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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

h8filledstr8shooter 33 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 11:29 AM Member since: Jul 25, 2006
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  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    Investors are starting to accept again the merit of TANGIBLE RESULTS, and are shifting money to quality biotechs like Biogen. And even if Isis produces anything that doesn't have patients rolling the dice every time they take it, the company will always be behind more capable competitors. It's been nothing but failures and pipe dreams with Isis for 25 years, and this won't change.

    Wouldn't surprise me if Crooke and the Team Isis gets desperate and fudges trial results, with both civil and criminal results to follow. Regardless of their actions and the stock's path, it will ultimately end up below $20. And that's being generous.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 6, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    When interest rates start rising, SHLD will be completely finished. Expect the stock to trickle down below 25 in the coming months, and then a complete implosion when imminent bankruptcy is confirmed.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ...that he has three times as much invested in Skyworks.
    I hope he cleaned himself off with a long shower after penning that blog.
    Again, just keeping the stock afloat 'till REIT season.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 6, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    Calling someone an idiot while butchering the English language. It never fails. These are the kind of suckers who will be there when ISIS gets cut in half in one trading session.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 6, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    This is exactly right. A 25+-year-old biotech that has NEVER developed any drug of merit. That's why Gilead dumped antisense in the early-90s.
    Stanley Crooke's best strength is his ability to sell this folly to investors. ISIS goes back to under $20 within a year, and really doesn't deserve to exist at all.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Like within-the-next-week soon. There's a rumbling going on here...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reason for the dump

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    Quality, resource-rich biotechs diversify with speculative partners' pipelines the same way that quality investors should. They can afford to give small payouts for superficial trial advances; it's like a venture capitalist investing in 20 embryonic-stage start-ups, knowing that he needs only one or two winners to make a generous return. But clearly, you're too simple and naive understand the dynamics.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Reason for the dump

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    Oh, and Isis will not be one of those winners, lest you think otherwise, which you do. Tsk tsk...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    these threads suck

    by drpepperaddict2 Mar 24, 2015 1:00 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 24, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    Yeah, he's a little off, and doesn't understand SHLD. Been asking for "patience" and "150" for about two years, so I think his activity is simply a function of his failure and desperation.

    If you want some legitimate substance, go down a couple of pages or so; you'll get to threads that provide some pretty insightful analysis.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Reason for the dump

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 25, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    Not done yet... look for low-mid 40s within a month or two. Eventually, though, when everyone again realizes that Isis isn't special, it the stock will get all the way down to around 10-15.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Reason for the dump

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    The only people who pay me are my clients - 1% of NAV, 20% of profits, against a roughly 80% annualized return last year.

    I know Isis more than you can possibly ever understand. The narrative of this company is finding ways to take money from ignorant, unsuspecting retail rubes like you, not to help those in need. But you won't sell the stock; you're too greedy and clueless to do something so rational.

    Enjoy the inevitable tax loss.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Why up on a down day?

    by indexplus2001 Mar 19, 2015 11:13 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 19, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    Just simple manipulation. The majority of the stock is owned by a Jewish Financial Mafia contingent (and before anyone overreacts with cries of anti-Semitism, I have Jewish partners who say the same things) that is working aggressively to keep the stock propped up until the REIT forms. Once that occurs, support for SHLD will no longer be needed to the extent that it's required now. The mob will pull the plug and redeploy its capital elsewhere, after which SHLD will crater.

    Under $20 by the end of the year; roughly $0 in 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 7, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    What stocks are you talking about? My short call in NQ, KNDI and other Chinese companies? My short call in PLUG and MXWL? My 3-D sector and WWE short calls? Or how about my long calls in OUTR in the low-mid-50s, or SPLS? Are those the bad calls you're talking about? Yeah, it's a shame I've made so many mistakes, or else I would have done better than the "weak" 80% annualized return I provided to me and my clients in 2014. And yes, that's net, i.e. after my 1 and 20 fee, the meaning of which you don't know, because you're just some wannabe store-clerk rube who's destined to be stuck in the mud because of the worthless DNA that your dog parents gave you.

