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Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. Message Board

h8filledstr8shooter 37 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 7:53 PM Member since: Jul 25, 2006
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  • Reply to

    How dumb can the longs here be?

    by careful_investor_wins Apr 24, 2015 3:58 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Apr 24, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    I'm short, but you really need to stop posting so much. You're repeating yourself, and the stuff that you're repeating offers little, if any meaningful substance. The childish overuse of "LOL", the remedial high school analyses... it's unnecessary, and it weakens a fundamentally solid short argument.

    PLEASE stop diluting the points made by the more savvy investment/real estate posters here, and leave the superficial barrage of banalities to guys like rocket_sears.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Apr 22, 2015 2:56 AM Flag

    Geez, spengler60... how much more hypocritical and self-serving can your response be? Sure, maybe the level of insight that 'careful' has on SHLD is remedial, but his posts, in the aggregate, are not nearly as superficial as those coming from rocket_sears, and you haven't ONCE chastised that poster for his repetitive nonsense. In fact, you've essentially given 'rocket' the equivalent of a back-pat for his daily "patience" chants, proving you're more bias than substance. Again, the hypocrisy is grotesquely obvious, and for that, I'd rather encourage 'careful' to continue posting than suggest he take a break.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    COWAN ,,,,market perform from

    by eddiebrown308 Apr 2, 2015 11:23 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Apr 7, 2015 8:13 PM Flag

    Ignore the published opinions of analysts. They are generally worthless, and Cowen is as about as bad as it gets. Investing alongside that group of prostitutes, pawns, and incompetents will put you on a short path to financial destruction.

    It appears as if you've had a great run with Iconix; if you're looking to close out, you should get a better opportunity in the mid-high 40s. The current price doesn't make sense, and sure, it's frustrating. It's also healthy to question portfolio holdings. As a value-oriented investment manager, I search for stocks that I believe to be deeply discounted (while shorting over-hyped growth stories), and sometimes I have to accept that my initial thesis was flawed, concede defeat and take the loss. Selling losers can be a very tough thing to do, but swallowing your pride separates the good investors from the bad ones. Yeah, maybe ICON will blindside me, and show that its current valuation was justified all along. As things stand now, however, this appears to be extraordinarily unlikely. Consequently, I remain very confident here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is a rough guess, based on adding the income and depreciation/amortization numbers provided by the prospectus. And I can't imagine that Sears was spending more than $30 million in capex on this real estate, given how aggressively they've cut corners. All told, this transaction will probably widen the gap to break-even FCF by another $50 million (conservatively speaking, I'd wager). For a company with negative FCF of $1.2 billion in 2014 (including PP&E disposals), this transaction is yet another example of providing short-term breathing room, but one more long-term nail in the coffin.

    I visited Kmart and Sears stores this week, by the way. Depressing. Scowls abound on customers (almost all of whom were short, chubby, thin-haired old ladies) and employees. At one Kmart, the security alarm sounded seconds after I walked in (no, not my fault), and was still beeping loudly when I left minutes later. Low traffic, run down, dimly lit, disorganized... everything we saw in Sozzi's pictures.

    The REIT and new tenants... that is the only Sears that will ultimately exist.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Apr 1, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    Got it. So you announced on March 24 that you were long CANF since 2014, with no indication of an intent to close, but then - with silent, yet stunning 180-degree clairvoyance - sold just before the collapse. How convenient. By the way, March 24 is within the "end of March" timeframe; one who commits to avoiding binary events would have sold before then. But hey, you're a regular magic-man, so...

    And it's tough to be more naive and ignorant than complaining about short-selling on a SHLD message board. That's some serious irony right there.

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Apr 1, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    Judging by your disastrous call on CANF, I can't imagine you having worthwhile insight on ANY stock, much less SHLD. Maybe you should put whatever you have left in an index fund.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Thank you Thank you

    by eddiebrown308 Apr 1, 2015 10:37 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Apr 1, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    Agreed; this is one of the strangest valuations out there.
    And I think a buyback-oriented company like Iconix is quietly thanking the market, too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Jeff Lupinacci is MASSIVELY overrated

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 30, 2015 6:48 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Apr 1, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    Good comments below.

    Very encouraging intraday reversal just occurred; too early to tell, but hopefully this is for real. I added. (FYI: Have owned for over two years, with some intermittent buying/selling.)

    I also initiated a strangle option trade yesterday, which I rarely do:
    Long May 30 call
    Long May 35 put
    Price: 6.35.
    Max loss: 1.35. Max gain: infinity (technically, at least)
    Target return and holding period: 15-20%,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 30, 2015 6:48 PM Flag

    The market is grossly misjudging the impact of his departure.
    Interim CFO David Blumberg, on the other hand, is a true asset, not to mention a far superior financial mind. This episode will ultimately prove to be a positive for Iconix.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reason for the dump

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 26, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Hang in there, longs. You still have another 10 or so points to lose over the next month.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Reason for the dump

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 25, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    Not done yet... look for low-mid 40s within a month or two. Eventually, though, when everyone again realizes that Isis isn't special, it the stock will get all the way down to around 10-15.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    these threads suck

    by drpepperaddict2 Mar 24, 2015 1:00 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 24, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    Yeah, he's a little off, and doesn't understand SHLD. Been asking for "patience" and "150" for about two years, so I think his activity is simply a function of his failure and desperation.

