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Nuance Communications (NUAN) Message Board

guy11288 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 18, 2014 3:29 PM Member since: Aug 5, 2003
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  • guy11288 guy11288 Jul 18, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    So FB, a $175 BILLION company can't hire security experts from Amazon, Paypal or other financial institutions? With money and expertise ANY website can offer the same level of security as those websites that you trust with your credit card info. Don't be ignorant.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 guy11288 Jul 18, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    FB is putting together the pieces of a gigantic puzzle. Recent changes by FB:

    1. Apply for eCommerce license from Bank of Ireland

    2. Released App Links which allows the FB mobile app to link to a specific page in an app. So if you click an Ad, you can for example, be taken directly to the Amazon mobile app for the product you clicked on and can finalize your purchase.

    3. Showing you ads based on the websites you visit.
    So if you're in the market for a pair of running shoes for example, and you search outside of FB, when you go back to FB you'll see those shoes in your Ads.

    4. Now they add a Buy button and will allow you to store your credit card info with them just like Amazon.

    This is shaping up nicely!

    Just as a side note, my wife buys and sells 2-3 items a month. Mainly toys for the kids. She has completely stopped using craigslist and now uses FB exclusively. She posted our deck furniture for sale and in LITERALLY 45 secs she got 3 users asking to buy it (from one of the local groups). I tried this again with our old dishwasher and within minutes there were several takers. MZ's focus on scale has truly paid off and so will WhatsApp with its half a billion users.

    Food for thought.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 guy11288 Jul 17, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    Sorry but what you said MADE NO SENSE AT ALL. It will take a newborn baby 16 years to turn 16, yes we know that. But it will take a 15yr old just a few months to turn 16. What you need to know is how many people are turning 13 each quarter and roughly divide that by 7 to guesstimate FB growth (minus the deaths of course) and assuming the growth rate is the same.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    You were warned!

    by humlebryg Jul 15, 2014 6:06 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Jul 15, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    So basically, don't blame politicians or policy if the market goes down, investors should blame themselves? BS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm trying to understand ...

    by louisbartomeosr Jun 30, 2014 8:50 AM
    guy11288 guy11288 Jun 30, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    Wrong. If you see lots of BMW ads stating they won some best car category (for example) but GOOG filters out ads from Audi,Lexus,Benz, etc because they make less on those ads, isn't that manipulation just as well? Wake up America. Ads go to the highest bidder and NO webpage is UNBIASED. And as far as I've read, this was just a FB test, not the way they normally run the news feeds.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sheryl Sandberg took your money AGAIN. Jail her.

    by gapmonger Jun 9, 2014 11:34 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Jun 10, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    yet, IF she leaves you'll prob be the first one saying that FB is going down do to lack of leadership, even though you just said her contributions are "minimal at best". #youcanthaveitbothways

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Watch that 52-week low price because........

    by redtr4 Jun 10, 2014 9:37 AM
    guy11288 guy11288 Jun 10, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    in my experience .... these "mind games" investors play with themselves have more impact on their decisions than sound DD. It is what it is ... sometimes we are on the wrong end of it ... sometimes not. So now I just try to stay ahead of the curve and ride this s. o. b. as best I can. I've prob doubled my typical annual returns that way too btw.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Anyone have any thoughts on the trading pattern. We still haven't made breakout in any direction and as far as I can tell we are about 2 days from the top and bottom trend lines converging. What happens next?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Watch The Trendline

    by m.moc63 May 12, 2014 3:51 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 May 12, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    I agree but I just plotted the trend line again just now on a daily chart (non-logorithmic) and Tue's trend line will be at 59.90. Today marks the 9th day that we've not been able to break the top trend line. Similarly, FB has bounced off the bottom trend line about 7 times. Trend lines converge on May 30th, so very soon, something is going to give. Based on what I'm seeing we need a close above 61 on strong volume to signal a turn-around.

    62 - 62.50 or so will be strong resistance again I believe since thats the 50-MA as well as the top Bollinger Band as well as the Parabolic Sar line. Strong support is at 56 (bottom trend line) and 53.57 (200-MA).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Trendline still holding.

    by factspls88 May 9, 2014 4:08 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 May 9, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    Agreed. The 200-MA is moving up. Right now its at 53.45. The trend line is about 56.13. I wouldn't put it past them to drop it to the 200-MA, temporarily breaking the trend line only to close right back up. The good news is that the more we consolidate here, the stronger the support is in the 55-58 range and the 200-MA will be in that range in 2-3 weeks. Hoping FB sees a little traction to about $60, before Memorial Day though.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FB Head And Shlder pattern

    by kjs2235 May 8, 2014 10:11 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 May 8, 2014 11:27 PM Flag

    Do you see (6-mo daily chart) a descending wedge?
    Top trend line is from 3/11 @ 72.50 to 4/24 @ 63.60.
    Bottom trend line is from 4/7 @ 55.90 to 4/29 @ 56.09

    Tomorrow, Fri 5/9/14, the high-low for the trend lines will be about 60.79 to 56.11. There is support at 55.85. This means tomorrow will be crucial. FB needs to close above 56 imho and start heading back to the top of the trend line. If we fail to hold 56, I see a straight run to the 200-MA which will be about 54 in 3 days.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The top trend line is the line drawn from 72.59 to 63.65. The high for the last 4 days have bucked up right against the trend line. Tomorrow the trend line should be at 61.21-ish. FB has also held the mid-Bollinger and mid-Keltner lines for 4 days. These mid-lines and the top trend lines are converging so I'm hoping this means a breakout in the coming 1-2 days. If it doesn't then I see FB heading to the bottom trend line, which is in the $56-$54 range.

