How many Tuesdays has the market gone down over the past few months? There doesn't appear a lot of shorts to be smoked. Yahoo showing a 2% short interest at the end of April. We'll see how the newer shorts do.
Lots of buying into earnings despite bad media coverage about the company. Apparent bad news did not scare off whoever was buying then. Same thing may continue. We'll see.
Thanks. I wasn't really commenting on the opening price, but what happens afterwards. I'm assuming the best way for massive institutional traders to make money in day-trading is to use algorithms where as few as possible retail day-traders and options traders, long or short, make money.
Wouldn't a good manipulative move be to let everyone short at the open, and then make sure it closes slightly higher than the open? I'm not a day trader, but if I was a computer, that's how I would do it. :)
Everyone's blaming the weather. Probably because it was snowing in many parts of the world in mid-April which is not typical. These guys seemed to mainly blame decisions on inventory quantities, which they took responsibility for.
I think it's time someone started asking about Ezra Fitch's comments in 1892!
Presumably, if this company viewed this "controversy" as "material" they would have commented on the call.
According to Jeffries on the call. Not saying the quarter was good, but this was one positive point made. Don't know why nobody has asked about the sizing controversy yet on the call.
And Soho pop-up store opens this weekend. IMO, there's no way to spin, given the success of K&K and 7% increase in women's SSS how either of these events will somehow cause them to have a bad quarter.
"Kids have been saying that Abercrombie isn't cool for a couple of decades now. Maybe it's popular with the uncool kids."
It's funny because it's true. If there's one thing that's safe to say from this clothing-size controversy is that Facebook is uncool. Imagine you're a high school kid who clicked "like" on Abercrombie and now your newsfeed is full of messages how your mom refuses to let her kids shop at ANF over and over. And while we're at it, your newsfeed is filled with all kinds of comments from your mom, as is your Facebook page.
I'll add that parents have been boycotting this company for various reasons for decades. We'll hear an interesting conference call tomorrow to see if this time around they're having any effect.
Thanks for a rare well-thought analysis on a message board. I still disagree, because:
1. You haven't discussed the other numbers, namely five Q of rising SSS, and 7% rising women's SSS.
2. I think analysts ought to have been factoring in the impact of the 53rd week as it's been discussed for some time on all of the various retail conference calls I listen to.
3. If it's profitable, is the fact there's an extra week that big a deal? Further, if that week is good, that means back-to-school will be off to a good start, which hopefully would be a good sign for Q3.
4. I'm guessing they're being conservative in their guidance. I think in the call they mentioned it was based on current trends. I would imagine they can't add a future impact of a Kardashian show mentioning their brand on their show on the company's brand perception among viewers.
At the end of the day, a lot of people want to ignore the meaningless of the derivative liability GAAP "loss." If this was so meaningful, where were you guys pointing out the GAAP "profit" for the 3rd quarter of last year? It's very simple. The company issued warrants giving an affiliate of Golden Gate the right to buy shares at $1.75. When the stock rises above $1.75, they have a paper loss. When it falls below $1.75, they have a gain. This has all been disclosed, so people do your own due diligence to confirm whether what I said is accurate, but my money is on every analyst and institutional investor knows how it works.
You're including the derivative liability in there, which is completely meaningless, because the paper "loss" increases when the stock rises, and decreases when the stock goes down. That's why they look at non-gaap numbers. If you don't understand this, you should really read up on it.
2Q EPS guidance (0.05) to + 0.02
If they get the +0.02 EPS, that will be the first profitable non-GAAP quarter since before the financial crisis. And with Keeping Up With the Kardashians schedule to air soon, I hope they make it with improved brand recognition for PacSun thanks to the show, based on the previews I've seen online.
I'm not arguing with anyone. I just posted helpful information for people who read a stock message board actually hoping for any useful information they can further research.
Speaking of research, since it seems you don't know the difference between people who wear hipster and preppy clothing, you can ask a young person who does. Or if you don't know any, you can go to urbandictionary. Then you can post more about "low information crowds" since you will ironically have more information than when you posted your original message.
URBN's core customer (20+ year old hipsters, or "upscale homeless," as their CEO calls them according to buzzfeed), are not the same core customer as ANF (high school/college kids/older European and Asians who can fit into small sizes and like American brands). I'm sure there is overlap, but these companies are targeting very different groups.
Maybe if they weren't reporting earnings after hours that Tuesday theory might mean something. What it does tomorrow depends on whether shorts want to cover before earnings and longs want to hold through earnings, IMO.
Source #1: PacSun Twitter Feed
If you search the City University of New York web site, you can find further details in a job search ad, namely that the store is advertised to be open from May through September, and will be located near Broadway & Prince, which if you do further research is near the Apple store. This is also near the Hollister Epic store, which has been busy when I was there on a summer day.