and add the stronger US Dollar along with a slowing China (and maybe an end to commodity supercycle?)...well, many reasons...The dollar has been a big factor.
(lived in Munchen in 70-71...very nice and clean...unlike places, like Detroit...hahaha)
got some at 22.99 ...and yeah, it can go lower...Just wanted it "on my screen" to follow - probably cost avg it if it drops 10% more, from here...It's become a dividend stock now...I'm also following BHP...similar stuff, but I have not bought any yet...Takes me back a long time, when I loved them. But with China probably slowing / end of supercycle in commodities (?) and strength in the Dollar, well, not good for these stocks...But when they get to a 5% divy, I began to get mildly interested.
shorts pay the dividend too, on shorted stocks...whatever (but I still am hopeful many of them will cut the divys...push the stock prices even lower...so I can get better prices to invest in...for the future...Once things calm down and oil rises to $80...well, the divy can be reinstated...and that'll jump the stock price right back up...I'd rather ones like ESV / NE / RIG drop the big divys...reduce debt...and/or have sufficient cash flows to get thru this period...Better things that money could be used for...even buying back shares.
Gonna ramble a bit...but...I heard an "expert" say that generally, the industry has to see about $17 over break-even, before they'll start new projects...Now, with the Saudis showing they can 'pull the rug out" at any time, I'd imagine the price above 'break even' is probably $20+, for new projects...and that's IF you can get a loan or float bonds (unless daddy XOM / CVX holds the cards on some projects/tracts). I suppose I'm referring more to shale projects and oil sands in Canada...but basically, whatever reduces the new projects & reduces supply...will ,eventually reduce the oil supply...or at least slow the trend...i.e. I think 'the above' should have 'an equilibrating effect' on oil prices within 3-6 months...and the depletion rates on existing projects will help...I'm no expert, for sure, but these oil prices today, should impact projects and definitely impact new money for projects and make the bar higher to start new projects...I'd imagine this will eventually bode well for oil prices - maybe get them back to around $80...12 months?...and woe to new projects unless they have a big 'break even' buffer...or the Saudis can crank it up and WHACK em' all over again...imo
yeah, I have to agree...I'd rather they do 'buybacks' and maybe reduce debt...or at least make sure they'll have the cash flows later...to remain viable...That's the key - because the ones that survive (if there is to be any shakeout?)...will do very well, pricewise, into the future. and I'd actually like to see ones like ESV / NE V/ RIG cut or suspend the dividends because I know it'll PUSH THE PRICES DOWN...and well, if you are accumulating , it's decent...i.e. I like lower prices to cost avg...Then later, they'll reinstitute divys when times are more secure...and the stock will shoot back up...and get a nice return % as well...i.e. I can wait for my gains later....for now, I'm not all that caring about divys and price rises....I like buying CHEAP.
I suppose I'd just tell you to "go it slow"...and just purchase small, initial positions in a few of them...I'm following ESV / NBR / NE / RIG / DO .... I think you'll have about 6 months to cost avg into them....perhaps if dividend cuts come in the future, that's a time when I look to add, on some big price pullbacks...or on earnings reports, if they disappoint...or on news of day rates softening/falling more...i.e. you'll have some negative news at times, and I'd add to positions then...or, just set target buys 10% below initial buy-ins, and cost avg that way, perhaps. GOOD LUCK...SPREAD THE BETS...TAKE IT SLOW
ummm...did grab a tad of NBR (10.75)...and opted for a tad of NE (at 15.14), although my 'target buy price' was to be around 13.90 for NE...but could not resist...Hey, it was a very small purchase !...forgive me. But yeah, I'll still wait for some divy cuts...to see final push(es) down, perhaps?...whatever...
my target 'buy' price was a tad under $14...but what the heck...and I am sorta waiting for dividend cuts to some, before getting more...But for today, on the big dip, I opted for a tad...but no promises. (unless Israel blows up Iran)
come on now...no crying over spilt milk...I admire anyone who can make good money, even if I'm on the other side of the trade...(and if he lives in SAN DIEGO...please take me out for lobster and Cabarnet !!). So, way to go, 'gasman'...but be sweet....hahaha....don't "krap" on us baggers too much...way to go !
