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CommonWealth Reit Message Board

gtw999 98 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 11 minutes ago Member since: Jan 11, 1999
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  • Reply to

    What is an appropriate RMR discount?

    by npcmoe Mar 3, 2015 1:21 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 2 hours 11 minutes ago Flag

    I have a little LXP, but much more LXP-C by value. LXP-X can be called, but only if LXP more than doubles in price, and then on terms favorable to the preferred shareholder. So it is long term, fairly safe debt, yielding 6.5%.

    As to reasons to be hesitent about LXP, they have single tenant properties and if the tenant left, they would potentially have some trouble re-letting. The one that would concern me most is the six K-marts they have.

    Back to SIR, the price is now anchored around $23.50. This is the largely result of SIR having made the recent large purchase at the market peak. It was so obviously the peak, but RMR wanted more assets under management and to fend off any shareholder concentration that might hurt RMR, and so it went. Also now it seems that there is a widespread distaste for anything connected to RMR. They have destroyed their credibility.

    Between SIR and LXP, it seems to me that SIR is the better buy now: better yield, better base of properties. On the other hand, LXP is much less likely to announce another management action that is plain rotten for the shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Lower earnings guidance

    by fore_91836 19 hours ago

    "The principal factors contributing to this guidance revision are based on recent results and near term expectations on lower volumes and gross margins for the company’s North American businesses, and the continuing impact of unfavorable foreign exchange rates."

    Well higher dollar may cause $.03 of the adjustment. As for the rest, not much of an explanation. Lower volumes and lower margins. Of course. But what is really going on?

  • Reply to

    Davis Foulger Obituary

    by ki1gore_trout May 28, 2015 1:35 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 May 28, 2015 4:38 PM Flag

    How did the lad shuffle off the mortal coil?

    Caught in an alley by some unhappy investor?
    Stingray or electric eel while looking for Atlantis?
    Caught in the open by a hippo while on tour in Africa?
    Surely the great man did not have a prosaic passing?

  • Reply to

    ONE OF THESE DAYS

    by muckahoy88 May 27, 2015 1:00 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 May 27, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    Isn't management the thumbs down vote you got?

  • gtw999 gtw999 May 27, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    Let me caveat that and say my given time is not a prediction, unless I am right, when it was a perfect prediction. But i wish to go on record and say it is not a prediction.

    The reason I bring this up, is that there was a time some years ago when I myself concluded that I had been wrong about RAS rising in price to 220 That miscalculation was rare, and in fact I had been thinking it would never happen again in my lifetime. Well it disrupted my pre-frontal cortex, and I was on breakfast, lunch, and dinner regimen of thorazine and haloperidol for 3 months, and I still have tremors in my hands as a result. Given the risk, I wish to be sure my entry is simply listed as "an entry in a raffle" rather than a prediction.

    Thank you.

  • gtw999 gtw999 May 27, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    Piny sttocks is a crummy tout site that seems to be paying Yawho to be allowed to keep pumping their site on these boards. Sad that Yawho allows it.

  • gtw999 gtw999 May 22, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    Yep, a fair amount of depreciation is real. When you get to older buildings, you need major renovations, major repairs, every so often. What you see sometimes is that those major renovations are capitalized, and depreciated too, so that much of the expense of maintenance never shows up in AFFO. Maybe it shows up in CAD.

    Of course a well-maintained building should last more than the 25 years or so that IRS allows.

    In the past the real depreciation might be offset by rising land values. But when you get to a property peak, that offset is no longer there, and analysis of a property REIT should include real depreciation.

  • gtw999 gtw999 May 22, 2015 1:00 AM Flag

    Ah, Cinque Terre, an outback outpost. RAS is more llikely to see that territory before it sees the ochos. If for no other reason than that current pps is much closer to that location, not to mention management surprises. Surely they still have something left in their bag, like the cat in the hat has in his.

  • gtw999 gtw999 May 21, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Ah, just as 007 has a license to kill, DF has a license to be snarky. Does not mean that everyone has that license. Just a few.

