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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

guy11288 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 10:25 AM Member since: Aug 5, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Do You want the good news or the bad news first

    by artbyxxx Mar 25, 2015 3:50 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 26, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    Thanks. You are definitely correct. The last 6 years have been a crazy ride especially given Fed actions. But after 6 yrs of the market working 1 way, I'm no longer holding my breath waiting for it to behave like it did in the 90's / early 2000's.

    You're right...I do need to diversify. I'm looking for an exit opportunity, somewhere around 104 this year. I know that sounds crazy, but that's my calculation. I told my wife that FB would go to 86, then I'd sell my 4k trading shares (keeping my 10k @ 29) and buy back in at 82.25. Guess what this IDIOT did NOT do. Not only that, I sold too early, then bought back in at 84. It seems no matter how accurate my calculations are, greed and fear are a son of a b***h. BOL to you too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Do You want the good news or the bad news first

    by artbyxxx Mar 25, 2015 3:50 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 25, 2015 9:31 PM Flag

    artbyxxx, you mentioned "I know that it has been an easy ride being long FB if you got in early." That statement is so far from correct its not even funny.

    First let me say that I welcome your contrarian messages on this board because I currently own 14k shares of FB and I need to evaluate every opinion to make sure I'm not missing anything, especially given the #$%$ load of money I have in this stock.

    Yes, 10k of my 14k was around $29, but I lost on the IPO when it went from 45 to 17. And like many others, I had to hold when it went from 29 to 22, 54 to 43, 72 to 55, 79 to 70, 81 to 72, 82 to 73, and also watch it trade sideways for 5 months while lots of other stocks were going up. All the while being spammed with messages that the sky is falling, teens are leaving, $1B for Instagram was the "kid in his hoodie" throwing money away, etc .... That was tremendously hard. If you have good points to offer, I'll listen, otherwise its just noise.

    FB just experienced a technical breakout above 82.17 and that has become strong support. I'm not going to argue valuation with anyone because that is just not how the market works. FB has so many legs to stand on that I'm surprised you are so negative on the stock. They may miss a quarter sometime in the future, but by the end of 2015, FB will be a $100 stock. I urge you to watch the videos from the Dev conference today to see what they are doing to be able to keep earnings up. Very very promising.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    F8 Developer Conference

    by guy11288 Mar 25, 2015 1:49 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 25, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    FB's high of 86.07 is well withing the normal highs (4%-8%) right after a break out (3-month cup and handle with an 82.17 resistance). 60% of the time (based on what I've read about breakouts), the stock will drop and bounce off its former resistance. I fully expect FB to be back over 85 in short order.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 guy11288 Mar 25, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    sooooooo your time frame is ONE DAY? #smdh

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Watching the conference online now. As a tech guy I can tell you that the new Facebook Messenger Platform is going to be a game changer for businesses and Facebook. You'll be able to see your transactions, track your packages in real-time, do returns/refunds, and communicate directly with businesses. FB just made their 2 million small businesses happier.

    Also FB is adding spherical videos into the Newsfeed in the coming months. That is the next phase between videos and virtual reality.

    If you are investing in FB, go watch.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Honesty is the best policy

    by artbyxxx Mar 23, 2015 9:29 AM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 23, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    In keeping with your "honesty is the best policy" please let us know how do you know the CFO left "in a hurry".

    And don't they always report BOTH GAAP and non-GAAP numbers? What exactly are you suggesting they report, and don't confuse what they report with the headlines from countless articles written about FB, not by them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FB PHONE APP WILL REVOLUTIONIZE COMMUNICATION

    by steve689 Mar 23, 2015 9:41 AM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 23, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Explain how!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Warning Candlestick charting

    by artbyxxx Mar 20, 2015 12:48 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 20, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    Looks like a CLEAN cup and handle breakout. These have on avg an 5-10% run past the base, sometimes followed by a dip back to the base, followed by a 10%-20%, or more. In FB's case, this would translate to a run to 86-90, followed by a drop back to 82, followed by a run up to 90-100 at least. Plotting Pivot Points on a candlestick chart has been a decent indicator of movement in FB over the last 6 months and the current top resistance for March is at 85.85. We have FB's developer conference next week and I expect that to be a positive catalyst for the stock. Also earnings will be announced in about a month so I also expect the usual 2-week out drop and the 1-week out pre-earnings run-up at the end of April. Long story short .... I expect $90 sometime in April.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How many morons here can we count on

    by slider5x5 Mar 19, 2015 12:53 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 19, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    Why would they be morons? Do you think Amazon is inherently more secure than Facebook would be? You know even Target and Home Depot were hacked right? They have 200B combined market cap too. What's your point?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 guy11288 Mar 19, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    No one said it goes up BECAUSE OF the chart. The chart simply hints to us what the masses think of FB. This idiot is long and strong since $29 ...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BREAKOUT CONFIRMED HERE

    by stevegrossostinks Mar 19, 2015 9:39 AM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 19, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    Good comments, although I do think we till have some good sized moves ahead of us. By that I mean $2-$3 days. I know that is not the same as when we were in the $20/$30, but for me money is money, so the percentage isn't too relevant for me. IMHO.