An interesting day where the drillers I follow went down with the steep oil price drop...but then seemed to firm up and rise a bit?...Checked oil price - had not risen up. So, close to a bottom?...I'd have to say that if oil does continue to drop (BRENT $60?...WTI $57?)...we'd still see more weakness...and Gundlach had an interesting possibily he put out, for 2015...on oil and rates....bit scary, so I will not repeat it (smile)
Nope - ain't here to scream "buy"....I did have NBR hit a price target, but I did not have an order in...whatever...My favorites are DO / RIG / NE / ESV...BASICALLY, WOULD LIKE TO JUST WAIT TO SEE IF THEY EITHER HIT MY VERY LOW TARGETS...OR CUT THE DIVYS...
I've also been raising a bit of CASH from some other investments....just a feeling...but difficult to ever know how markets will perform, when you have a meddling / propping FED...Like WIZARD OF OZ stuff - fake, to some extent....(and China with a 7% growth rate...but a 3.5% electricity rise? they fudge numbers all the time /probably have a 3% growth rate, imo...I'd love to eventually be in mostly CASH...then "let it rip down"....I'm an old guy and this all seems so fake to me the last couple years....IS THE FED THE NEW ECONOMIC MODEL?....Long term?)
Sooo...maybe my screen is not broken - had the same issues...odd greenish color...hmmm.
Seriously, I'm partial to ESV / NE / RIG ...I'd like to add some more, but am going to wait for any possible dividend cuts or some odd days where they'd get 'whacked'...like yesterday, when ESV got hammered 7+%, so I added to it. I'm just trying to take my cost averaging slowly. The DO I own has gone up about 9-10% in 2 days...after the downgrades...uh huh...yeah...hmmm. (I'm glad I don't listen well)...but I'm not gonna get all 'giddy' about one, green day... I do look to add more to positions, in the future...We'll see. I think we'll have time. (oh, and let's get the big "O" to ban fracking, via executive order....as I do not own the 'frackers', so why not - will make the greenies all happy...not that I'm a greenie...but ban shale...smile)
The diff in yields is now 9.02% vs. 9.69% (B vs. C)...equates to around $1.50 in pricing differential...Short story: used to own AHT-D long ago...Company sold some D, off-the-shelf, to an entity at a discount...the "diff" on yield became 1% vs. the A ...8% vs. 9% ...maybe around a $2.20 diff on pricing...At the time, I was a bit "miffed"...took about 3 months for yields to equilibrate back to similar yields...but basically, at the time, the D was the better buy...and did outperform the A...
I tried to raise some cash today to buy more C...but finally gave up...could not get a decent price on the preferred I was trying to sell - sooooo....I'll just remember the AHT story...and be patient...and wait for the 'asinine' pricing / yield differentials to equilibrate back....zzzzzzzzzzz
I'm pretty sure this is now behind some of the accelerating drops to oil drillers and oil stocks...
Basically, some energy hedge funds / energy sector funds and ETF energy specific funds have been receiving redemptions....and they have to come up with CASH to redeem shares of the investors selling these stocks...So, in a sense, selling begets more selling...begets more selling...etc etc....until it exhausts itself...(and the continuing drop in oil only adds fuel to the selling fire....I'm seeing some pretty absurd pricing on energy stocks but that's not stopping them from dropping - even heard now that many CEO's of energy firms are stepping up to buy their depressed shares for their personal accounts...i.e. they feel it's also absurd...the pricing now.)
So, cannot say when this cycle of "forced sales" to raise cash for redemptions will continue...probably when oil bottoms out...But for now...quite interesting.
