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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

h8filledstr8shooter 57 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2015 1:02 PM Member since: Jul 25, 2006
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  • Reply to

    PPC Shorts are Played Out

    by wagontrainleaving Aug 21, 2015 11:47 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 26, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    There's only one way to invest in this market, and that is for the long term, due to the endless supply of severely discounted stocks of cash-rich companies that are growing, buying their own shares on the cheap, or both.

    Not only PPC, but AA, AAPL, AXP, BBBY, BBY, CAT, CMPR, DDS, DFS, EMC, GILD, ICON, INTC, IP, KSS, MU, NTAP, NVDA, SNDK, STX, T, TCK, TDC, TPUB, VZ, XRX... and so much more. Buying these kind of stocks is how the Buffetts of the world got incredibly wealthy, and why technically-driven traders have, and ALWAYS will underperform over any 5+-year period.

    For the long-term value investor who can stomach the near-term bull$#%$ market dislocation, this is an undeniably golden opportunity.

  • Reply to

    PPC Shorts are Played Out

    by wagontrainleaving Aug 21, 2015 11:47 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 25, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    Sanderson does not have Pilgrim's scale, nor is at as nimble or, the put it bluntly, as well run. Pilgrim's management has truly improved the operational effectiveness well beyond its prior iteration. To clump these two together is yet another example of the market's shortsightedness.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    leon cooperman omega advisors

    by kbkhkmartz Aug 19, 2015 11:15 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 19, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    Yeah... I suspected as much. ;)

    And an addendum to my "interview": Cooperman was on the most recent SunEdison earnings call, almost pathetically begging the execs to provide a bullish signal to the market (e.g. announce a buyback) that it would immediately cease and reverse the precipitous decline that SUNE (I was short; recently closed) has deservedly been suffering. He and his team are desperate and lost; I kind of suspect that this is per the insider trading inquiry, which has curbed his ability to get some of that delicious "material nonpublic information" that's made his job easy over much of his career.

  • Reply to

    leon cooperman omega advisors

    by kbkhkmartz Aug 19, 2015 11:15 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 19, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    Oh, you mean the same Leon Cooperman who was DOWN 3% in 2014?
    The same Leon Cooperman who overweighted shale producers while oil was tanking?
    The same Leon Cooperman that's watching one of his key holdings, SunEdison, implode under a mountain of debt?
    The same Leon Cooperman who's consistently been on the wrong side of distressed companies, like Caesars and SandRidge?

    Is that the same Leon Cooperman that's giving you comfort? Tsk tsk...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 19, 2015 9:09 AM Flag

    Heh - all that money you've lost is agitating you, isn't it? Well, it's going to get worse, and you're going to become more depressed. The walls are closing in on you... prepare for catastrophe... get the rope... get the rope.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 18, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    Obsolescence is fast approaching. Their Virgin business is dying. ALL of their business is dying. Airlines are figuring out how to do it better without Gogo.
    It's going to keep falling; low-teens by end of year, and single digits in 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    CORN hit 52wk low leg down coming

    by the_entitled Aug 12, 2015 12:12 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 12, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    The news couldn't have been better.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 12, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    Okay... if we don't start running to 30 now, there's something wrong.
    Looking forward to seeing those Q3 margins.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 11, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    All signs point to feed inputs staying low for awhile. Furthermore, reports of bird flu-related quarantines being lifted are trickling in at an increasing rate.
    I simply wanted to show that even with a somewhat cautious outlook on Pilgrim's expenses, the stock seems grossly mispriced.

  • Weighted average cost of capital of 9%, which is too high.
    Then assume free cash flow will decline by 10% over the next 12 months, after which it will maintain an anemic 0% growth rate.
    Reduce book value to $1 billion, maintain share count at 260 million, maintain historical tax rate and other baseline assumptions.

    Stock price per these inputs? Exactly $45.00, not a penny more or less.