    Let me guess: you got suckered into more than one of those heavily-pumped stocks that I mentioned. Yeah, you're a prime candidate for the PLUGs and NQs of the world. What happened, you read a couple of articles on technical analysis, and thought that investing was easy, and didn't require intelligence, education and sound fundamental analysis? Say what you want, and keep deluding yourself. I really hope you do, because without dumb money like yours in the market for the taking, my job would be a whole lot more difficult.

    I salute you, Walmart greeter.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • 1) It continues to demonstrate that it offers nothing of worth, and the stock gets dumped, leaving a sub-ten-dollar stock in the hands of chimp-brained novices who think that quality companies are measured by the amount of institutional ownership and Cramer-pumping.
    2) Isis - out of desperation to keep the stock price artificially elevated - increases the extent to which it embellishes the effectiveness of their drugs (see, e.g., Kynamro, ISIS-PTP1B), crossing the line into outright and undeniable fraud. Stock spikes short-term, but then the fraud is uncovered, Isis executives go to prison, and again, the aforementioned chimp-brained novices are left with a massive loss, growing credit-card debt, and thoughts of ending their sad lives.
    Either way, the stock crumbles, just as it always does when it comes to bad, integrity-deficient companies. It's just a matter of how many lawsuits and how much prison time accompanies the collapse.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy inevitable

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 6, 2015 10:00 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 8, 2015 6:29 PM Flag

    This is exactly right; great post (and the post above is on point, too). Even if the REIT happens and gets them a cash bump, the FCF break-even hurdle will be even more difficult to clear, as it was after the Lands' End spin-off. And given that any REIT created out of this mess will have Sears and Kmart as tenants, that's not exactly an enticing investment opportunity.

    Long LE and short SHLD is a hedged way to play this, since if the latter dies, the former will still be a viable entity through its standalone operations (i.e. those out from under the Sears umbrella). I think this is one of the better pairs trade ideas available right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Feb 23, 2015 9:29 AM Flag

    Now is the part when we dump our shares in a ridiculously valued stock, and leave the busted shares in the hands of you unsuspecting moms and pops. CYBR is heading back to the 20s.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy inevitable

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 6, 2015 10:00 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 10, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Look, I wouldn't say that there's NO chance, but it will take a miracle, and with someone better than Eddie Lampert at the helm. But thus far, they've done nothing with the quality of the operations itself to suggest that they're moving in the right direction. As I suggested earlier, the area in which they've displayed the greatest degree of competency is in how they've sold the potential turnaround story and bought some time. Otherwise, the stock would not be in the 30s. To reiterate, 'long LE/short SHLD' is a pairs trade idea here. A better value when I suggested it earlier, but still a good way to hedge this.

    If you want a long play in the distressed brick-and-mortar retail space, you're better off with JCP. Even though I also don't believe in that company, and was short JCP up until recently, I believe it has a somewhat better chance of survival than SHLD. But I'd avoid both.

    And just to show that I'm not all doom-and-gloom, I'll give you an apparel-oriented stock that I absolute love: ICON. It's one of the few incredible value plays available; an absolute steal.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Reason for the dump

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 26, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Hang in there, longs. You still have another 10 or so points to lose over the next month.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy inevitable

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 6, 2015 10:00 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 9, 2015 9:28 PM Flag

    Yeah, certainly today supported the short argument; however, I know the perils of gloating too early, and wouldn't dare do it here. After all, the Sears team has done an amazing job selling the turnaround narrative to investors (otherwise the stock would be much lower), so I wouldn't be surprised if they can leverage the possible REIT spin-off to generate another fleeting round of tangible optimism. In the interim, I am covering my short position with deep out-of-the-money puts, which allows me to take advantage of the high implied stock volatility to improve the cost basis of my short position. This can ultimately hurt my profit potential if the company has an event - e.g. debt default - that pushes the stock well below my option strike. Hopefully, however, I can roughly anticipate when this might occur, and pull my written puts in time.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Dec 31, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    You should all consider drunk driving off a bridge tonight, because 2015 won't be any better for you.

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