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iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped Message Board

h5n1eric 220 posts  |  Last Activity: 32 minutes ago Member since: Jan 15, 2009
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  • Reply to

    X-div today

    by sbrown101750 Oct 30, 2014 10:41 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Oct 31, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    Quick question - I saw that RIG was a SWISS located company...So, do the SWISS take some divy withholding (foreign tax), off the top , before you get the dividend?...i.e. that 10% divvy looks great...just wondering tho, about any tax withholding via the foreign country. Thanks for a reply.

  • to compliment the common shares I got at avg price of 5.16 ...divys were good...but I'm primarily a 'preferred'/fixed income type, now (old guy)...CASH FLOWS....The C, around 23.70 yields around 9.10%...pretty decent....I'd been hitting on LTS-A and NRF-E...but those 2 zoomed upwards, so for now, I'm getting a new position in RSO-C ...have to jack my divys back somewhere ! good luck to all.

  • Reply to

    going for some RSO-C...

    by h5n1eric Nov 3, 2014 1:47 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 4, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    yeah...In the past, I was a contrarian / value investor...and this is not one of those times. So, for now, I just park the money in various 'preferreds'...That RSO-C looks quite decent, and better yield over the A&B ...I'll get some more dividend payouts in mid-NOV...hopefully, IT'LL STAY DOWN HERE...or maybe lower - fine with me...And once I buy them, I have no issues with them going even lower on price - I just add more as my dividends pile up...cost avg...get better yields on lower prices.
    I suppose I'd tell young investors to become "dividend aristocrat" investors...but today, with stocks high, the yields are puny...SO, I tell my young son to wait for "blood in the streets"...I drool during recessions - so many gems pop up...BUT NOT TODAY...But there are areas where stocks have been bashed...oil service sector is one...Like RIG perhaps - but I still seem to be drawn to 'preferreds' and the FIXED payouts, for now...CASH FLOWS....At my age, that's what I desire - but if we do get "bad times" again, ala 2002 & 2009 ...well, yeah, I'll put the guns back on...haha...and play one more time.

  • Reply to

    going for some RSO-C...

    by h5n1eric Nov 3, 2014 1:47 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 4, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    heck...when I saw the bid/ask on the RSO-C was at 23.50-23.55 ...well, could not pass it up ...So, opted to sell off a tad of my LTS-A at 25.04 (7.99% yield)...and get some more RSO-C 9.16% yield at 23.55)...The C is selling around a 3-4% discount to the A&B, based upon the yield...hahaha...whatever...When I see the "diff" spread among those preferreds, well, I'll go with the darned C...and yeah, I'll still have until mid-NOV to get more money to put in....I think the 52 week low on the C was 23.50...so, hit that today, again...whatever...I don't ask why...I just buy...

  • so...ummm...actually got a tad...a small tad....I'm just a fan of PAIN, I suppose...I'll cost avg it quarterly...Just my "plaything"...Easier than driving the 6 hours to VEGAS...Just some funny money...I'd expect it to go lower...
    Huge short position now...all analysts hate it...I never hold my breath on 'takeovers', but heck, at 0.57x book and dropping...well...but I'll not assume that...Just gonna invest in PAIN....ain't got nuttin' positive to add...sorry

  • Reply to

    What does "Green" look like again?

    by ggray1956 Nov 19, 2014 1:25 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 19, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    The key word seems to be "everyone"...as in, 'everyone' hates it...Not that this story parallels RIG, but I remember when everyone seemed to hate WAG...and then Cramer came on TV right before the open, and attacked it some more....Dropped 20 cents on the open, to around $27.60...then 'never looked back'...up up and away...to $75 at one point ( I bought a ton...sold too early tho..but a nice profit)...Was not much more to say, after Cramer threw 'the kitchen sink' at it...That guy is amazing...a real "sunny day" investor...I remember buying up REITS at 10 cents on the dollar, in 2009...people yelling "bk"...and ol' Cramer stayed away - only to miss on 500%+ returns on many of them....BUY IN THE WORST OF TIMES - hmmm...now who says that?...But yeah, I don't like RIG now...nor did I feel too comfortable buying DDR / CBL / etc etc, when they were utterly bashed & I was down for awhile, as I added to them....and "everyone" hated them....hmmmm....I'll just cost avg from here, every 3 months...see what happens - no promises...

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 19, 2014 9:31 PM Flag

    Well, ummm...doubtful...but good luck...But I'd imagine you could wait until 2015 / Jan, to check it out again...You might even be seeing some END-YR TAX SELLING, to boot...So, wait a bit (although I did grab a tad today...but just a very small position...to watch...bored.