  • gtw999 gtw999 May 21, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    My favorite metric is taxable income. If the IRS does not think you made income, then you probably did not make income.

    REIT's do not report taxable income, but you can usually determine it by the portion of dividends that is taxable. However, RAS has such a large built up carry over loss apparently that it would be possible that there is current taxable income, but not taxable distributions for the present.

    RAS management emphasizes FFO, AFFO, or CAD metrics depending on what makes things look best for the enterprise. Any investor in RAS best learn how to read between the lines of accounting reports for himself or herself, and certainly not to rely upon ever-sanguine, ever-pumping DF to digest it for the investor.

  • gtw999 gtw999 May 21, 2015 3:03 PM Flag

    I'm with Trout that there is a real chance it will never get to $8 again. Perhaps 10% or so.

    Assuming it does get to $8 again, February 12, 2018, is my entry. Assuming no dividend cut before then, that would be about a 20% per annum return until then, which is a heck of a good investment. I am probably being too optimistic, really. Those who like to daydream should of course nod to the daydream weavers on this board who will predict an effective 40% plus return in holding this stock for the next 6 months or so.

  • Reply to

    Verification from Scott.

    by davisfolger May 20, 2015 10:22 AM
    gtw999 gtw999 May 20, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    Here's what I do to juice my spreadsheet green. Add the dividends to the portfolio, then adjust the old RAS value up by the dividends received. This is what Scott was talking about. But then, I take the dividends, and turn them into Barbadian dollars, and right there you double your dollars. Add the dividends to the adjusted RAS value, and I am up over 25% in dollars.

  • According to the announcement RAS hopes to get high teens return on its investment in the lowest tranche 19% portions of the $220m package "assuming all of the underlying loans are repaid at their stated maturity and not prepaid, in default or sold." Same as the projected Taberna returns, I suspect. High teens return if everything works out, and close to nothing if things turn bad in a big way. Assuming a typical ebb and flow of interest rates and property values and continuing need for the properties by the owners, that return will drop to a lower rate, maybe 12%.

    They had to dilute or borrow to raise cash, with significant costs associated with each equity raise. Either case, dividends or interest, they are paying 8% at least for capital. This chasing after loans has not been productive. They could have purchased real property, leveraged it with non-recourse mortgages, and got over 10%.

    - - - - - - - -

    RAS "announced today the pricing of a non-recourse, floating-rate CMBS transaction collateralized by floating rate commercial real estate first lien mortgage loans, all of which were originated by subsidiaries of RAIT. The transaction involves the issuance and sale by a RAIT subsidiary of investment grade notes totaling approximately $181.2 million with a weighted average cost of LIBOR plus 1.84%, which provides an advance rate to the RAIT subsidiary of approximately 81.2%. RAIT affiliates will retain all of the below investment grade and un-rated subordinated interests totaling approximately $41.8 million. . . . RAIT expects to earn a high teens return on its retained interest in the affiliated issuing entity, inclusive of fees less transaction expenses, assuming all of the underlying loans are repaid at their stated maturity and not prepaid, in default or sold.

    - - - - - - -

    I will not be responding to DF or his minions, not because I accept their comments, but because they are ignored because their comments are too tedious to bother with.

  • Reply to

    Management needs

    by ethison May 14, 2015 7:57 AM
    gtw999 gtw999 May 17, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Yes, no doubt he keeps explaining to the board that his lending operation is finally about to gain traction and put RAS shareholders ahead of where they would have been without his large expansion of the lending operation (as he must have explained for the past 10 quarters), and the board is accepting it.

    The board is not exercising independent judgment.

  • Reply to

    Times have changed. Be a new citizen or be gone.

    by davisfolger May 15, 2015 10:08 AM
    gtw999 gtw999 May 17, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    muck:

    look at a post of the offending person. Move cursor over the blue print of the name of the poster. Then to the right of the name after the date and time is a blue

    "x flag"

    click on that, and it will give you two options. One to report the post (for spam) and the other is to ignore user.

    do that with df and his two biggest wannabees/alter egos, and the board is tolerable. Someone mentioned ignoring ethison. That is not wise. Ethison is a pretty good digger and has some good industry commentary. He may sometimes be overly sanguine on RAS's prospects, perhaps influenced by all the "going to 11", "going to 15", and "going to the moon!" pumping he absorbs on the board.