I remember in the past, how the oil countries amased great wealth...and reinvested it into real estate, stocks, etc etc...Call it "petrodollars"...The higher oil went, the more money was sloshing around, needing a 'home"...needing to be put somewhere...to be invested. So, in that sense, higher oil prices / more oil revenues went into propping up real estate, stocks, etc etc...So, the question is : if oil has dropped 40% and perhaps remains weak...what impact will it have on other asset prices...real estate , stocks, etc...? i.e. less "petrodollars" to be pushed into other assets, is dropping...I have to think it will have some impact on other assets & asset prices....unless of course, the Central Banks wanna pick up the slack....hahahah...again, and keep asset PRICES propped up !!
YEAH, he has a sizeable number of shares...but I read an article (guru investers?),...and it sated that his position was only 2.5% of Carl's total portfolio...so, I have to wonder if he's all that "hurt" by the drop...or really cares...Besides, what can he do? Not Transocean's fault that oil dropped 40%...
As for the Saudis, if I were them, I'd actually increase production and push oil to $40...and basically destroy some of these over-leveraged shale companies...wipe them out, along with any offshore lil' players with bad balance sheets....And make it clear that they'll 'pull the rug out' from under the oil price whenever they feel like it...i.e. will make oil companies, shale drillers, etc think twice, even if they can have break even costs at 50-60-70...i.e even if oil could rise back to $80, well, will the Saudis push it down to $40 again, when they feel threatened...SO, THAT'S WHAT I'D DO IF I WERE THE SAUDIS...SEND A BIG MESSAGE !...unless you can make a buck at $40/bbl...don't even think about shale drilling - cause' we can crush you at any time.
TRUE...TRUE...TRUE...Stocks are amazing...and sometimes NOT logical...and can bite you hard for so long, until you're worn out...I sorta think we're about there now...(smile)...I'm past being amazed...or upset, or angry, or frustrated....Basically, non-caring, now...most carnage probably done...let the big shorts push it where they wanna go...and I'll just cost avg my positions, at various times...But yeah, a part of me actually wants one or 2 more decent pushes lower...on some news...oil price drops , dollar strength , Saudi manipulations...revenue announcements and misses, if they come...etc etc...So yeah, I do want to add to my small initial positions a couple more times...Sorta have mid-2015 in mind, to have the full amount of money allocated, into this sector ....We'll see if I get that chance?
yep...good luck....but try to cost avg slowly, if the opportunity comes later...We could / should see times where the big dips can occur...on neg news, rising dollar, lower oil prices, etc...So, be careful...but yeah, I have 9 of them to follow...just to keep them on the computer screen - if they bleed lower, fine...At some point, I'll cost avg them, if the opportunity arises...(and part of me hopes they can get bashed a bit more...cause I'd like to add to positions at even lower prices...for the future...yeah, odd I know...but used to cost avg'ing, like back in 2009, with REITS...Was difficult / painful ...and lots of nasty talk on the message boards...somehow, people love to call others 'names'...sorta nasty / very childish & speaks poorly of their upbringing / poor reflection on parents...I just figure they're Democrats...love to demonize...Like water off a duck's back...I just focus on my own life) GOOD LUCK BOTH LONGS & SHORTS
good luck...maybe cost avg a bit, over time...but who knows where the bottom is...or that maybe we've seen it already?...I'm sorta waiting to see if divys are cut on some of them - might get another leg down on such news - but no idea what'll happen, going forward....I actually spread some bets among 9 drillers...very small , entry level bets...when / if they drop more, on any bad news or divvy cuts, or...or...well, I'll look to cost avg them....I figure I could/should have time to watch them...and not get too antsy to pull the trigger for awhile - still wanna see if the Saudis are gonna try pushing oil down a bit more (they are selling oil under the market price now..I get the idea they wanna keep the "boot on the neck" of producers until they break up some of the competitors)