  • Reply to

    cant say when

    by keoo2 Nov 20, 2014 10:04 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 20, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    My 2 cents...just cost avg it, over time (down here)...I bought some yesterday...and will either buy quarterly...or maybe just pick a %age (drop) to add to the small position, over time. People have a very short time horizon when 'investing' , it seems... I think you could see a double or triple in 2,3,4 years ...but people seem impatient. Yet, if you asked investors "would they take a 200% return in 2-3 years", maybe then they'd become more 'patient'.... I generally have to wait for recessions to find anything interesting, to invest in...but occasionally, you can find sectors/stocks that sell in recession territory, within a good market. My last gem was WAG...Got hammered down by Cramer, et al.....now that was an easy one, imo....great sector...short term issues for WAG...This sector (and stocks like RIG) are not as easy as WAG was...More like what occurred within the 'bulk shippers', with oversupply ...and reduced demand..., so I'd expect this 'play' could take longer...maybe a year or more to see the light...But does appear that much of the bad news (and future expectations of even more bad news) have been discounted somewhat....Bottom line: not saying this is going to be a quick turnaround - so, that's why I'd slowly cost avg RIG et al...and have a 1-3 yr timeframe ...if you can do that, I think you'll be rewarded...but few have that sort of patience....Good luck to both longs and shorts

  • Reply to

    cant say when

    by keoo2 Nov 20, 2014 10:04 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 20, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    My old, favorite quote used to be "I'd buy a dung factory in India, if the valuations were decent"...I'll likely add to positions / buy others on a quarterly basis...I have dividends pile up from 'preferred stocks' I own, so seems like a prudent way to inch into this sector - i.e. checked out 2015 estimates on revenues, etc...we should see lower revenues and maybe even some divy cuts, perhaps shaking more investors out...and pulling in more "shorts" (actually, I like SHORTS...They can get prices down quickly...to where I wanna be, basically...much like what happened in the REITS, back in 2009...relentless hammering...cheap prices...So, they do me a favor). I think we'll have time in 2015, to HUNT around...and just be patient....If RIG gets hammered more by mid FEB, I'll add to it...Also looking at some others, like ESV...Won't do much good to post in here daily - just keep me in mind, 44....Could be fun...2015 will be 'interesting', I'd imagine..."into the storm"

  • Reply to

    How low can we go....

    by connerd76 Nov 19, 2014 11:01 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 20, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    hahaha....man, did he ever miss on WAG...MISSED 200%...His lil' story yesterday was a bit off....he said he dissed it at 29...bs...it was at 27.60 or so, when he krapped on it...on CNBC...and that was the BUY SIGNAL (or when RAD was at 99 cents...I got greedy and bid 98...never filled....went to $7...then Cramer liked it...then pulled back to $5.50...CRAMER can make you poor, VERY FAST!...But he's become a good contrarian indicator).... But seriously, I hope the shorts et al can bang this sector down even more...Sure, not a wonderful thing for old holders...but I want to cost avg lower....No guarantees tho...Have all of 2015 perhaps, to find some deals -and I'll be hopeful the shorts will keep banging away !!

  • Reply to

    How high can we go

    by wsdwsd Nov 20, 2014 12:17 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 20, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    $50...2 years...I'd take that....just a guess tho...don't get all upset, people...I like to be conservative.

  • Reply to

    How high can we go

    by wsdwsd Nov 20, 2014 12:17 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 20, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    when CRAMER comes on CNBC and super trashes it...then start buying...probably a 95% chance it'll be a good bet....COST AVG !

  • I love the shorts...they do me a favor...I want the price to go lower, to add more...they provide that ! They can eat their lobster now...they deserve it...I'll get mine in 2016-2017 (unless a recession comes...hmm). But for now, yeah, love the shorts / love the analysts that downgrade daily / love the lowered revenue estimates / love divy cuts if they come...love anything that drives prices even lower, in 2015....assuming you want to build positions...and have a 2-3 yr timeframe....and can take Prilosec....(someone said $20...hope so...I even saw one analyst that has a $16 price target...give that to me @!!...MORE PAIN, THE BETTER...FOR THE FUTURE...THE FUTURE.

  • Reply to

    fast money claims

    by keoo2 Nov 20, 2014 12:33 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 20, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    perfect...i.e. they'll pop up a bit...then go lower...those clowns ! I want LOWER for awhile more...until mid-late 2015 would be fine - let me get my positions.

