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True Religion Apparel, Inc. Message Board

gwconcord 102 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 3:55 PM Member since: Apr 14, 2005
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  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 17, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    I've been mentioning to people on this board since the stock was in the teens in 2009 that I thought international was important. There were people making equally inane points to your frequent flier comment about international then before international sales went from a few stores to about 35% of all sales. I'm sure when you get your fortune cookie with your meal, it will, as I have, wish you good luck!

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 17, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    Always remember, if you are going to make the same obscure Ashton Kutcher point later, do it from the same Yahoo ID. Posting it from a different ID, looks like you're posting from multiple IDs, especially given all the other arguments and writing style are the same.

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 17, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    "Remember Ashon and Taylor" asks HedgeFundsAreCrooks less than 30 minutes after stuckinamobile says the CEO is trying to "recapture the days of Taylor Swift and Ashton."

    Speaking of remembering things, remember when you just posted the same obscure irrelevant argument from a different ID 30 minutes earlier? Apparently you forgot. I'll bump them both up to help you remember.

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 17, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    " And in reality, l last year WAS a loss. Income declined substantially. They LOST income."
    Oh, here comes this point again. Do you really expect us to believe there are a bunch of shorts on this board who believe a decline in income is a "loss?" That would mean that a bunch of people who know nothing about financial statements coincidentally shorted this stock, and started posting on this board, often forgetting which account they logged into, revealing fake conversations.

    "feel free to ask me anything about Chinese brand culture or Shanghai shopping"
    Again, taking sarcasm literally. Your posts indicate you know nothing about these topics. You don't even have to go to China to see how far off you are on what Chinese consumers think about aspirational brands.

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 16, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    "Now teens want to be "themselves" not what ANF tells them they should be. That is a theory. You need to learn the difference between the two."

    Thank you for your clarification of your theory. Now we are all able to understand that you got your predictions of a loss last year completely wrong, based on the theories that you have been repeating since then, and also that you take sarcasm literally. But great to know you have such an informed theory about Chinese brand culture, and what age group will be buying the merchandise in Shanghai. I could have saved so much time visiting China by just reading your fashion theories. Again, good luck to you!

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 16, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    "There may still be a line on the first day the store is open (Shanghi April 19th) but after they see the premium price tages"
    Thank you for your theory. Not consistent with the recent rise of something like 40% in Same Store Sales in China, or the fact that many people in Shanghai are *very* rich, but best of luck to you.

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 16, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    " If you venture to an overseas H&M or Uniqlo flagship store, the clothing is more in keeping with local tastes."
    That's awesome that you no so much about that since you just learned what fast fashion is. The clothing in the H&M stores I've been to around the world has prices on the tags for many currencies, including in North America. It's the same stuff. But it's funny you think nobody outside America is interested in American looks. Be sure to continue not researching anything and don't read up on Tommy Hilfiger, a brand that also does not support your ramblings.

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 16, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    Glad to see you find suggestions they should reconsider their highest margin store strategy thought-provoking. Perhaps you should start a public company with the author to give longs something to short.

  • 1. He says: "The Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) huge flagship store, sigh.....I don't even know where to begin."

    I suggest you begin with looking at the sales numbers coming from these stores since London opened around 2008. You are an analyst so can probably find this information from the conference calls (did you participate on those calls?), even though you missed any store sales info in your article.

    2. He says: "Well, then if the flagship store strategy is working so wondrously, why have these things happened: From the aforementioned 10-k: "The company is in the process of evolving its consumer engagement strategy, going beyond its iconic in-store experiences to further develop leading digital experiences."

    Are you suggesting that a current apparel company shouldn't develop digital experiences in 2014? Hard to tell if you're suggesting that since you didn't mention this company's online sales are up.

    3. He says "Only one flagship store opened in 2013, an Abercrombie & Fitch in Korea. Abercrombie & Fitch opened five flagships in 2011."

    So what? Do you know how many years in advance these openings are planned? Did you forget about the recession in Europe? I would think actual numbers about margins in these stores would be more relevant, but you didn't discuss that.

    4. He says "Abercrombie & Fitch took a $14.6 million asset write-down in 2011 related to the reconfiguration of three flagship locations."
    How does that compare to profits at the other locations? Specifically in NYC, London, and Hong Kong. Is $14.6 million a relatively large or small number? I'd wager small.

    5. He says "Prices, too high."
    Are people paying these prices? That would seem to be the relevant thing to discuss. For the record, I've seen people with bags walking out of flagships in Europe, Asia, and NYC since 2008.

