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iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped Message Board

h5n1eric 147 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 12:45 AM Member since: Jan 15, 2009
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  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 14, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    yep...they still need to service their debt...banks wanna get paid back ! so, it's a difficult situation...almost impossible to stop least the ones that already are ongoing, with fixed costs already "sunk" into the projects...But new projects get canned, ...perhaps...or...or, the banks stop the funding, and "cut em' off"...I did began a new position in EnCana,,,10.55...amazing...and yes, could bleed lower, going into the summer...but not priced as insanely as some...long term play perhaps...selling below it's all time low price....13 years ago...I'll just cost avg' it on possible 10% dips below initial price...then HOLD IT

  • Reply to

    ECA and other oil and gas producer

    by jitendrachandraroy Mar 14, 2015 2:22 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 14, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    yeah...I 'guess' that oil will bottom out in the summer...WTI $40 perhaps....but some have even lower targets...I suspect some are going to go 'belly up", as liquidity dries up, etc...and new drilling ceases...The cure for low low prices. I follow many companies...EnCana seems the best long term play right now - decent valuations / secondary already completed...they're in it for the long run....Others will not survive. I do think you could wait for the summer, and perhaps get even better deals / prices...but I opted to began a small position at $10.55...and I'll 'cost avg' from there...maybe on 10% declines, if they come...

    Is now the time to invest in EnCana?

    "EnCana is one of the largest producers of natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids in North America, and increased production of oil and natural gas liquids and decreased expenses led it to a better-than-expected fourth-quarter performance, but its stock has responded by falling over 2% in the days since the release.

    Given the strong fourth-quarter performance posted by EnCana, I think the weakness in its stock represents a great long-term buying opportunity. Also, the company pays an annual dividend of $0.35 per share, which gives its stock a healthy 2.2% yield at current levels, and this will provide additional returns to investors going forward, especially if they are reinvested.

    With all of the information provided above in mind, I think EnCana represents one of the best long-term investment opportunities in the energy industry today. Foolish investors should take a closer look and strongly consider beginning to scale in to long-term positions."

  • Reply to

    Make your calls to the bottom

    by brother_2_three Mar 13, 2015 12:50 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 13, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    I have no idea...can't help you there...(but I'll try to cost avg to your prediction price - hows that?)

  • Reply to

    My target is $7 for ECA

    by auagboy Jan 29, 2015 12:40 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 13, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    My initial buy target was $10...but heck, I opted today, to grab a tad at $10.55...will cost avg from there...if it pulls down lower....never know where the bottom is...and I never make predictions....I was also happy that they've done their SECONDARY, so that's out of the way...I calculated that some underwriters paid around $11.60 for those, I don't mind starting a position, at a buck less....BUT GOOD LUCK TO ALL...LONGS AND SHORTS....(and cost avg ...the way I try to do it)...then hold em' for 20 years.

  • "Noble currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Better-ranked oil and gas stocks include Valero Energy Partners L.P. VLP, Global Partners LP GLP and Hallador Energy Company HNRG. All these carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)."...whatever...we'll see

  • Reply to

    GLP's virtual pipeline

    by jrad52 Mar 12, 2015 3:25 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 12, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    I averaged in today, at 34.76 ...seemed a bit overdone intraday....I'd sold some around $40 , earlier. Love the dividend.

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 10, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    I have an order $25...just in case oil does one, final "tank" job...or if a recession comes to push oil down, ala 2009...never know...The order is at $25...and that may be too high...might even change it to $20....whatever...Or just cost avg down from $25....interesting times (so much QE money bloated so many stocks....need the tide to go back out to see what things are worth)

  • Reply to

    If it stinks, sell it

    by madtrader666 Mar 9, 2015 4:22 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 10, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    have an order to get an initial $51

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 10, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    I have many limit orders in for oil companies, utilities, etc...we'll see if oil gets a push to the low $40's...or if a recession eventually comes...At any rate, my order on EOG is at $65...let the rants begin. (QE bloated everything, imo)

  • Reply to

    Not a good sign if breaks below $12

    by timeforacrash Mar 9, 2015 9:57 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 10, 2015 1:04 AM Flag

    ...and I see Petrello dumped $1.5 million of stock, 2 days ago...Me?...I'd probably look to buy around $9.80...for an intial bet....If Goldman is right about needing to get rig numbers down to 2009 levels...well...I'll stand aside until we see many fewer rigs...this will continue to play out...(and if oil does also go lower - H will break loose)

  • Reply to

    SWN and CHK both off by about 6%

    by gar4one Mar 9, 2015 10:34 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 9, 2015 11:50 PM Flag

    I looked up an article on CHK in ZACK'S...They said that CHK was under pressure (selling), and said if investors are interested in this sector, they recommended another stock...So, I looked it up to see what IT DID TODAY...HAHAHA...Down 14%...The moral of the story is...NO ONE KNOWS WHAT'S GOING ON....there are no true experts, it seems...people are on their own !...listen to no one...oh, except maybe Jeff Gundlach.

  • Reply to

    bought at 16.70...then sold it...then

    by h5n1eric Mar 6, 2015 3:09 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 6, 2015 9:12 PM Flag

    Well, I do think they'll announce the asset writedown...(FASB rules)...It's just a bookkeeping event and does not entail any "costs/cash loss"...just a rule that if your inventory/holdings have materially declined in value (over 1 yr.)...then you're required to do a write down...just bookkeeping ,.... but you know how people are...i.e. might get another pop down, but probably a quick event....but maybe I'll get more then (but like I said - I have an auto order in for 13.50...about 10% below today's, I'm ok with that).

