Well...good luck ! Maybe when Goldman came out with their 'sell' recommendation, that was the bottom (generally when I get excited to buy things...i.e. when everyone issues 'sells'...very timely 'sells'...after they've been crushed)...plus all the taper talk recently, could have been discounted in the past few weeks and months....So, hopefully for the longs, things will firm up (or bleed less)....Just have to see how it goes, but I was not looking for much higher rates in this economy anyway...mortgage rates, that is...but have to see what happens if they do taper on the MBS purchases...(for now tho, I'm just sitting and bleeding in my reit preferreds...at some point, that'll taper off too, hopefully, although I don't worry about 'pricing' so much...it's more about nominal cash flows for me) GOOD LUCK LONGS !
I like the NRF-C&D preferreds and the RSO-B preferred stocks...They have been pushed down, like bond prices, as they are a "fixed rate payout" instrument (i.e. preferred stock)...People got all antsy when 'taper' was being discussed...and popped up the 10 yr rate (so, fixed rate payout products got pushed lower in price, like bonds, but have higher yields at lower stock prices now...i.e. probably the worst is over, on pricing, imo)....They're currently paying around 9.2% yield...I recommend them only within an IRA account, as the dividends, being a "reit", are at the higher (Fed) personal tax rate, unlike the normal dividend tax rate (but if within an IRA, then no taxes to pay, when dividends come...and I just plow the dividends back into more of them....It's basically like buying a bond, but with a higher yield...and they do expire at "par" $25, when expired by the company...but they generally run past the expire date/maturity date which is fine with me...I don't have to shop around for another fixed rate instrument....I'd imagine baby boomers will desire/need better 'cash flows' when they retire...I like these preferreds).
That happened to me once at Rallies Burger...drove all the way home to find out..."where's the beef!!"...
Yeah !...ummm...what you said! ( Oh, I can see I'm outta my league in here...but if anyone has a chemistry / drug question, I'd be happy to try &....oh, never mind). Oh, good luck to everyone....that covers it !
(yes, I completely admit I have no clue about what's coming / anyone care to guess what 2014 will look like?...gimmie red thumbs !)
or...or...how about a 1937 repeat, where after years of monetary accommodation, the govt decided maybe it had better tighten things up a bit (with new bank regs and taxes), and 'we' entered the second half of the Great Depression...Yeah, a bit melodramatic (scenario)...but I'd have to say that if the FED announced tomorrow a complete end to any further QE...oh, that would "do it", imo. So, yeah, I'm one of the few who actually doubt's that the FED even has the backbone (now) to start the
QE unwind...I'll believe it when I see it (but the pressure to do so, is mounting?)...and if they do, I expect a good slowdown...Man, they've certainly dug a nice hole to climb out of...and I have to wonder if it's even possible to avoid a recession, without constant help from the FED, going foreward? And we've got the Dodd Frank stuff...and the Volcker Rule coming... (which I read the FED would like to postpone it's rollout !...I hope it does come and LEW pushes it...let's see what happens !)...Oh, happy to see the longs have A DECENT DAY ! (but I have no position in the stock, either way)
Never like to disagree with you...and don't necessarily plan to now. It's just that I'm not so sure about FED actions...i.e. Inflation is weak and I have the gut feeling that Yellen would not like to start pulling back...i.e. I think she's still concerned about 'disinflation' prospects, esp given the Eurozone issues with same. Question is, will Yellen ignore those who want to get rid of QE...Will she bow to pressure?...That lady does not seem the type - and I doubt if she'd like to give back all the gains they've made, in propping this market up...But yeah, I hear you - the markets expect it...everyone expects it...and everyone says rates will go higher...which scares me...crowded trade...group think)...whereas I'll believe it when I see it (if they ever completely extricated themselves from these QE tricks, I have to think we might have a good slowdown or a recession...I'm in the minority maybe, but I don't think this economy is even decent...but I'll not get into my views as to why. (but IF , IF Yellen does taper by March, I'll buy you a Pinot Noir at Hotel Del Coronado...$12...I can handle that.
