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iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped Message Board

h5n1eric 158 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Jan 15, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Adding RHI

    by jorgensen.brian Apr 28, 2016 12:07 AM

    I got some a few days ago...I didn't think their quarter was all that bad...So, I got some ...I'm up on the shares...And I did get a small tad of WDC today...Nice dividend / sustainable / low debt...People don't like the outlook of that sector, but it's had a nice beatdown (and "the cloud" ain't going away)...and much better than rival STX. Oh, and got a tad of ARCB today, on the drop...One of my old favorites, that has also been beaten down....I just buy small initial positions on things I like...and cost avg on 5-10% further pullbacks...I keep it small...and currently have 50% in cash. (& HRTG is 'interesting'...but soze the Black Death...sooo, but it's got great valuations...CEO is very greedy tho)

  • i.e. get Obama to the finish line...get Hillery elected...and then the fed can raise rates...things can correct...markets can fall...but 'what's done is done', election-wise

    "...There’s nothing unusual in itself about the president meeting with the Chair of the Federal Reserve over lunch to discuss policy. Bush 43, for example, frequently met with Alan Greenspan to discuss the economy.

    But this meeting is different…

    This isn’t a casual lunch. It’s a high-profile, last-minute meeting Obama orchestrated. The last time something like this happened was in 1951, when Harry Truman summoned the entire Federal Reserve Board of Governors to the White House. Since this is something that hasn’t happened in almost 70 years, today’s meeting is a fairly extraordinary event.

    Why did Obama order the meeting? There are a few factors to consider…

    Number one, Obama does not want the Fed to raise rates. If the Fed remains on its path of interest rate hikes this year, it would give the Republicans the strongest chance at the White House in this fall’s election. That’s because rate hikes would likely lead to recession, and that would bode poorly for the Democrats.

    Obama is deeply concerned about his legacy, which the Republicans would like to reverse. So the best chance the Democrats have in the upcoming presidential election is if rates stay low. Janet Yellen herself is a Democrat, with a background as a labor economist and a career at U.C. Berkeley. She’s not necessarily hostile to Obama’s message.

    By bringing her to the White House, Obama is sending Yellen a highly visible public message. Don’t raise
    rates. You can consider this meeting more like an implied threat. "

  • Reply to

    yep...Mr Cash...is back...Saturday

    by h5n1eric Apr 30, 2016 11:24 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 30, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    ok...ok...I'll give you a hint on my plans with HRTG...I'd probably sell back some shares around $16, that I recently bought in the high $12 area...call em' trading shares...Frankly, HRTG had no %#@& business going below 16...but it did...easy for shorts to push it around...low volume...unfollowed pretty much...So, maybe the shorts will have to unwind now. But yeah...$16 seems fair...but I'd hold some shares still...wouldn't sell it all - besides, the #$%$ CEO has a 5 yr vesting period on his "stock gifts"...so, if he likes money...and we all know his world revolves around it...then it's in his interest to push em' back up, at some point...Now, I'll leave you 'guys" alone...sprinkling outside...put out the orchids and anthurium, etc etc...fed all the birds...now go watch golf maybe...Still fretting about having to go to Texas soon...parents need some help...90 & 94...geeeez...I wish they lived closer.

  • Reply to

    yep...Mr Cash...is back...Saturday

    by h5n1eric Apr 30, 2016 11:24 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 30, 2016 11:31 AM Flag

    gosh....I should have added that, right now, I have not "skimmed off" any HRTG shares...and it's my biggest % holding ...and since it's at it's lows already...basically... (hahaha), well, I'm not planiing on selling shares (right now)...I think it has more to run...got way oversold...good valuations...cash flows.....super low p/e....lousy CEO...all the wonderful ingredients...Well, mostly all...... (so the "above" post was not to suggest dumping HRTG...At least wait until I do...then I'll give you the green light...It's the least I can do...like any politician would do...looking out for you !!) : 0

