That Ebidta is way way off. Unfortunately this company hasn't executed. Last 5 qtrs have been awful. Not just bad but horrific. Zero traction on existing drugs and Zohydro sales looking like a bust.
And they will get it, most likely in the form of a partnership/collaboration. Cash burn was better than expected. I was expecting something closer to $23-$25mill.
It might not seem like 2016 has been great given where the stock is trading but on a relative basis, ARWR has really outperformed. The IBB has been getting destroyed in 2016, down over 23%. To me, it looks as if ARWR has turned the corner. Use any time frame in 2016 and ARWR has held up well.
Debt relief isn't going to happen. Their debt is already in the form of a horrific convertible. With their sales going backwards, if they don't do some type of asset sale, they will have to file for bankruptcy.
It all comes down to Zohydro. I personally think its a very viable asset in more capable hands.
It's definitely for sale, either whole or piece meal. They can't survive otherwise. No chance, not with their debt load. One of the worst years i have ever seen by any company on a relative basis. Every qtr was below expectations and that's with reduced guidance every qtr. Just an abysmal performance. My grade for management on a scale of 1 to 10 is a negative infinity.
Not nearly as many as usual. This stock almost always sells off after the release of good news. Every pop usually gets shorted because shorts know they have time on their side. Meaning, even if this drug eventual gets approved, commercial use is still years away. But as more and more encouraging news gets released, it becomes a much harder short play. This pop not only held but has drifted higher over the course of the day. Very encouraging if you are long.
They have to at the very least sell one of their product lines. They won't survive with the debt they have and it's debt in the form of a horrendous convertible. Management bet big and lost. They have arguably had a worse year than anybody this side of SFXE.