  • Yeah, I got some about a week ago at 16.70....Was gonna just 'cost avg' it...but when this oil storage issue popped up, I just opted to sell off a lot of things (only hold some LTS-A now...decent !)...the rest in cash. I've also put in some very low-ball orders, good til' cancelled...probably most are 30% below current prices, so was not gonna hold my breath on filling them - but never know...esp if the oil storage issues cause a panic down on WTI....BUT I DID grab a tad at 15.11 today...could not help myself....Those crack experts have been issuing "buy" recommendations for the last few they are good, huh?...amazing...But heck, with the 9.5% drop on price, in a week, well..."invest in the pain" (more of a behavioral approach?)...I do have an order standing at, maybe that'll fill too?...never know...good luck, longs...I love the high volume today, on the washout?

  • Reply to

    Bottom in?

    by julson73 Mar 2, 2015 3:11 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 2, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    ps - As an aside, if investors in here were 'playing the rig stocks' for dividends / cash flow...I'd recommend LTS-PA...pays around 8.3% yield...pays dividends monthly...sells a buck below par. I like it...I own some....good cash flows ...fixed dilution fears....little volatility. Use limit orders only...anything below 24.00 is decent...good luck.

  • Reply to

    Bottom in?

    by julson73 Mar 2, 2015 3:11 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Mar 2, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    grabbed a tad today at 23.62...very small amt.....will add to it if I get a 10% drop from that price...I waited for the divvy cut...finally came...No, I do not know where the bottom is...and I HATE this sector...reminds me of the shipping stocks...but I am happy for the divvy cut the cash....probably a 3-5 yr play...who knows?

  • Reply to

    What are the different between PBR and PBRA?

    by dhcabinetry Feb 4, 2015 1:58 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Feb 27, 2015 7:25 PM Flag

    (from awhile back...divys may not be paid right now?...but here's the diff...)
    PBR is common stock (PETR3). Options are available for trading.
    PBR-A is preferred (mis-named) stock (PETR4). No voting rights; but dissimilar to US preferred.

    Preferred shares shall have priority in case of capital reimbursement and in the distribution of the 5% (five percent) minimum dividend, calculated on the part of the capital represented by such kind of shares, or 3% (three percent) of the net value of the share, always with the greater prevailing, with a participation equal to the common shares in corporate capital increases deriving from the incorporation of reserves and profits.

    Preferred shares shall participate non-cumulatively on equal conditions with the common shares in the distribution of dividends whenever the latter are greater than the minimum percentage as guaranteed to them in the preceding paragraph.

    According to Brazilian law, the dividend for the non-controlling share has to be at least 10% more than the controlling share (pbr with right to vote or The reason for this is to stimulate the minority investor to pick higher returns instead of the voting rights for a company.

  • Reply to

    new to CHK

    by rrt498 Feb 26, 2015 5:46 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Feb 27, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    got some at 16.70 today...just a tad...I will generally cost avg any stocks I buy, if they drop 10% more...I've bought MSFT / GLP / PBRA recently...doing pretty well...But my main holding is LTS-A preferred, paying an 8.3% yield / pays out monthly...quite stable on price...buck below par.....and 66% currently in CASH.

  • ...are now the offshore rigs of 2015...The shippers, given the high Baltic Dry Rates back in 2008, ordered many more ships - and then the recession hit...Too many ships...the day rates plummeted...the Baltic Dry Rate plunged to a 30 yr low...Now, too many "rigs" have been ordered...and the day rates are dropping...and they have to retire more rigs in the next few years than they have in the last 15 years....Once I saw the parallels, well, it looked a lot like a value trap...with dividends being cut, etc...I'm not saying the rig stocks cannot reach a level AND THEN SIT THERE...but I suspect the dividends will be meager...and I get the idea many got into these stocks looking for dividends (mostly)...the hunt for yield try going for some LTS-A preferred stock...8.4% yield...pays out monthly...FIXED PAYOUT / won't be cut....It's a very decent one, that I've been happy to own, if you desire quite secure "cash flows"...and sells for a buck under par now....anything under 24 is decent....GOOD LUCK THO...I hope the rig stocks pop and give you some nice gains, but the parallels with the "shippers" is...well, identical....and shipping stocks have stunk for 6 years !!

  • Reply to


    by harborcityinvestments Feb 19, 2015 12:14 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Feb 25, 2015 8:26 PM Flag

    Try adding some LTS-A preferred.....pays monthly...non-reit...around 8.4% yield that one

  • Reply to

    Restore Dividends NOW....

    by mycroftt2 Feb 25, 2015 2:39 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Feb 25, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    If you (and many others) desire dividends to supplement "cash flows" in retirement, I suggest LTS-A ...Paying around 8.4% or so, per yr....FIXED PAYOUTS (not subject to reduction/cuts)...pays the dividend monthly....and no dilution fears, ala common. Yes, thee are other stocks like mortgage reits, etc etc that can pay a bit more...but with more downside risk.... You go with LTS-A and just enjoy the monthly cash flows....(ps. only use limit orders)...should be able to get some a tad under $24...

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