  • Read a ZACKS article ..."Sell in May? Absolutely!"...you can look it up. Let's just say that I sleep a bit better at night, with more in cash right now (APPROX 50%)...But I'm not timing the markets. I've seen some great hedge fund mgrs., since 2013, calling for a crash or a recession....They were probably correct, but the FED has always stepped in with QE and low rates...so, you just can't predict anything, anymore...with the FED massively involved...Reminds me of a mini-Weimar 1921-23 market, which rose , during a recession, on nothing more than excessive liquidity...
    Anyway, my "PLAN" is to add more to cash over time, if the markets continue to rise...2100?2150? who knows?...but I do hope to have maybe 75-80% sometime in the future (before xmas)...skim off cash from stocks as best I can...And like I always say..."macros trump micros"...i.e. even the best of companies get killed in a (big) market correction...and that's when I hunt for cheap GEMS / that's when CASH IS KING..........But I'll even be skimming off stocks I do like, as I know even the best of companies / stocks get hit...I saw the AAPL chart...or any other chart for that matter,... back in FEB, with that mini-pullback....Everything got pulled down...I think AAPL went to $82...and that was before this latest bad news on their earnings....So remember, even stocks that look solid, like Google or Facebook or AAPL can also be pulled down.

    GL

  • Reply to

    to 'green_bar' (others would be bored)

    by h5n1eric Apr 29, 2016 10:41 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 29, 2016 7:30 PM Flag

    Well, they've generally beat their earning's targets...and let's hope they beat on revenues...I'd think they'd better have a good showing, after all the money the CEO has raked in...
    I WAS SO BORED - ...I actually got a very small position in AAPL...Hey, I suppose it can go to the $80's (?)...but I just wanted to watch it on the screen...I think everyone's thrown the sink at it...even ICAHN, on TV...Soooo, a "fun" play...they have gobs of cash...Maybe they'll just become another MSFT, going from a high growth company to more of a cash flow, dividend stock...valuations are fine. But mostly "cash" for me. Those "pharms" got killed...I was lucky to have sold off major portions, but the stuff remaining got killed...hahaha...CAN THEY GO LOWER?...gosh...but I'll hold what I have.
    (I used to like a company ...ARCB...well, they had an 8% hit...went negative on earnings...but I've loved that one in the past...if it continues to go down, I'd be interested in starting a position...). And I still think RHI looks quite decent...ok valuations and a divvy, after they got pounded for 12.5% drop a couple days ago...their report looked very decent...sooo...?). But mostly, I like the cash I hold...it's hard to be patient !

  • Reply to

    to 'green_bar' (others would be bored)

    by h5n1eric Apr 29, 2016 10:41 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 29, 2016 10:57 AM Flag

    oh...and sold LCI...most of it,... this morning, when it was 'unchanged'...I had a good 17% profit...I like it, long term, but as I said, I've sadly become what EL ERIAN suggested...a "trader"...volatile roller coaster market...range-bound...WITH LOTS OF 'LAND MINES' DAILY...So, I went to check 15 minutes later...and LCI was getting killed, suddenly...just crazy stuff...So, was nice to jump out of it...save the CASH

  • preface...umm...others can put me on 'ignore'...not being nasty, but I'm not talking all that much about HRTG, so would be boring and probably not what others wanna read. have a good day...now, to biz
    Saw that STX crashed...I'd sold that off many days ago...oh 3-4 days ago...I always felt that one could/should go to $20 to even be close to the valuations of WDC (down 10% as well), which is a much better 'relative' play / ...but even WDC needed to go to the $30's for me to get interested...unless INTC wants to grab it...good fit, but INTC probably desires data centers vs the hardware companies....zzz /// Sold off more STOCKS...OR SHAVED THEM...ONES LIKE hznp / prgo / endp...xrx...ahhhh...Basically, I have a trip to Texas coming up, and I just desired to move to a lot more cash...just have it sit there until I can devote more time to "stocks"...and anyway, I don't see any great boom coming to the stock market....Hopefully, I can get a very nice summer correction...10% or more. Id rather rest up and just wait for this FED induced, overpriced asset bubble to come back to saner valuations...52% cash right now...biggest holding is HRTG...That's how contrarian I am...the most hated one....hahaha...later