  • Reply to

    RSOPRB

    by tulsadevlin Nov 21, 2014 12:23 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 25, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    ahhh...who knows...I've seen it before, tho...up-down-up-down...They'll go x divvy at end-DEC...I

  • Reply to

    RSOPRB

    by tulsadevlin Nov 21, 2014 12:23 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 25, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    That was my suspicion...i.e. that there may be some preferreds "on the shelf" that they'd choose to sell at times - but I just don't sweat it...I just get the divys and plow em' into other things...(getting a bit interested in the very depressed oil drillers...should have some poor 2015 numbers...so, I'm thinking about cost averaging into some, like RIG / ESV...Yeah, they'll likely go lower and lower - but I just like cost avg'ing 'recession priced' stocks...and then hold em' longer term....things always change...just a game)

  • No, I don't like the SDRL valuations, even at today's price...but I did opt to start small positions in some others, on the good "whacking" today...just to watch em' on the computer screen...and very likely get to cost avg em' at 10% drops from my buy-ins...Heck, I have no idea where bottoms are, so I do mini-buys along the way - reminds me of the REITS back in 2009....had to watch those shares drop too, while I continued to add. Not easy on the stomach...Anyway...opted for tads of NBR / ESV / NE / and a tad more RIG....WONDER IF THERE'S ANY END-YR TAX SELLING GOING ON, TOO?...Anyway, not for the faint of heart, or short term investors...could be a year before things shake out...and if a world recession comes, maybe have to wait even longer...but I enjoy these "games"...(but yes, I'd still expect more downside moves...as other trim / cut divys later)

  • Reply to

    Will RIG Cut or Eliminate the Divi?

    by tarulestheday Nov 26, 2014 1:39 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 26, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    I'd say it's very likely almost all will either cut or suspend their divys during this period they're going thru...I saw that NADL suspended their divvy today as well as SDRL....Oh, here's an email to some friends...sums it up
    a lot of these stocks that attracted dividend hunters with their huge dividend %ages (as the prices dropped...pushing up yields to unsustainable, stupid levels, imo) are the ones getting hit hardest, like SDRL / NADL...And the shorts know it's a matter of time before all of them probably cut the dividends, except for those that have very low dividends, like SLB / HAL...with good "payout ratios" under 100%

    Basically, with today's announcements by SDRL / NADL to suspend dividends, most other drillers are falling by the amount of the % dividends they pay...so, some of the "future" seems to be in the process of 'discounting" the probable divvy cuts (to come)....Shorts are having a field day, with the FEAR of mom-pop investors.... running for the hills.

    Now the question will be - will oil stay very depressed for a long time? Some are now saying oil will be depressed for a decade...hmmmm...Always get some crazy forecasts when the fear rises...

    I'd just grab a handful of the drillers...to diversify...see if there's any bk's or more consolidations?.... Reminds me of 2009, when REITS were selling at 10-40 cents on the dollar...fear of inability to cover debt servicing, etc etc....If you had the guts back then, you saw 500% profits off the bottom...even more, in some cases....I remember having about 23 different REITS...really spread the bets, knowing some could go "bk"...but if any survived, they'd have big gains...and cover many 100% bk losses...Funny thing - I can only think of one REIT that opted for bk....so, was not as bad as the "bk screamers" felt it would be...

    But yeah...the oil services/drillers sector has to be the WORST of this year...and 2015 should be hell, too...But just like back in 2009, I just diversify...grab some "tads"...maybe cost avg later...and wait....If oil drops to $50-60...ouch...But some will survive...and maybe...maybe some of mine will get gobbled up, on valuations...fun game...beats the boredom.

  • Reply to

    20 years Low...

    by bensadri Nov 26, 2014 1:40 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Nov 26, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    buy when others are fearful? hahaha...we can all sue Buffett, if we lose...I have to wonder if we'll see WILBUR ROSS coming soon?...I can say it'll be interesting, if nothing else...Be happy when Jan comes - see just how much of this was "short window dressing" for hedge funds trying to boost their 2014 gains...play catch-up...and esp how much, if any, is end-yr tax selling...But no 2 ways about it - the sector looks bleak, even thru 2015, so they say...with much reduced earnings projections and likely divy cuts...I'd say we're seeing the "discounting" now... probably more to come - so, don't throw all the money in at one time....I'll just cost avg on 10% drops...cause' I have no idea where bottoms are...same as the REITS back in 2009...I just scattered the bets...little in each...and avg'd em...and waited 2 years.

REM
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