  • Reply to

    Question about IRT acquiring TSRE

    by birdluck1 May 11, 2015 10:55 AM
    gtw999 gtw999 May 12, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    I do not get how the deal is good for IRT either. At least pricing on the stocks post-announcement indicates a more or less fair deal.

    They claim there will be economies in the merged entity and IRT will have increased FFO. We shall see.

  • Reply to

    Question for Ethison

    by davisfoulger May 11, 2015 1:05 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 May 11, 2015 9:13 PM Flag

    I think it would be preferable to be 10 year secured non-recourse debt.

  • gtw999 gtw999 May 9, 2015 8:31 PM Flag

    I'd agree that these crooks deserve jail time. But that will not happen, or come close to happening.

    As for a class action suit, that too is extremely remote.

    Sad fact is that our current legal system is much too accomodative to the management class. Basic fact is that they can say: "We think this is in the best interest of shareholders," and like Putin saying "Russia has nothing to do with what is happening in Ukraine," or a professional wrestler like Hulk Hogan saying, "the matches are not fixed," or Hillary Clinton saying "I don't know how the Whitewater billing records showed up on my coffee table," and management gets away with it despite the overwhelming reason to believe otherwise.

    About the best that can be done is one large shareholder getting motivated to plan a change. Calpers forced HPT to change to yearly director votes, meaning it would be easier for someone to arrange an ouster of management. Corvex pushed a special vote that resulted in an 80% vote to evict RMR from CWH.

    After an ouster, the new management could sue the old. But RMR has put in all sorts of self-serving measures to protect itself. Even after RMR was kicked out of CWH, RMR got a settlement package, rather than having to disgorge unearned fees or make compensation for their harm. Further, the move to rid CWH of RMR was not so profitable, since RMR practiced scorched earth defense there.

    Still, over time all institutional investors will become like Calpers I think and demand procedures and votes to allow for the removal of RMR. But it will take awhile. As for an intervention, GOV is RMR's weak link. I am surprised no one has taken a position in GOV to announce a RMR removal plan.

  • Reply to

    Every little bit

    by ethison May 8, 2015 3:59 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 May 9, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    That is a key issue. I wonder is if the crew at IRT is as adept as the crew at APTS or BRG. I suspect not. Hopefully they can at least do a credible job.

    Apartments, like bonds, may have already had most of their bull run. Cap rates of 6% do not allow for a whole lot of profit-making. BRG just announced a purchase of a luxury apartment. They said: "BRG's underwriting projects a trended return on cost for the project of approximately 7.0% at stabilization, based on expected development cost and projected rental income. This compares very favorably to estimated market cap rates of 4.50% to 5.25% for comparable product." That sounds pretty good if they can pull it off. But market caps of 5% for comparable products is so low.

  • Reply to

    THIS IS IT

    by muckahoy88 May 7, 2015 1:38 PM
    gtw999 gtw999 May 7, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    This board is tedious due to the tendentiousness of knw and his two most active acolytes, and I can see why a logical experienced investor such as Muck would give up on the board. If not for the humor of folger and the occasional serious investor posts by people like Muck and sometimes Ethison, I might do the same myself.

    My approach is to put ykw and the two of his wannabees that post almost as much as him on ignore, then put the screen view on "messages" rather than "topic", and the board does not look so bad because most of the tedious posts (about half of all posts) are blocked.

    What I do every now and then is unignore ykn, look through a few posts for one of his whoppers (never takes more than looking at 2-3 posts), put forth a counter to the whopper, and then go back to the ignore view.

    Of course it would be best if ykw would ignore those who ask to be ignored, who do not want his input, but he must go and pea on every topic and so has driven Muck away. Anyway it would be fine with me if ykw and his two heavy posting acolytes (or alter egos) would put me on ignore. Just fine.