    So even with these highly conservative assumptions, PPC is severely undervalued; it's basically priced for a catastrophic industry episode, e.g. a massive supply-demand shift in corn and/or soybean, causing feed costs to skyrocket.

    But I think it has less to do with this, and more to do with a massive dislocation in the market with respect to value and growth stocks, coupled with a little manipulation. Once markets correct, and money flows back into the cheaply priced value universe, PPC will hopefully be one of the beneficiaries, and the stock will move closer to where it rationally belongs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 7, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    Still laughing, you fool?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 7, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    We're just getting started, you bums.

    That small miss was only the beginning of long-term turmoil for Gogo. It's only going to get worse: lost contracts, product criticism, lagging tech, downward revisions on guidance. Ultimately, it will be clear to everyone that the company will be one of the losers in the inflight internet space, and the sell-off will be devastating. Get out now, or you'll be in serious trouble.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 7, 2015 9:23 AM Flag

    If Peanuts is a hit, then a more resource-heavy media company might be able to justify $2 billion, since they can use those aforementioned resources to more successfully leverage that success, and even find a way to better monetize Strawberry Shortcake.

    However, that's currently an unrealistic, if not irrational thought to have. Wait until the company gives some assurances that the situation is far better than the stock price would indicate (if it actually is!) before raising your hopes.

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 7, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    It might be because the company materially missed estimates, and after this fact was brought to the board, they got tired of Cole over-promising and under-delivering, knowing that his poor leadership over the past year is what drove the stock below $30. They got the results, and then had some protracted pre-earnings release discussions regarding the seriousness of the situation. Hence the delay of the earnings release (timing has always been last week of July/first week of August). So they made the decision, discussed with everyone the best course of action, and came up with this idea, versus announcing concurrent with the release.

    Sadly, that's the optimistic scenario.

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Aug 6, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    Via the Harvard Marvel case study. He is a remarkable, brilliant man who is known as a turnaround specialist. At 71, he is getting up there, but some of the best executive talent out there is around his age (70 really is the new 60). A little surprised by the selloff, but I suppose I can't fault some investors for being fatigued by, and fed up with the management turnover, especially if you don't have downside protection, which I believe is essential in light of the uncertainty surrounding the stock.

    Look at the new CEO/CFO - former Marvel and Penske guys. Now David Jones has some credible lead talent with whom to work. Almost a surreal upgrade at the top.

    This is an upgrade in business ethics, performance forecasting, financial management... pretty much everywhere. If the company can start rebuilding trust, its investors will be very richly rewarded for the risk that they've taken. Hopefully next week's earnings call will be the first step on that road.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hello is anybody home?.

    by kenman34243 Aug 6, 2015 4:27 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 6, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    You're looking at the scenario very myopically, if not with complete ignorance and a lack of corporate finance education Per their free cash flow history, servicing their debt obligations is a piece of cake.

    If you REALLY want to make an honest bear case for Iconix, you'd be better off arguing that the weakness of their license portfolio, coupled with execution risks, will facilitate further declines, and preclude future share repurchases. However, to put debt level and cash on hand in vacuum, and cite this as a reason that they can't buy back their own share is completely silly.

    If Iconix can consistently and organically generate $150+ million in FCF, they can both pay down debt AND buy back 5% of their shares a year with little difficulty. Success with Peanuts and $200 million FCF will accelerate the stock to $40. However, if we cash flow misses that aren't already baked into the current stock price, then yes, longs are in for further pain.

    Personally, it's my worst holding this year, by far. On a day when I've been enjoying long wins with Kors and Nvidia, and short wins with Tesla and Monster, Iconix had to come in, once again, and steal some of those profits. Fortunately, I have protective puts in place, so it's tough for me to lose anymore on this. Thus, I'm compelled to stick, and remain confident, especially with the management change.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Back to the 30's

    by rzipper1 Aug 1, 2015 7:12 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 4, 2015 5:46 PM Flag

    The company is trading at an astonishing 6.1 Price to Free Cash Flow multiple per last quarter's pace. Considering that this was done in an immensely difficult environment that included bird flu and bans, one can only imagine how well Pilgrim's will do once those impediments are removed, or at least relaxed a little.