  • Reply to

    green_bar....grrrrrrrrrrr

    by h5n1eric Apr 26, 2016 10:37 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 5:11 PM Flag

    I think you may be my cousin !! I do...I mean, we are thinking alike (wouldn't put it past him)...i.e. I've looked at CRR a few times over the past week...but I think it isn't even earning a profit...and I don't think the forward p/e was good...so, I know I passed on that one.
    I thought it might me decent if drilling came back, but seems like it's not having a lifting effect on the stock...I used to own NOV...but sold it for a profit...shoulda' kept it...but...but...if the markets get another PLUNGE...and the tide goes out...a lot of gems will appear on the beach !

  • Reply to

    green_bar....grrrrrrrrrrr

    by h5n1eric Apr 26, 2016 10:37 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 5:04 PM Flag

    is this clint eastwood? Monterey?

  • Reply to

    green_bar....grrrrrrrrrrr

    by h5n1eric Apr 26, 2016 10:37 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 5:01 PM Flag

    I ACTUALLY opted to sell some off,... of the PRGO / ENDP today...You're right...I just see no great buys out there...If I can't find decent gems, I should just stick to CASH !!... But I do get the bug to play stocks short term...probably need to stop that and settle for the cash...and accept my views on the market (overpriced) & EL ERIAN's comments....gotta be patient...Jesus...you live 500 miles North of me...hmmm...You'd better not be my cousin playing around with me...he lives in SF...I was born in ALAMEDA...But I'm not allowed to go back to SF, as I have HAIR ON MY CHEST / USE A MALE BATHROOM ONLY...AND REFUSE TO WEAR A TUTU or RIDE NEKKED IN A BIKE PARADE...I HATE SANCTUARY CITIES !...BUT MY FAVORITE PLACE IS LAKE TAHOE...INCLINE VILLAGE. We can meet there and look at the cocktail waitresses?

  • Reply to

    Compensation

    by miskeen732 Apr 28, 2016 4:30 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 4:54 PM Flag

    hey, I'm trying!...i.e. emailed MAD MONEY / CRAMER...and asked if they'd bring back the WALL OF SHAME, for the worst CEO's...Maybe I'll get lucky and he'll decide to go back to that . Ummm, well, with the stories out there about his greed, maybe it'll put a lil' pressure on him...to at least raise the dividend...I was happy to see that he has a 5yr vesting period on his shares...so, at some point, he may desire to actually try to support the stock price...we'll wait 5 years, right?

  • Reply to

    EVA...upgrade

    by h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 11:55 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 2:54 PM Flag

    Certainly "immoral"...but nice work if you can get it...Reminds me of the old CEO of JetBlue...Those guys were really milking the company of money...and when they had their fill...and the stock dropped from $60 to $5...he got out of town...went to Brasil...formed AZUL...and probably doing the same "legal scam", selling his shares/options...So, yeah, that's probably the sole reason that HRTG has gone almost back to it's IPO price, as more investors 'got a clue' as to who the company is being run for...You'd hope that Mutual Funds / Pension Funds would bang on them....or maybe some larger insurer would come in and buy up their portfolio...but this is the current landscape.
    As for stocks in general, I saw EL ERIAN this morning....wow...he sorta said what I've found myself doing...more trading / less investing...within this 1850-2050 range...and he called for a probable 10% pullback soon...and said cash was probably the best protection....So, was at least nice to hear someone confirm my recent actions...right? wrong?...Oh, I will say that I may tell you I grabbed xyz stock...but I may not own it in a week...I take profits when I can...je way it is....I plan on selling 4 stocks tomorrow...and even decided to sell tads of my PRGO / ENDP...Just had a change of heart - what it really is, is that I like CASH a bit more than owning an stock, mostly...40% Cash

  • h5n1eric by h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 11:55 AM Flag

    "On April 28, 2016 EVA Dimensions, LLC upgraded HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC ( HRTG ) from OVERWEIGHT to BUY.".....generally means diddly, but at least someone's lookin' at it...I did my buys at 12.80 this morning...just cost averaging...zzzz...gonna give it a rest now.....later.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    green_bar....grrrrrrrrrrr

    by h5n1eric Apr 26, 2016 10:37 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    ps...I'm so embarrassed to even say it...but I saw HRTG at 12.80...yep...like a moth to a flame...I'm gonna cut my fingers off !! but I got some (more)...have a nice cost avg...all I need is a 5% 'up-day'...back to even....hahaha...
    "don't buy,don't buy"...as Cramer would say....

