You don't see how I would know any of this for the same reason you don't understand PPC: because you're a retail investor who is woefully unqualified for making well-reasoned self-directed stock picks. My brother's a doctor, and brilliant, but he generally makes unspectacular stock investment decisions because he has the same limited understanding that you do. Actually, he was a GOGO long at the same time that I was short; fortunately, I was able to convince him to dump his shares when it was around 20. I'm not going to take out anyone's spleen, or design a building; a doctor or architect shouldn't think that they're going to succeed in stock-picking without my combination of top-tiered education, experience, and intelligence. If you fail to accept this reality, you'll continue to burn at the feet of people like me.
You were so confident last year, bashing the supposed ignorance of shorts, while extolling the virtues of Gogo's lousy tech. How's that brilliant insight of yours working out for you now, loser?
This is what I wrote last summer:
"Obsolescence is fast approaching. Their Virgin business is dying. ALL of their business is dying. Airlines are figuring out how to do it better without Gogo.
It's going to keep falling; low-teens by end of year, and single digits in 2016."
I see a lot of you ignorant, arrogant longs stuck around for the inevitable crash. Good, you deserve it. Enjoy your suffering; I know I will.
You're looking at all the wrong things. P/E-based valuation analysis and extrapolating a quarter out to a full year's potential performance are meaningless exercises. And that's especially the case for Pilgrim's, which operates in a volatile pricing environment with material D&A/CapEx dynamics. And it wasn't "terrible performance." Relative to the exogenous factors in play, it was outstanding performance, led by a quality management team. Those who can't do advanced valuation work with this company shouldn't bother with it.
And to add to my comment, my attempts to increase my position, with orders as low as 19, were successful. Far too early to tell, of course, but it seems like the right decision.
If you went through all of the earnings materials, and you know what to look for, you should find, as I have, that the risk-reward ratio is great at these levels, and especially below 20.
Prices and cutout values were really in the tank last quarter, and a lot of other negative issues in the business environment got in the way. The company was certainly tested, and it still managed to generate a fair amount of free cash flow.
So far this quarter, trends in prices and feed look outstanding, as the former have risen aggressively, and inventories with respect to the latter are very high. If these trends persist, then Q1 2016 results have the potential to be nothing short of phenomenal.
Down 50% from the creation of this subject... and STILL overvalued.
Expect the stock to be cut in half again this year, and fall down to the teens.
Sentiment: Strong Sell