    If you're worried about near-term shenanigans, then feel free to lock in your profits. However, longs who are willing to weather the short-selling pressure should see a lot of cash and price appreciation, as those on the other end get shaken out of their short trades. The stock's relative strength as of late is certainly an encouraging sign that this may be happening now. Personally, unless industry conditions deteriorate materially from here, I don't think the stock is worth reevaluating until it gets back above 30.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Aug 3, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    No new contracts for Gogo lately. Why? First and foremost, because it's now the slowest service. Second, because the free in-flight internet movement is growing; exclusively paid-for internet is being phased out, as planes see that its customers have come to expect it as a value-added feature. JetBlue has proven this. Ultimately, technology will be such that free internet while flying will be taken for granted, the way we've come to take for granted free internet at Starbucks, Panera Bread, and anywhere out and about. Gogo is already a dinosaur; it's the Sears of in-flight internet.

    GOGO will retest early-2015 lows by the end of the year, and will be worthless within 5 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Jul 31, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    Meghan Trainor will have a song for the movie. Her July 28 tweet regarding this has been favorited 2600 times, far more than most of her tweets.

    Now to a movie trailer views comparison. The third trailer was released on June 17, and has been viewed on YouTube over 1.6 million times. The official trailer for Kung #$%$ Panda 3 was released a day later, so basically at the same time. Views: not even 500,000. Each Panda movie easily $0.5 billion in ticket sales. Thus, early indicators point to Peanuts being a success, and, more importantly, a sustainable big-screen franchise. This obviously bodes well for Iconix, which gets a piece of the box office, and has licenses across a broad spectrum, including apparel, toys and gaming.

    Neil Cole-related BS aside, at this point, the upside opportunity is appealing enough to risk further downside. If the risks concern you, consider the Feb 2016 puts at a 20 strike for about 2.20, which gives you a breakeven of about 24. This seems costly; however, I see this stock as very likely to make an aggressive move over the next 7 months. If Peanuts hits, and other parts of the business meets expectations, the current price will prove obscenely undervalued, and ICON can get back to 40 in a hurry. BUT, if there's a hidden problem here, chaos will ensue, and the stock can potentially get cut in half. While I see a limited probability of the latter, give this year's performance, protection seems to make sense. Plus it may be possible to pull those puts and recoup some of that expense before expiration if the stock starts to look safer.

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Jul 30, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    I do agree with you about Cole, and I admittedly cringed when he gave the $200+ million free cash flow forecast during the last conference call. Even if he did feel confident about that number, the fact that Iconix hasn't cleared $50 million FCF in any of the last four quarters means that he should not have given that number. He needs to do a MUCH better job of under-promising and over-delivering, and if he had a history of that tactic, the stock would be higher.

    I'll also agree that even though we're both long, I wish that Eddie would cool it a little. He is from the Cole camp of cheerleading, and being a steady sort of guy, I don't like that at all, nor do basically any seasoned investors, for that matter. So please, Eddie - settle down, would you?

    However, if you are short, you are playing a very dangerous game, because at the current stock price, Iconix should generate enough cash to theoretically buy back all of its shares within 10 years, and that, I strongly believe, is very conservative. And given that he owns nearly 5% of the company, Neil has every incentive in the world to retire shares, especially in the low 20s. I have a hunch that he wants greater ownership, because of its potential to be an accelerated wealth driver for him, and I wouldn't even be surprised if he seeks to organize a team to take Iconix private if the stock price stays depressed.

    So yes, I am very cautious, and have had put protection in place (thankfully); however, the risk/reward ratio currently seems to favor longs in big a way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

17.22+0.12(+0.70%)Aug 28 4:02 PMEDT