  • Reply to

    green_bar....grrrrrrrrrrr

    by h5n1eric Apr 26, 2016 10:37 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    oh...GAP (GPS)...yeah...bought and sold...think I lost a tad...SEDG?...Never touch solar...don't get me wrong - I love the sun...also love CO2 for that matter...it's a great molecule...so hated by the Left...hahaha...But the Cambrium period was a great growth time...plethora of species...I wouldn't mind CO2 levels going a lot higher...and if it warms things up...fine...I like bikinis at the beach...or not, if you go to Black's beach (when I had a body to die for....hahaha...now?...ahhh...I'd die for a new body)

  • Reply to

    green_bar....grrrrrrrrrrr

    by h5n1eric Apr 26, 2016 10:37 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 12:51 AM Flag

    GPS, SEDG ?...don't remember these...whatever

  • Reply to

    green_bar....grrrrrrrrrrr

    by h5n1eric Apr 26, 2016 10:37 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 28, 2016 12:46 AM Flag

    Gosh...pretty hard to find forward p/e's in the 5-6 range...but yeah, if they are less than 10, I get interested...but have to pass a lot of metrics...zzz
    I've sadly sort have become more of a trader than an investor, with the markets so high...quick in-out, at times...ex : made about 9% on my Magic Jack CALL and RCKY...4 days...and sold...I also opted to sell the UVE once again...hahaha...buy in the 16.60's...sell in the 17's...up and down...I get the idea others are doing the same. WDR? OH, they do have a nice dividend...but that type of biz is not one I love- just playing the big down moves, on bad news...I'm up a tad, tho...and up a tad on the XRX...Oh, and up about 5% on the STX...And AAOI popped back today....Now for the bad dogs...I'd sold off some ENDP at 33.08 a couple days ago...and rebought the shares at 28.86...Not saying they'll stop falling, but has seemed excessive...just playing around...my cost avg around 27. And for better or worse, got some PRGO at 97....See how that goes...it's dropped a lot in the last 2-3 days...was at 121?
    oh, a new one I saw today...RHI...'Beat down' seemed too overdone...Oh, they had a slight erosion of margins...very very slight, but they looked like they had a solid quarter...you can read a Motley Fool article...Anyway, I did enter it...I mean, after their fall the last 3-6 months (to where they are now)...well, valuations get better as the price fell.
    I think that's about it...I don't even look at the ones I sent you...SAH / LAD / GPI / PAG...I was miffed I missed that big day, yesterday...but if the market has a good pullback, I'll check em' out...I have so many stock lists etc...that when the market corrects, I just search around...and I do check Fidelity daily, for "carnage" stocks...road kill...see if they got beaten up enough to look decent.
    (I'm in SAN DIEGO...So, if you live here...we can go have some wine....and cry over HRTG...my one disappointment sitting in my portfolio...) GL

  • Reply to

    CAN ANY ONE EXPLAIN THE FOLLOWING DIFFERENCE

    by trangy Apr 27, 2016 3:42 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 27, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    they should have taken the offer....and that CEO mucked up...and now jumps ship...like he's a wonder-boy...messed up...It's all rigged, like Trump says...it's those super pharma delegates, etc...we have no control...And Hitlery will protect the "riggers" on Wall Street...they own her $$...release those transcripts !!!

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Apr 27, 2016 11:26 AM Flag

    yeah...bought some at 13.18...then bought more...da da da...avg'd buys today was 13.12...had an order in at 13...missed by a penny...I'll get it filled tho...never fear...hahaha....I call this my "joke" stock/// DON'T BUY
    (just let crazy eric do the buying ...you'll get ulcers)

REM
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