...where the 50-day moving avg crosses below the 100 day....the last 2 times that occurred (2001 /2008) we saw drops of 37% and 48%....So, I'm walking around my "hovel" in San Diego, mumbling "death cross...death cross"...where's my Cabarnet ! calm my nerves....This could the big one...a return to 'reality"...lions lying down with sheep...dogs & cats..."gender identity" bathrooms...anti-establishment candidates...hmmm...Oh well, I'm at 92.5% cash....whatever happens, happens...But I just could not see any real upside to this market without more and more "money printing" (risk/reward...my alpha-omega)....Yeah, we had a recovery...but just how much was FED propping...and politics...and financial engineering...I'm too old for this "C"...gimmie a good 25-50% correction...as we head into NOVEMBER....
excerpt..."Investors might take note then of the current multiple of the equity market. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is about 16.4 times, versus the 10-
year average of 14.2 times. It has been creeping up too. The same ratio was 16.1 times at the start of the first quarter, reflecting a 0.4% rise in the index while earnings estimates have declined.
Edgerton warns not to be fooled. Earnings began falling in 2000 and 2007, providing some warning of the 2001 and 2008 recession. Yet, analysts at the time, Edgerton says, like now, dismissed the drops initially, saying it was just high-tech and just financials. “An optimistic analyst could have convinced himself there was nothing to worry about,” he says.
And they would have been very, very wrong... "
(I'm at 85% cash...stepping aside, basically, until NOV...and beyond? individual decision...I just desire dry powder right now)
Yeah...even tho I have 80% in cash now, 10% is in HRTG with the remaining 10% invested in some others...I did opt for some WDC today...near it's 52 week low...Great company - just a lousy sector...shrinking...But they are the leader...good divvy / good payout ratio / low debt, etc...so, I'll cost avg it...Chart guys say it can go much lower...I don't know about that - so, I'll cost avg if it does, for the divvy....GL
Gosh...well, I'm gettin' so tired of this market...tired of playin'...well, I am an older guy...hahaha...I guess I'm just infatuated with cash & gardening now...I even sold off some more stocks today, like AMAG / ENDP / ARCB / RRTS....booked gains and losses (net)...but makes Fidelity happy.....80% cash now....Oh, I know I had until NOV to get to 80%...and I'm not sayin' I won't buy tads of things along the way...Maybe it's the new "bathroom issue" that has me 'down'? I lived a long life with just MEN / WOMEN (HERREN und DAMEN) toilet facilities...I think the world has gone NUTS...Either something's in the bottled water (plasticizer?)...or maybe cellphones have altered people's brains?...But I've never seen such craziness. I DID SEE THE EXIT POLL QUESTIONS...92% of people "have had it" with the FED GOVT...So, we're gonna have an Establishment vs. Anti-establishment GENERAL ELECTION & Jeff Gundlach (bond king) says TRUMP will win...I even read some 27 y.o. lady's comments on Trump...She hates Trump 7 ways to Sunday...but she said she'll vote for him - just wants CHANGE !!...GL
everyone....MR. CASH / SAN DIEGO (ps...still have my HRTG shares tho...)
I think we'll see $16 at some point....I do have lots of cash right now, but I do run into stocks to buy...Like ARCB / RRTS...up about 4% and 13% respectively, in a week...and did get some LCI back, today, under $18...and even got some ENDP at 15.50...I wasn't gonna, but given they have so many generics, it's probably a decent bet, on enterprise value (?)...well find out...Oh, and did get some RAIL 2 days ago...maybe up about 3-4% on that one....One I got, but hasn't done well, is AMAG...maybe down 3% on it...small position....Oh, and I did get some WDC in the $36's...then it popped back nicely...nice divvy / decent debt / good payout ratio...whatever...BUT...BUT, I still have November in my sights...i.e. when YELLEN will no longer have to support Obama and Hillery...After Nov, all bets are OFF....and I hope to be around 80% cash, at a minimum (right now, at 68% cash)....I'd rather sit on the sidelines when that time comes...just to be SAFE...Where the markets go after that, I don't know?...and what the CB's will be doing?...continue to 'prop" the markets for the rich?...hahaha
HRTG still my biggest holding...uh huh...yep.