    Did a quick trade by selling some at 61.20 yesterday and jumping back in at 59.83 today. Not much but I was trying to use the down pressure from TWTR to my advantage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 by guy11288 May 2, 2014 12:30 AM Flag

    All the discussion re TA on the board got me looking into it as well. Here are just a couple points to consider.

    Re MA. The 50-MA and the 200-MA are moving towards each other, but we have about 1 week left worth of days that are in the mid-20's that are contributing to the 200-MA. After that we start to only consider days since the first gap up in the mid-to-high-30's. This means that the 200-MA will start to slow down within 1 week. Gaining about $1, then $0.75, then $0.70 each 6 days going forward for a couple months (assuming we trade flat at 61). The 50-MA will trend down about a $1 every 6 days, assuming we trade flat at 61. From then we either break above the 50-MA (since it will come right down to the 61 we are at, or FB would have fallen. Here are my estimates.

    Date, 50-MA, 200-MA
    today, 64.15, 52.47
    +6 days, 63.13, 53.51
    +12 days, 62.11, 54.26
    +18 days, 61.06, 54.95

    At this point the 50-MA will trend flat sideways or a little up since it will hit the period where we had a few sub-60 days.

    In short, I don't think the 50-MA will cross below the 200-MA unless there is a severe market correction. And given the rate that it will slow down to in the next 4 weeks, and given that the Q2-14 announcement would be 8 weeks after that, we may get another run up into earnings that will keep the 50-MA above the 200-MA.

    Re the wedge we are in. Using open/close we have a bottom trend line that's pretty much flat right above 56. Any close below 56 in the next 2 weeks is considered bearish IMHO. The top trend line (connect 72.59 and 63.65) was pretty much hit today. So either we have a break out in the next 1-2 days (i.e. a close above 62), or we continue the bounce between the trend lines which means back down to the 56 range. If we then bounce off the 56, we must then close above $60 to break out of that new trend line top.

    The F8 Conf that FB just hosted was well timed in that I think it significantly reduced the max pain FB would get over the summer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Notice FB using iphone in its graphics.

    by factspls88 Apr 30, 2014 1:30 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Apr 30, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    Saw a Nexus 5 in there too. ;)

  • Reply to

    Impressive as hell man!

    by whoozyurdaddi Apr 30, 2014 1:40 PM
    guy11288 guy11288 Apr 30, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    Just wait till they start putting the WhatsApp and Oculus and FB technology all together.... patience guys ... its coming!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 guy11288 Apr 29, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    Link points to an Article from AUG 2012. #idiot

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Three Black Crows

    by m.moc63 Apr 28, 2014 11:30 AM
    guy11288 guy11288 Apr 28, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    Is it normal to use the closing price (53.53) when referring to gaps? I've almost always seen gaps referred to by the high of the low day, and the low of the day it gapped up. In that case 54.95 was the gap target and we finally (after 3 months) closed the gap. Not saying it won't go lower, but from a technical perspective, I believe the gap is closed.

    At this point, there are lots of possible support levels between the 55 where we are at and the 200-MA at 52.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 guy11288 Apr 28, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    FYI .... Not that it makes a damn diff...but that works out to about 43B , not 100B.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Will prob trigger more sell off and add to the negativity in the market. TWTR is about 7% away from its 52-week low.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • guy11288 by guy11288 Apr 24, 2014 11:39 PM Flag

    Some technical thoughts on FB.

    1. Chaikin Money Flow was up today....given the huge volume, this is a positive sign for next week (imho)
    2. RSI is at 47, below the mid 50 mark ... so by no means overbought in the short-term.
    3. If we can hold a little gain tomorrow, both the 5-EMA and the 13-EMA should cross over the 20-EMA.
    4. We bounced right between the mid and high Bollinger Band today, which seems to be the normal case when we are in an uptrend.

    General thoughts
    Product wise, the future looks bright for FB. We have:
    1. Premium Video Ads (effectively delayed 6-9 months so users can get more accustomed to seeing silent auto-play videos per Sheryl Sandberg)
    2.Full roll out of ads on Instagram. (Recall that Instagram signed a $100M deal with Omnicom just last month)
    3.FB Mobile Ad Network

    Its a bit frustrating as an investor that products take 12-18 months to roll out (from alpha to ver 1), but as a software engineer with startup experience, I can confirm that that amount of time is actually not long by any means.

    For now I'm holding through this quarter while paying close attention to the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

NUAN
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