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TORM A/S Message Board

h5n1eric 148 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 9:51 PM Member since: Jan 15, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Short 24% of float they....

    by jackma100 Dec 19, 2014 9:39 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 19, 2014 9:51 PM Flag

    Pretty much the way I view my small holdings in about 5 "rig stocks"...If they do cut the dividend...and/or if oil does get into the $40's to cause more panic...then I'd add 'on the fear'...I'd just add small amts to current small positions....But if they don't cut the divys on them, then I just hold on to what I have. (personally, I'd like to see oil drop into the $40's area....and maybe hold until summer...that ought to do the trick, on shale projects...and just let "depletion rates" take their toll on production of existing wells....North Sea oil will get killed too, with their high costs of production...and forget Arctic drilling...need $100 oil, I hear) This may have a long while to play out, so don't get too exicted...save your energy...and have some dry powder, as you say.

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 19, 2014 12:38 AM Flag

    If they did ever cut / suspend the divy, then I'd look to add more, on the drop....Not saying they will, but IF,...and then you get the shares ultra cheap(er)...and wait a year or so, to have them reinstitute the divy, in some form...and the stock would bounce back....(and basically, your lower price would magnify any divys going foreward, again...Same thing happened to REITS in 2009...CBL / DDR...and later, they raised the divys back up...If you got those cheap, the divys became a large % yield....just had to be patient)...Also, when NADL / SDRL suspended the dividends, the whole sector plunged that day, so some of that angst is probably priced in...My thought was to wait for $40-45 oil to add to positions - but I'd also look at any divy cuts in some of them, to add...I doubt we'll see those low oil prices...but, never know.

  • Reply to

    quite impressive, actually

    by h5n1eric Dec 18, 2014 4:06 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 18, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    if you'd have told me that oil would plunge this much today, and with huge pops yesterday in the stocks, I'd have bet they'd all be back down again 1-5% ...so, yeah...sorta stunned actually....Only the big boys know what's going on....For me, I just grabbed some stocks weeks ago...spread the bets...then put em' away...Would be best to just follow oil - see where we are in DEC 2015...If oil is back up nicely, then check out the prices...I go into computer to check my preferred stocks...so, I do get to see the 'rigs' prices...but you could go loco sweating things, daily....I'm glad I just have a little money in them...It was just a game for me...to catch knives (was bored) - but actually, I can see them as being potential divy payers in the future, to go with my 'cash flow' preferred stocks.

  • Reply to

    Three concerns here still

    by sd1440 Dec 16, 2014 6:20 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 18, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    well...then you can SHORT it...and have no more concerns///

  • Reply to

    quite impressive, actually

    by h5n1eric Dec 18, 2014 4:06 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 18, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    hmmmmmmmm....yep....get oil lower now...to go higher, later...gotta crush some SHALE...should see an impact by June, on output ...onshore permits drying up...new loans/credit drying up...so, supply will go flat / fall a bit...(love what Russia is going thru....)

  • Given that we had huge gains in the rigs yesterday...and then had a 'crash' back down in oil prices today...well, the 'rigs' had every reason to pull back.... A LOT. But all the ones I hold were all green today...from RIG up 0.27%...to ESV up 5.24%
    That's quite impressive....looks like a decent bottoming for them...yeah, they'll go up-and-down over time...but was sorta amazed today...
    And like I said, who'd hold RIG as a short, thru all of 2015, and have to pay the huge dividend...I calculated the break even would be around $15 ...then the shorts begin to make money...That is a lousy bet...imo

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 18, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    I was still looking for around $20...by mid-late January,... assuming oil stays where it is...I think we'll get that 'post tax selling' pop...seen it before in other bashed stocks.

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 18, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Yeah, that was a good article...So, basically, we'll see that 17% dividend thru 2015...nice "buffer" for any stock downside action...And...ummm...I suppose the shorts had better expect at least a stock price downside of greater than 17% on their 'shorts" (from here)...because they'll have to pay the 17% divys on the short positions...Doesn't seem like a decent bet here, to be short...have a 17% hole to cover...imo

  • "Approximately half the $40 per barrel decline in crude since the summer can be attributed to rising production. Since June, the U.S. and Libya alone have increased production by 1.2 million barrels per day, equivalent to 1.3% of global crude oil supply. These new supplies have come on line at a time when oil demand has slowed. The International Energy Agency has cut its forecast for global demand in 2015 by 700,000 barrels per day. About 30% of the decline in oil prices can be attributed to weaker than expected demand.