I feel a good ol' Oct 1987 flash crash coming on...if I'm right, i'll be a genius...if I'm wrong, no one will remember my prediction...how can I lose?
hahaha...yeah...he right...then he's wrong...then right...wrong....hahaha...nothing better to do? too much time on his hands, searching for ego....Anyway, looks like all the pre-selling the last few months was already discounted into the earning's release? But I'll not make predictions...short term...fool's game...I've got 46% in CASH...and hope to get it to around 80% before the elections...Me and Druckenmiller...This 5-6 yr WEIMAR 'liquidity driven' market is old in the tooth, imo...but they did keep that housing bubble going for years, until it popped ...But generally, historically, recessions come about via big rate hikes by the FED (yellen won't do that, to protct Obama and get H into the WH...but after the elections?)...or by some psychological factors...sentiment...or "last fool into the 'game'?...But the "computer robots" control trading now...(skylab !!? hahaha)...So, could even get some one day, 23% plunge, ala OCT 1987 ...I'd not be surprised...black swan...to get valuations to saner levels...I LIKE CASH.
got some around 38 to start a small position - to cost avg on further 5% drops...I'm probably early, but I do like the valuations...Chart guys say 32-36 area? tea leaves?...Oh, i'm sure it could go lower...but I like WDC down here...I'm not as positive on STX...too much debt and payout ratio over 100%...And who knows - maybe INTC would go after them...but I hear INTC might just wanna go after the "cloud centers" vs. hardware...GL
it's going to get ugly?...going to?...well, down 25% in 2 days on high volume...Oh, I did get some today at 9.10...better than $12.10 a couple days ago ....just gimmie a dead cat bounce...or maybe I'll just cost avg it down & hold it?...I like their stores here, where I live / good traffic...and summer's coming...but sure, a nice "dead cat" bounce by Monday would be cute. GL
Some other stock ideas ....I'd gotten some RRTS back in Dec-Jan....later, was up 80%+ on the shares...sold em'...Now it's all the way back down...trucking companies have seen declining revenues...sooo...I like to buy low and cost avg during 'bad' times...Anyway, I saw that it went to $7...but I was napping !!...then up to $7.70?...put in an order for 7.20..filled...just a small initial position to cost avg...ARCB is another one in that sector...great company....And....watch WDC...I'd begin to grab a d around $38...excellent company ina declining sector...but I like the valuations / low debt / dividend...much better than STX
my cost avg is at 13.19...not too bad...and this morning? "it was the worst of times...it was the best of times" (Dickens?)...So, would have been nice to get that $12 low price...but 12.10 was ok...I put in an order around $12 for more, just in case...I think the BV rose a bit...$11.94 now? So, mgmt. should probably be buying more back, down here, I'd imagine...GL
I got some a few days ago...I didn't think their quarter was all that bad...So, I got some ...I'm up on the shares...And I did get a small tad of WDC today...Nice dividend / sustainable / low debt...People don't like the outlook of that sector, but it's had a nice beatdown (and "the cloud" ain't going away)...and much better than rival STX. Oh, and got a tad of ARCB today, on the drop...One of my old favorites, that has also been beaten down....I just buy small initial positions on things I like...and cost avg on 5-10% further pullbacks...I keep it small...and currently have 50% in cash. (& HRTG is 'interesting'...but soze the Black Death...sooo, but it's got great valuations...CEO is very greedy tho)
i.e. get Obama to the finish line...get Hillery elected...and then the fed can raise rates...things can correct...markets can fall...but 'what's done is done', election-wise
"...There’s nothing unusual in itself about the president meeting with the Chair of the Federal Reserve over lunch to discuss policy. Bush 43, for example, frequently met with Alan Greenspan to discuss the economy.
But this meeting is different…
This isn’t a casual lunch. It’s a high-profile, last-minute meeting Obama orchestrated. The last time something like this happened was in 1951, when Harry Truman summoned the entire Federal Reserve Board of Governors to the White House. Since this is something that hasn’t happened in almost 70 years, today’s meeting is a fairly extraordinary event.
Why did Obama order the meeting? There are a few factors to consider…
Number one, Obama does not want the Fed to raise rates. If the Fed remains on its path of interest rate hikes this year, it would give the Republicans the strongest chance at the White House in this fall’s election. That’s because rate hikes would likely lead to recession, and that would bode poorly for the Democrats.
