From what I understand, the only restriction on a healthy bank is that their payout rate can't exceed net revenue unless they get FDIC permission, which is usually granted on a limited basis if the bank is adequately capitalized. NYCB's payout rate is high, but doesn't exceed net revenue. I don't see them making an acquisition that would significantly reduce revenue or have a major impact on capitalization. But since short interest is up, we can expect to see more rumors about a pending dividend cut.
Not increasing the debt cap instantly puts a 'balanced budget' into effect. A fair number of people in the House want to see that happen, impact be damned. It all rests on Boehner's shoulders. Is he willing to damage his speaker's postion by letting the moderate Republicans and Democrats vote? Depends on wheter he feels Obama will get a big share of the blame. Probably 50-50 at this point. Whatever happens will be last minute. Like last time, I've reduced my holdings until the smoke clears.