Well...I guess I'm an 'oddity' in that I'm now completely out of all common stocks....and parked money in bleeding preferreds...like a scardy cat...Like I said the other day, I find it a lot easier to invest when a recession has hit...I tend to find lots of 'gems', like back in 2002/2008...but after a nice 5-yr FED induced run-up, I just don't see screaming buys/gems...just a market primarily liquidity driven, but yes, companies have better balance sheets today, so it's not all about the FED. It's just a landscape that I'm not familiar with, or comfortable with....and yes, I could be sitting on the sidelines for years, if the FED continues to prop things up...and they have Yellen who knows how to do that. ugh...(but I did say I'd wait to see if they begin to taper on the MBS purchases....and see the impact on various mreits...but I'm not itching to enter the sector...Thought about seeing how IVR does...more of a hybrid. Later....
that's interesting...i.e. if people feel that mort. rates will rise (on tapering), looks like a decent / interesting stock, in a sector of scary stocks. But I came in here to 'blah blah' a bit seems as if we're in some sort of Central Bank "inflate or die" landscape...And given what I read about the concerns over 'disinflation' in the EU, falling prices in some areas...well, I just have to wonder if Yellen could ever be "pushed" to yield to the QE detractors, and actually take her foot off the QE pedal - my guess is that she'd not do that, even tho 'everyone' is saying that a taper is coming soon. So, me? I guess it's a wait-and-see thing...but I'd guess that if taper ever started and 'went to completion', then we might see a pretty good slowdown in the markets, economy? But part of me thinks that Yellen and politicians cannot take that chance, and let this propped up 'house of cards' fall...and hit the markets, pension funds, etc....We could wind up right back in 2008. I'm not looking for a 'fight' in here...I mean, I haven't seen stuff like this in history, except that maybe the 1930's parallels it a bit?...I'm just 'sitting and starring' at how all this unfolds.....I can be clearer, once things happen....hahaha...Generally, I have a decent guess about the future - but my crystal ball is cloudy...About all I keep boiling it all down to is "inflate or die"...and work foreward from there, deciding on possible outcomes....You have any ideas how all this 'artificial stuff" ends?? and when? One PhD economist friend of mine says he's looking for a 2014-15 recession, but admits that he's in the distinct minority, in his views...and worries about his job...by holding those views...END
I'm gonna wait until the FED actually begins to TAPER on their MBS purchases...That might turn out to be 'the worst of it', as mort. rates could pop higher...So, I may not pick the exact bottom, but I think it's safer to wait on the FED, to actually slow down / stop their MBS purchases...and see what the 'real world' looks like without the Wizard of OZ (but I have a feeling that they'll taper MBS last...could be awhile)
Yeah, I remember one analyst saying to "buy" SHO at $28...it did go to $31 maybe...but then the recession hit...Stock went down to $4...Then the same analyst said to "sell" !...After the sell signal, it reversed and went to $12....So, if you just did the opposite of what the 'expert analyst' said, you'd be RICH !! (when they say 'buy', sell it...when they say 'sell', 'buy' it...of course, I'm big on "macros" , so there are many other variables to look at...i.e. even good stocks get hit in a bad economy, and vice versa)....i.e. yeah, I'll listen to others, read things, etc...I have just a handful of people I'll follow , based on their track records, etc, but even they get it wrong occasionally. Probably the only thing I really learned was to go with my own feelings and studies and then make the bet...Generally, my bets would come when people were MOST NEGATIVE and the stock had caused a lot of PAIN (reminds me - I used to refer to myself as a "pain investor"...Of course, I hate to see pain in others...but it was just a signal. And in the past, the action in this stock would have drawn me like a moth to a flame, except that it's not exactly the type of stock I'd be looking for...maybe because I , too, am not a genius on mreits...But it's always fun to learn new things.
(ps...hmmm...Goldman did just issue a nice, timely 'sell' on AGNC....good timing...hahaha...they really like to help others !....soooo? Oh, but like I say, just wait for the actual MBS tapering to begin - then check it out...don't try to pick bottoms.)
