussion."

    Honorable mention for the humor category to Folger, but again he finishes second to the master.
    There was no winner for September in the category of most posts calling other posters big fat lying liars who tell malicious fabricated falsehoods, because the committee requires at least 10 entries to win a category.

  • Seems like the RMR boys have perfectly timed their purchase of COLE assets to buy right at the market peak. Sort of like buying a house for $500,000 in July 2006. Would not be so bad except SIR tried to triple its size in this purchase.

    The Cole shareholders might have misgivings, since they now will be behind in the deal. But in reality they ought to keep to the deal.

    SIR shareholders other than RMR controlled votes will almost certainly be against the deal. But probably not enough to block the deal.

    At RMR they are probably still happy with the deal that increases assets under management so much, although they might be a little worried about how the market is reacting to their mismanagement.

  • gtw999 gtw999 Sep 30, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    What motivates one to post the same truths over and over again about your failed predictions is two-fold:

    sympathy for newbies, some of whom no doubt have been misled to their financial detriment by your sanguine projections, since you may seem to a newbie to be a knowledgeable fellow. If posting the same truths over and over again saves a few newbies from being misled about your level of expertise, so much the better.

    Secondly, why was Don Quixote so soundly thrashed so often? Why do bad comedians get heckled at comedy clubs? Think about it, and you will figure it out.

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