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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

h8filledstr8shooter 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 7, 2015 3:49 PM Member since: Jul 25, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Lampert, Tisch, Berkowitz & now LEON COOPERMAN

    by ctwv1 Sep 9, 2015 10:29 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Sep 10, 2015 11:48 PM Flag

    You longs posted this before, but deleted it, perhaps due to my rebuttal, which I cut-and-pasted here (see below dotted line). Nowadays, having Cooperman on your side is, more often than not, a negative. Collectively, SHLD's institutional support is pathetic, and shouldn't exactly instill confidence.


    Oh, you mean the same Leon Cooperman who was DOWN 3% in 2014?
    The same Leon Cooperman who overweighted shale producers while oil was tanking?
    The same Leon Cooperman watching key holding SunEdison implode under a mountain of debt?
    The same Leon Cooperman who's consistently been on the wrong side of distressed companies, like Caesars and SandRidge?

    Is that the same Leon Cooperman who's giving you comfort? Tsk tsk...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Sep 24, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    How's it going, GOGO longs? I hope you're adequately prepared for a single-digit stock price.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Oct 29, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Bids, bids, and more bids. The stock went the wrong way after earnings, and those who are digging deep into the numbers, and know where to look and how to interpret them, are recognizing this. I've added aggressively to bring my cost basis to just under 20.

    This is clearly for patient, astute investors only, but significant rewards will come to them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Oct 30, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    To reiterate, this morning's action is what should have happened yesterday. Hopefully, this example of investor intelligence will continue.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ...the 3:30 PM interview on CNBC with Craig Schulz. Very positive, with a material mention of Iconix's involvement with the Peanuts brand, ownership and otherwise.

    The movie is getting excellent early reviews, and you can see licensing partnerships everywhere. As long as next week's earnings report isn't ugly, a continued move higher in the stock price should depend on the box office (so you longs better go see the movie!)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Nov 5, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    Well hasn't this been the worst investment ever! Now I'm starting to wonder if Neil Cole may be criminally charged, much less civilly.

    With that said (written), these are accounting-based restatements, not cash-based. Yes, there appears to be aggressive revenue recognition, and receivables will be written down, but ex. the extraordinary items, there's still far too much free cash flow for this discount. And Cuneo is Cuneo, i.e. a proven honorable, sharp leader. I doubt Cole's team would've been this transparent and forthright.

    Am I putting my money where my mouth is/fingers are? Yeah. Been buying steadily after-hours. Budget of roughly 10,000 shares, which I'll probably hit.

    Besides the concern of future bad news pertaining to the restatement, there's a worry that Iconix will be acquired or taken private at a price well below what it deserves, precluding shareholders from realizing a fair value. So even if it's worth in the 20s when the smoke clears, an astute team may scoop it up during this period of distress, when it doesn't have to pay nearly that much It's happened before, and there's some potential for that happening here.

    To put it plainly: good grief.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by h8filledstr8shooter Nov 5, 2015 7:02 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Nov 5, 2015 8:12 PM Flag

    People should keep in mind that a large portion of the quarter-to-quarter operating expense are non-cash items, e.g. depreciation, amortization of debt/trademarks/intangibles, allowance for doubtful accounts, etc...

    With quick updates to my model, even if organically-driven forward-looking revenues run at $370 million annual ($92.5/quarter), free cash flow of ~$150 million is still possible. Zero-growth, but stable companies with Iconix's capital structure are typically worth no less than ~$1.5 billion, while Iconix is now at ~$400 million. Of course, there is SO much controversy and uncertainty with the company that few investors want to take a chance at even this price. To be fair, it's hard to blame them. Some institutional investors may also have a mandate to avoid companies in a restatement period, which may have exacerbated the after-hours sell-off.

    But I'm sticking with it; hit about 10,000 shares purchased in the after-hours session, and have gotten back to roughly equal weight in the portfolio. Someday I'll get this one right. :)

    And tomorrow, as a much-needed distraction, I'll golf, have a nice dinner, and then take my sister's nephews to go see The Peanuts Movie (86% on Rotten Tomatoes, by the way).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Email to Iconix Investor Relations

    by deanmortensen Nov 7, 2015 11:28 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Nov 7, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    I couldn't agree more. Iconix will be quickly (and justifiably) dismiss this letter.

    Applying the buyback authorization at this level would be nice under the right circumstances. However, the priority is securing a satisfactory exit of the 2.5% Convertible Notes. Such a current liability obligation for a company with Iconix's issues takes precedence over buybacks. If anything, given the present situation, there's a higher probability of dilution. While I suspect it won't come to that, and alternatives (e.g. current cash, future cash generation, asset sales, debt refinancing) should be able to absorb this payment, Iconix still must be conservative with how it deploys cash.

    The new leadership is sharp, and understands how to get out of this mess better than any of us. Leave them alone to do what's best.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

14.27+0.07(+0.49%)Nov 27 1:02 PMEST