    The bottom line is that, as you stated, volume is the only thing that will get us past this rut. Today is a good sign of that.... almost 15M shares in just 1 hour and we set a new all time high.

    Thanks for your contribution to this board.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    We've seen it over and over

    by artbyxxx Mar 19, 2015 9:59 AM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 19, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    Didn't someone on here say options were $85 this Fri? I could be mis-remembering.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BREAKOUT CONFIRMED HERE

    by stevegrossostinks Mar 19, 2015 9:39 AM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 19, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    Agree on the necessity of holding above 82.17, but I disagree that a failed breakout is a triple top sell signal. To me that would mean its an Ascending Triangle and we head back to 76 or so and then make another run to 82. Do you see a possible Ascending Triangle? I could be wrong.

    If we break out of this cup and handle, I expect a run to 85, then a drop back to the new support line of 82, followed by a run to about 90 over a month long period. Give or take.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I've been staring at the chart for a while now. Can't decide between 2 formations:

    A Bullish Cup and Handle: (high of 82-ish in late-Dec and early-Mar, even on both sides, cup depth is about 1/3 the height of the prior trend, spread over a few months). Here we'd just need a big up day on strong volume to close above 82.17 to confirm the breakout after 5 months of sideways trading.

    OR

    A Bullish Ascending Triangle: flat top line of around 82 and ascending low's (70.32 to 73.45). Here best case we break out above 82 on strong volume. Worse case we fall back to 76 one more time before making another run back up to 82.

    I know some of you have called this a triple top but the last few days have seem to make that unlikely I think.
    Thoughts anyone?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BreakOut CONFIRMATION TOWARD $83

    by stevegrossostinks Mar 17, 2015 10:54 AM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 17, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    Well I did .... got some more at 78.91 and 78.63. It sucks to watch it drop every now and then but such is investing. Been holding and adding to my position for the last 2 yrs ever since $29. Looking for a 20% + year from FB stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Has FB given a massive sell signal: Ashburn Daily

    by artbyxxx Mar 17, 2015 8:52 AM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 17, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    Well FB had a bullish homing pigeon on Mar 11 ... so it looks like you should now go all in. ;)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 guy11288 Mar 5, 2015 11:05 PM Flag

    Hard to tell whats going to happen tomorrow.

    On the positive:
    Today was the first day FB traded the entire day above 81!
    MACD is trending up for the last 3 days.
    We had a single-day $2+ drop just 5 days ago to shake out some weak hands.

    On the negative:
    This is looking a lot like Dec 1. (big up-day, then doji star like today, then $2 drop on 3rd day)
    Tomorrow is Fri .... Fri usu sucks
    We've only been avg-ing around 30M shares per day, no big volume day yet in over 2 weeks.

    If we're green we see a new all time high tomorrow.
    If we're red we'll see an open below 81 and a low and close of around 79.5.

    Just my thoughts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TRUE BREAKOUT

    by cashbar1 Mar 4, 2015 3:04 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 5, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    haha. never been called a "strong conservative" before! first time for everything!
    FB break 82 already!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TRUE BREAKOUT

    by cashbar1 Mar 4, 2015 3:04 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 5, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    Got lucky going ALL IN at just under $29. Its been a crazy year to say the least. Hopefully I don't come off as a pumper .... just sharing my thoughts to help anyone.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TRUE BREAKOUT

    by cashbar1 Mar 4, 2015 3:04 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Mar 4, 2015 3:17 PM Flag

    Its been a while since I posted! Seems like we got a whole new crowd again.

    Top closing prices for FB:

    81.45 - Dec 22
    80.78 - Dec 26
    80.77 - Dec 24

    Currently trading at 81.03. Price is doing well, but volume is average, so its still a wait and see in my book. If we do have a break out I call for a $105 top in the next 12 months.

    Cant believe I've been holding this stock for almost 2 years!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

FB
83.36+0.06(+0.07%)1:45 PMEDT