    An entire article where the only number is $14.6 million. No mention of sales in these stores, or four-wall margins, or any other quantitative measurements. Now that's sill

  • Reply to

    yahoo reports after hours today

    by gwconcord Apr 15, 2014 11:58 AM
    gwconcord gwconcord Apr 16, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    "It's just ONE store."
    That's been my thought all along for A&F. Even in a recession, it was only one A&F flagship in London, so there are enough people in that city that can afford the London premium-compared-to-the-U.S. pricing. Meanwhile, as you've indicated you travel a lot, you must have noticed that H&M has stores on what seems like every block in major European shopping districts, comparable to Starbucks here. So H&M can have stores on every block in every European and Asian city. A&F just needs one store.

    But back to Hollister, IMHO, people with money in Japan love the seagull, based on what I've seen.

  • Reply to

    yahoo reports after hours today

    by gwconcord Apr 15, 2014 11:58 AM
    gwconcord gwconcord Apr 16, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    Have to disagree. I think she said search and display (their current main business) metrics are up. Search - they are tied into an agreement with Microsoft they want out of, which is before her time, so you can't blame her for that. They have increased their mobile presence to something like 400 mill monthly active users, which is good. Tumblr is very popular, but social networks tend to role out ads slowly. Sure, they need to get more advertisers on board, which is not something that happens overnight.

    As for ANF, only point is a lot of people in the media are saying China is slowing down, and China's number one online retailer is reportedly doing very well.

  • Reply to

    yahoo reports after hours today

    by gwconcord Apr 15, 2014 11:58 AM
    gwconcord gwconcord Apr 15, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    And Alibaba reports an increase of earnings of 110% year over year. IMHO China looks good for ANF's Shanghai flagship opening later this week.

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 15, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    I'm not going to bother reading Hedge Funds Are Crooks rambling "Facts are Facts" post. Instead I'll just bump this up, where he incorrectly stated something as fact. Maybe giving this observation a thumbs down will magically make his inaccurate statements transform into facts. :)

  • They usually give an update of how Alibaba is doing (one quarter behind), which will be interesting to see as an indicator of how China is doing.

  • Reply to

    Shorts under attack. What else is new.

    by hedgefundsarecrooks Apr 15, 2014 11:21 AM
    gwconcord gwconcord Apr 15, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    "Why is it when you find a #$%$ overpriced stock and you invest by shorting the stock becasue you think the stock price is artificially inflated by hedge fund and institution owners that keep pumping the stock becasue they can not sell it.....You are not treated as an investor.....you are treated like some bad person"

    Hahahahaha. Why are you not treated like an investor of a company for which you have no voting power? And who said you were a bad person? Sure you've printed inaccurate information as fact, even after being told where to find the correct facts, but that doesn't necessarily make you a bad person. Just a bad-at-posting-accurate facts person.

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 15, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    Oh, I should have said this week, "The Sitch On Fitch" says the store is opening April 19. That gives you the rest of this week to explain how nobody lines up outside the stores for this stuff.

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 15, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    " I have bee overseas and sought out the ANF store."

    That's unfortunate that you've been paying obsessive attention and visiting somewhere overseas and haven't seen a line anywhere in your research. Don't worry, I'm sure they'll be plenty of ways to view the lines online when they open the Shanghai flagship next week. Which ANF store do you say you visited overseas?

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 15, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    "The surprising thing about brands here is not that they are in decline, but that they resisted decline for as long as they have."
    I don't find this surprising. I asked the short(s) on this board to name one teen brand that has disappeared over the past 20 years, and they ignored the question. Gap and Guess would have looked like they were in the decline at the end of the 1990s. Polo by Ralph Lauren and Lacoste may have seem done in the 1980s. A clothing brand has to really do a lot wrong over a long period of time to disappear.

  • gwconcord gwconcord Apr 15, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    My point here was that it is harder for some of the shorts on this board to argue the brand is finished, as some have been doing. They have suggested more than once that any increase in online searches or online/mobile interest in the brands is due only to people reading about controversies and "perverts" looking online at ANF pics. I have said that a more sensible explanation for increased online activity is people are looking at the clothes online. As online sales are up, that seems to support that theory more than the pervert theory. While I doubt any of them really are serious about the pervert theory, if they were, I'd say they're denying the possibility of a more logical explanation.

  • We've seen today that @HollisterCo & @Abercrombie both have a higher Klout score than @Forever21.

    A short argued that these things can be manipulated, which is a reasonable argument to make.

    Then we saw later today that the Status People App for Twitter, which claims to be able to count fake Twitter followers indicates A&F and Hollister have 6-7% fake followers, while Forever 21 has 17%.

    Which is really quite perfect timing for the likes of Barron's to start saying that Fast Fashion is more popular, and aspirational clothing is out.

    By the way, Forever 21 is popular! Although I've never seen a line-up in their Times Square store, and I have in ANF's Fifth Avenue flagship, the private Forever 21 appears to be doing quite well.

    These points just make it tougher for shorts to argue that ANF's brands are "done," "finished," or "unpopular."

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