Obama is deeply concerned about his legacy, which the Republicans would like to reverse. So the best chance the Democrats have in the upcoming presidential election is if rates stay low. Janet Yellen herself is a Democrat, with a background as a labor economist and a career at U.C. Berkeley. She’s not necessarily hostile to Obama’s message.
By bringing her to the White House, Obama is sending Yellen a highly visible public message. Don’t raise
rates. You can consider this meeting more like an implied threat. "
ok...ok...I'll give you a hint on my plans with HRTG...I'd probably sell back some shares around $16, that I recently bought in the high $12 area...call em' trading shares...Frankly, HRTG had no %#@& business going below 16...but it did...easy for shorts to push it around...low volume...unfollowed pretty much...So, maybe the shorts will have to unwind now. But yeah...$16 seems fair...but I'd hold some shares still...wouldn't sell it all - besides, the #$%$ CEO has a 5 yr vesting period on his "stock gifts"...so, if he likes money...and we all know his world revolves around it...then it's in his interest to push em' back up, at some point...Now, I'll leave you 'guys" alone...sprinkling outside...put out the orchids and anthurium, etc etc...fed all the birds...now go watch golf maybe...Still fretting about having to go to Texas soon...parents need some help...90 & 94...geeeez...I wish they lived closer.
gosh....I should have added that, right now, I have not "skimmed off" any HRTG shares...and it's my biggest % holding ...and since it's at it's lows already...basically... (hahaha), well, I'm not planiing on selling shares (right now)...I think it has more to run...got way oversold...good valuations...cash flows.....super low p/e....lousy CEO...all the wonderful ingredients...Well, mostly all...... (so the "above" post was not to suggest dumping HRTG...At least wait until I do...then I'll give you the green light...It's the least I can do...like any politician would do...looking out for you !!) : 0
Read a ZACKS article ..."Sell in May? Absolutely!"...you can look it up. Let's just say that I sleep a bit better at night, with more in cash right now (APPROX 50%)...But I'm not timing the markets. I've seen some great hedge fund mgrs., since 2013, calling for a crash or a recession....They were probably correct, but the FED has always stepped in with QE and low rates...so, you just can't predict anything, anymore...with the FED massively involved...Reminds me of a mini-Weimar 1921-23 market, which rose , during a recession, on nothing more than excessive liquidity...
Anyway, my "PLAN" is to add more to cash over time, if the markets continue to rise...2100?2150? who knows?...but I do hope to have maybe 75-80% sometime in the future (before xmas)...skim off cash from stocks as best I can...And like I always say..."macros trump micros"...i.e. even the best of companies get killed in a (big) market correction...and that's when I hunt for cheap GEMS / that's when CASH IS KING..........But I'll even be skimming off stocks I do like, as I know even the best of companies / stocks get hit...I saw the AAPL chart...or any other chart for that matter,... back in FEB, with that mini-pullback....Everything got pulled down...I think AAPL went to $82...and that was before this latest bad news on their earnings....So remember, even stocks that look solid, like Google or Facebook or AAPL can also be pulled down.
Well, they've generally beat their earning's targets...and let's hope they beat on revenues...I'd think they'd better have a good showing, after all the money the CEO has raked in...
I WAS SO BORED - ...I actually got a very small position in AAPL...Hey, I suppose it can go to the $80's (?)...but I just wanted to watch it on the screen...I think everyone's thrown the sink at it...even ICAHN, on TV...Soooo, a "fun" play...they have gobs of cash...Maybe they'll just become another MSFT, going from a high growth company to more of a cash flow, dividend stock...valuations are fine. But mostly "cash" for me. Those "pharms" got killed...I was lucky to have sold off major portions, but the stuff remaining got killed...hahaha...CAN THEY GO LOWER?...gosh...but I'll hold what I have.
(I used to like a company ...ARCB...well, they had an 8% hit...went negative on earnings...but I've loved that one in the past...if it continues to go down, I'd be interested in starting a position...). And I still think RHI looks quite decent...ok valuations and a divvy, after they got pounded for 12.5% drop a couple days ago...their report looked very decent...sooo...?). But mostly, I like the cash I hold...it's hard to be patient !