    Lafakis also went after the currency impact and the rising supply with formal figures in the Moody’s Analytics report. He said:

    The rising U.S. dollar is the third major reason why oil prices have fallen so much so fast. Since May, the U.S. dollar has appreciated by 13%, accounting for 15% of the drop in oil prices. Reductions in geopolitical risk explain the remaining 5% of the decline… Rising global supply has been the principal factor pushing oil prices lower, and no country has contributed more to the glut than the U.S. According to the IEA, the U.S. has surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia in oil production when condensate and natural gas liquids are included. The U.S. shale boom has been underpinned by high oil prices, abundant financing, and steady productivity growth.

    So, is a bottom coming closer to fruition? Maybe. Moody’s Analytics has lowered its oil price forecast due to the reasons stated above. Still, prices are still expected to trend higher in 2015 — with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude projected to average $85 per barrel and Brent crude closer to $90 around this time next year. The reason: lower prices will reduce investment in exploration and production while encouraging greater consumption, eventually boosting prices. In short, lower prices help cure lower prices."

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 17, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    I don't hate Gasman...it's shorts like him that drive prices lower, so others can get a bargain price...So, in that sense, they provide better prices - assuming you are a new / recent buyer...So, the swede-dane (me) sorta respects him. (if "If's and But's" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas).

  • Reply to

    grrr...RSO B vs. C....laughable

    by h5n1eric Dec 9, 2014 10:58 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 17, 2014 6:19 PM Flag

    B yield at 8.72% / C at 9.54% ....still amazing....equates to about an 8% pricing differential...company still bleeding new shares into the market?...cannot last forever. I'll definitely take the C

  • Reply to

    DRILLERS WAY UP TODAY

    by rpal3 Dec 17, 2014 11:35 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 17, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    I mean...there's only so much meat on the carcass...Once shorts feasted, well...how much meat to the downside was left? % short positins / days-to-cover ratios...got pretty wild/negative...fear....Can't get too greedy - shorts did ultra well....don't hold it against em', as they create good buying ops for those who want discounts...And...well...I'd imagine any recent shorts that used margin, have been getting calls from brokers, too? Please add more money to your acct?...whatever....I doubt if there was any of that for longs recently...they'd all been wiped out or gave up positions when margin calls came...GOOD PRETTY BLOODY, FOR SURE...But eventually, pendulums swing....and swing...Should still remain somewhat volatile - we'll have our ups-and-downs....not gonna be straight up...But yeah, a fun day.

  • Reply to

    18 $

    by nysetalk Dec 17, 2014 10:40 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 17, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    once tax loss selling guys come back in Jan...might see $20...but it'll be what it'll be...these are LONG TERM positions...running out years....not some short term thing, for me...

  • Reply to

    Short squeeze

    by rpal3 Dec 16, 2014 10:59 AM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 17, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    yeah...I think you got some nervous longs bail out at yesterday's tops...weak holders that maybe wanted to cut positions...and reduce their tummy aches...could not blame em'...been there before....So, retraced back up to yesterday's tops and beyond....and some shorts are probably taking their riches they made - some calling it a day...they did well. But these got so oversold. I'll still hold to my cost avg idea - I'll buy more if oil goes to $40-45 ...If things just stabilize here, then I'll just 'have what I have'...SDRL looking good today...glad I added to that one a few days ago....I'm almost even on my holdings now...so, that's nice....Might take awhile for these to really recover...I suppose 2015-2016 could be challenging...but many have contracts running thru this time period...so, hope that 2017 and beyond, brings better oil prices...(but yeah, I'd not be unhappy seeing oil drop more - to put some of those fracking wildcatters out of biz...I'm sure the liquidity dried up for more money in that sector...Just need to slow down the fracking oil...get back to supply/demand balance...but also heard that Russia will slow down on drilling plans too...and they have a hard time raising money as well...fine...fine.