Oh, I suppose everyone posting replies contains some 'truths'. And investing is a lot about timing, etc...I saw a study of the 'great stock pickers, prognosticators, etc'...Cramer was correct 47% of the time...And of course, given the 4-5 year run-up in stocks we've had, pretty much everyone is now a 'genius'...If it goes to their head, it can be dangerous in the future. Anytime I ever got to feeling happy about my 'picks' (how great I was doing), I always got knocked down later - so, any time I'm having good days / weeks / months, I have to knock myself down, mentally, and remind myself that things can change. ( "ego kills" is my motto). I'd probably say many who've been in this sector were ones who wanted / needed some high yields on their money (many seniors? probably...) And I have said that many are not sophisticated enough..that's not a 'put down'...it's just that many people don't have the time to study macroeconomics, micro, valuations, competition, cycles, etc....so they do have to rely on others, like a Cramer....But over time, they can become better, perhaps...Me? I've always been primarily a value/contrarian investor , and like "hearxhere", I had my best times after the 2002 and 2008 recessions....I love times like that...(like sex...hahaha). But right now, I'm definitely lagging the markets after having put a lot into "preferreds" to PARK MONEY. In times like these, I just have no bearings...not a momentum investor...My last decent picks were WAG / RAD / SWY...over a yr ago...but I see FEW if any gems now...so, I 'park', and let the markets 'beat me' while I wait...could be a very long wait with Yellen coming...prints? Anywayyyy, my only advice in here is the same - wait until they actually begin to taper their MBS purchases...But I have no positions yet. I'm just sitting (and slowly bleeding) in some preferreds...as rates rise a bit...divys cover the losses....tread water...But this econ. landscape is not my investing 'cup of tea'.
I'm holding off until the MBS taper actually begins...that should push mort rates a bit higher, and you might see the 'price bottom' on some like NLY / AGNC...I also feel that the 10 yr will rise a bit more, heading into the taper, but once it actually begins, we may actually see a bit of a pullback on rates, from wherever it is (i.e. markets tend to discount early, then correct back....We had the same effects, only in reverse, in QE 1,2,3 and 10 yr rates)...Bottom line: I'd not buy (more) until the MBS taper actually begins...then I'll consider it...good luck !
Actually, Mitch, I have a bit of pitty in my heart for you...and maybe...just maybe, you've not been given both sides...Here's a good teaching moment...some of my liberal friends say it's not Detroit's fault that they fell on hard times...the car industry pretty much failed there...so, not their fault. But I have to say that the car industry in Texas, Tennessee, Alabama and the Carolinas is doing very well. So, you should ask 'why'? Why couldn't the car industry thrive in Michigan? Unions...and that it's a non-right-to-work State...So, I have to say, who created the pain there...really? And let's be clear, our President (Acorn activist) is a lover of unions...why? Votes....Oh, he may actually care about getting better wages for people...but his actions have the OPPOSITE effect...He just doesn't seem to understand how economics works....and that is sad, if that's his goal....Instead, he just tells people to go out and picket for more wages, go on strike, etc ...and the businesses disappear, creating those poor hungry people you worry about....But I tell you (not sarcastically...but as one who also cares about people), who is actually making people poor and hungry? Find me someone who understands how businesses really work...how they can create even more jobs, and that'll be the guy I want as President...I think Romney understood how business works...Sure, not everyone wins....some businesses are closed if they cannot compete...always gonna be some pain...But fighting the private sector is not the way to go...take a look at the difference in right-to-work states growth vs. union states...The right-to-work states have done so much better....I heard that Texas has created 1/3 of the new jobs since the recession ended....one state ! But somehow, Obama can't stomach that...his philosophy is so tied to unions, etc that for some reason, he cannot even consider why some things work while others have not...It's plain to see...He'll not change tho, imo...sadly
to continue: Like Margaret Thatcher used to say..."Socialism works well, until the other people's money runs out"....People have choices....if they feel one place sucks, aka CA, they can move...CA is always so concerned about helping 'the poor', they just forgot that their actions drive away jobs, etc...So, they raise even more taxes, thinking that'll solve the problem...which is doesn't...Just pushes more businesses away...i.e. politicians are panderers and short term thinkers...it's the next election they wanna 'buy'...and to heck with what happens 10-20-30 years later, when the bill comes due, ala Detroit, Stockton, Vallego, San Bernadino...and a few other BK cities here...the games eventually end....left without jobs or hope.