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 17, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    "General Electric (NYSE:GE) announced Tuesday it will buy subsea drilling technology from Oceaneering International (NYSE:OII) as oil prices keep plunging.............."

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 17, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    General Electric (NYSE:GE) announced Tuesday it will buy subsea drilling technology from Oceaneering International (NYSE:OII) as oil prices keep plunging.

  • Reply to

    Funds Added To Transocean Positions (Forbes)

    by rpal3 Dec 16, 2014 7:26 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 17, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    "General Electric (NYSE:GE) announced Tuesday it will buy subsea drilling technology from Oceaneering International (NYSE:OII) as oil prices keep plunging."

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 16, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    (excerpt)..."Another key difference for deep “water projects is their longer-term investment lifecycle. In the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) for example, where a company's investment in a typical project may be US$1 billion or more, much or all of the investment will be committed and spent around five years before any returns are seen. The critical point for such projects is not the price of oil now, but its anticipated price in the future and where deferral in the short term may result in missed gains later.

    “From a decision-making perspective, this means the risk lies in the expected price of oil in 2020. As a result, projects currently underway are less likely to be stopped. This is in contrast to onshore unconventional shale investment where decisions are often much more short term,” says George.

    “Shale drilling can be cut back or ramped up in fairly short order to accommodate the market conditions, resulting in more rapid response to fluctuating oil price.”

    At the end of October 2014 GCA posted an article looking at the potential impact of US$80 per barrel on activity in unconventional shale oil plays in the United States. The article indicated that, using the “sweet spot” volatile oil window of the Eagle Ford as an example, activity was still profitable at that price although more fringe areas (and other basins with pricing disadvantages) might be more challenged. However, even the sweet spots in the Eagle Ford oil window started to look challenged at US$70 per barrel.

    Co-authors Cecilia Jing Cui and Neil Abdalla point out that strong offshore GoM projects can still be viable down to US$60 per barrel. Economic rationality would suggest that where the opportunity exists, onshore shale spending would be a more appropriate short-term target for capital deferral because operating flexibility allows any adjustments made there to be reversed in equally quick order.

    Bob George states, “Although pain is likely for areas like the offshore Gulf of Mexico in 2015, it should be much better placed to weather the storm of depressed oil prices in the short term than the US onshore unconventionals industry.”

  • Reply to

    all my drillers way up, after hours...

    by h5n1eric Dec 16, 2014 7:13 PM
    h5n1eric h5n1eric Dec 16, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    and yeah...I sorta want oil to go to $40-45...really slow down fracking...take some supply off market (heck - let's just keep it in the ground for later use...Strategic oil reserve along with nat gas and coal...we've got a lot)
    i.e if you want oil to go higher, you first need to take it a lot lower, imo

    "It’s been said the real real aim of the United Arab Emirates and other comfortably bankrolled oil producing states led by Saudi Arabia is to drive the U.S. fracking sector out of business — and badly hurt Iran while they are at it. But if that’s the case, they are probably in for a long wait, said Jaffe. With advances in drilling techniques, lower costs of production and overall oil demand declining in Western economies, “Middle East producers are going to have to stomach a pretty low price for their oil to stay competitive,” she said.

    Still, there has been some blowback in Texas and North Dakota, the centers of the U.S. fracking boom. Applications for new well permits dropped by nearly half in November, the number of rigs has fallen and ConocoPhillips said Monday that it will delay drilling in parts of the areas. The Financial Times reported Monday that San Francisco’s Wells Fargo faces potential losses on a joint $850 million loan with Barclays to finance a merger of two oil companies in the area."

  • probably means nothing...day to day stuff...maybe a few are 'covering' some positions, in the cover of darkness?...whatever...but would be nice to continue to move up....But I think we'll have times to grab cheaper shares, perhaps, in 2015...But yeah, I'll root for the longs...they do deserve some gains, after what they have endured...and what I've endured. But after today, I'm only down maybe 5-10% on positions...Generally, when cost avg'ing falling knives (reits/2009), I'm worse than that...we'll see how it goes in Q1 / 2015.

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