to continue...they now sent that work from CA to NEVADA, and have a CA certified tech sign off on the work...and send the results back to CA...So, CA destroys jobs....and the 'poor, unemployed' get hungry....In Nevada, they created jobs...and eat well !...we need job creation...and unions and non-right-to-work states just don't 'get it'...they're more concerned about getting votes for politicians in return for handouts...until the money runs out, ala DETROIT...whaich hasn't had a Republican mayor since 1957...So, now if they starve, who's fault is it?...who put them in their position of being destitute?...Like THATCHER
more melodramatics...come onnn...What the 'poor' need are JOBS...You know that Toyota has only closed one plant in their history...and that was at a union plant in Fremont Ca...poof...jobs gone...Then, Toyota built a huge state-of-the-art facility in San Antonio...voila...jobs created in a right -to-work state. Same thing happened to my 2 laboratories in CA...They got over-regulated and over fined...so they closed em' down and moved the work to Nevada...Now they sent the samples from CA
It really all boils down to economic theory, doesn't it...i.e. the 'fighting' in here. There are those who feel it's the govt's job to bail everyone out, help everyone from cradle-to-grave, without understanding the moral hazard of making people weaker and even more dependent, until they begin to look to govt to solve all their problems (become brain dead and lazy)...That would be the Keynesian crowd...the neo-progressives, who mean well, but do not understand the long term 'human' consequences of their actions....vs. me, an "Austrian"...And the gulf between those 2 philosophies is wider than the Grand Canyon...NO WAY you'll ever see any 'coming together'...and that's the struggle / deadlock in D.C....Never the twain shall meet...(but I do say that if you don't like the way the country in general is headed, the next best choice is to find a State that shares some of your values....For me, it'll likely be Texas, I suppose...lower taxes, less services...cheapie...you won't get a lot of handouts there, so you won't attract the Keynesians...hahaha....They can go to Chicago, Detroit...or other Blue Cities...and get their handouts,& no jobs vs 'right to work' states that allow you an opportunity to work, gain some respect...and be proud...Man, am I gonna get bashed now, or what, Raybans?
What's this guy's prob? got up on the wrong side of the bed, maybe (if he's long AGNC, then maybe that's why...can't blame him...but I have no idea what his position is)...I'll somewhat agree with him that seniors have fared a bit better perhaps, in some ways...but the low interest rates have hurt them too...mixed bag. Nothing to get all upset over, tho...Perhaps it's the Obama stuff - now me personally, think the guy is probably the worst Prez I ever saw...and certainly knows little about economics, imo...He has 'an agenda' and blinders on....Funny thing tho, the rich have gotten richer...and the poor have not fared well, except via handouts. Certainly the gap has widened between rich and poor...so, with all his attempts to help the poor climb out of poverty, he's not done too well (we'll blame the Repubs, right?...ahahaha...whatever).
But after such a bad recession, it would have been expected that some 'rebound' would occur...As for govt having to print money to raise asset prices, well, that isn't their function, is it? (although that seems to be the tool of choice (printing)...easier than making tough, long lasting changes that are needed.) personally, I'm just one who believes that a very limited govt is the best...and 2 Nobel winning economists have wrote about this (countries that have the least govt and the lowest taxes...have done better, historically)...I'm not for govt being in the healthcare biz at all...but that's an extreme view, I'm sure...but pre-1963 was decent, without Medicare...Oh, I could go on about education, housing, mail , trains, etc etc...blowing dough and making costs rise wherever govt's wallet is open...they did so well with SOLYNDRA...and about 16 others that went BK...money down the tubes....But I'm a Libertarian, so I'm not gonna be loved by almost anyone in here...I just want govt to pretty much leave me alone...stop reading my emails....stop trying to be involved in other country's probs...stop giving money away to our enemies
I'm just one guy...part of the 79 million baby boomer generation - and I imagine that many of them are going to NEED yield...CASH FLOW, to supplement their retirement. I've sorta been waiting for that MASS of people to show up, and start buying preferred reit stocks (where I happen to be 'parked')....but for now, it is what it is...I never try to mentally 'push' it...waste of time.
For now, maybe they like 'riding the market wave of appreciation'...and who knows, maybe the WEIMAR FED can pump up all the indexes for years, ala Germany's 8900% gain, in 1921-23 end....Sort of a dangerous game tho....But it is something I wonder about...i.e. just how many people like me are out there, getting close to retirement, and not desiring to play in "the market casino" forever...and try to find 'fixed income' investments, like muni bonds, or junk bonds, common stocks with some 4%+ yields, tobaccos, preferreds, reits, mreits, etc etc....I mean, it's almost a matter of NECESSITY for some, to invest for cash flows, cause' it may be difficult to hope common stocks rise and you 'sell of chunks' for living, as needed...Oh, just wondering, I suppose - will be interesting to see how this group of 79 million changes the investment landscape, over the coming years...and where they'll choose to invest ( maybe we'll just all die and our kids will play in the 'market casino'...and it'll never end?)