    If you want some legitimate substance, go down a couple of pages or so; you'll get to threads that provide some pretty insightful analysis.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Reason for the dump

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    Oh, and Isis will not be one of those winners, lest you think otherwise, which you do. Tsk tsk...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Reason for the dump

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    Quality, resource-rich biotechs diversify with speculative partners' pipelines the same way that quality investors should. They can afford to give small payouts for superficial trial advances; it's like a venture capitalist investing in 20 embryonic-stage start-ups, knowing that he needs only one or two winners to make a generous return. But clearly, you're too simple and naive understand the dynamics.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Reason for the dump

    by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    The only people who pay me are my clients - 1% of NAV, 20% of profits, against a roughly 80% annualized return last year.

    I know Isis more than you can possibly ever understand. The narrative of this company is finding ways to take money from ignorant, unsuspecting retail rubes like you, not to help those in need. But you won't sell the stock; you're too greedy and clueless to do something so rational.

    Enjoy the inevitable tax loss.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter by h8filledstr8shooter Mar 20, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    Investors are starting to accept again the merit of TANGIBLE RESULTS, and are shifting money to quality biotechs like Biogen. And even if Isis produces anything that doesn't have patients rolling the dice every time they take it, the company will always be behind more capable competitors. It's been nothing but failures and pipe dreams with Isis for 25 years, and this won't change.

    Wouldn't surprise me if Crooke and the Team Isis gets desperate and fudges trial results, with both civil and criminal results to follow. Regardless of their actions and the stock's path, it will ultimately end up below $20. And that's being generous.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    ADVICE

    by hwardeinhorn Mar 19, 2015 7:16 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 19, 2015 9:25 PM Flag

    SHLD will go to $0 - that is inevitable. The question is, how will it get there? Will it artificially (fraudulently) enjoy another spike to 50 and above before the collapse, or will it rationally and efficiently begin a fundamentally justified tumble within the next month? While the latter promotes market integrity, the former is very possible here, and will allow you to profit (provided you close your position in time).

    Personally, I never short naked against a sketchy and devious opponent (e.g. Lampert) without buying protective calls, at least I never leave it naked when concerns of a pump are as strong as they are now. Consequently, I have in place protective calls, the cost of which are more-than offset by written puts. This has allowed me to, in the aggregate, enjoy a profitable trade (at the moment) and sleep easy at night, while waiting for the aforementioned inevitable collapse.

    Just think it through. Lands' End was one of SHLD's few profit centers. Now that it's spun off, Sears has a larger negative FCF gap to cover. But operations got worse. In a few months, there should be a new REIT entity that will likely assume a tolerable cost structure (i.e. revenues expenses, to put it simply), which means that Sears will have an even LARGER negative FCF gap to cover. But... operations are still getting worse. The immediate cash gain is a short-term remedy, but the cash will burn fast. It's sort of a "give a man a fish" thing. If Sears hasn't shown signs of turning the corner yet, it sure won't be able to in the second half of 2015, when more operational pieces of merit will be passed off to another entity. It is as hopeless as Circuit City and pre-bailout GM (both previous shorts of mine).

    Longs outside of Lambert's circle are definitely playing with fire.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ...that he has three times as much invested in Skyworks.
    I hope he cleaned himself off with a long shower after penning that blog.
    Again, just keeping the stock afloat 'till REIT season.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Why up on a down day?

    by indexplus2001 Mar 19, 2015 11:13 AM
    h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 19, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    Just simple manipulation. The majority of the stock is owned by a Jewish Financial Mafia contingent (and before anyone overreacts with cries of anti-Semitism, I have Jewish partners who say the same things) that is working aggressively to keep the stock propped up until the REIT forms. Once that occurs, support for SHLD will no longer be needed to the extent that it's required now. The mob will pull the plug and redeploy its capital elsewhere, after which SHLD will crater.

    Under $20 by the end of the year; roughly $0 in 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • h8filledstr8shooter h8filledstr8shooter Mar 18, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Apparently, you've been suggesting this fair valuation for at least two years, i.e. since around the heavily flawed, dishonestly self-serving Baker Street piece. SHLD's price would be MUCH closer to your pipe-dream target by now if legitimate money shared your sentiment. Instead, Sears is not taken seriously; consequently, its cronies have to work daily to prop up the stock (as it did today when the stock took a significant intraday hit) until the REIT forms.

    The more likely price for SHLD, ex the 200-300 relatively high-quality spaces that it will parachute over to the REIT, is closer to $0 (and "closer to $0" is me being generous). That is, assuming all properties are worth $4.5-$5 billion (and again, I'm being nice), the REIT will have $2 billion of the real estate, while SHLD will have $3 billion, PLUS a daily cash burn of over a few million a day, PLUS its tangible book value of negative $2+ billion. Pretty worthless. Once the REIT is formed, Team Lampert will essentially neglect SHLD as if it was an unwanted child conceived out of wedlock with a Dallas stripper, while it concurrently scrambles to line up new tenants for those aforementioned properties. Assuming Lambert can get those tenants fairly seamlessly, and without material disruption to the REIT's cash flow, the REIT can survive and be a stable going concern, while Sears and Kmart become a distant memory.

    When this happens, unsuspecting SHLD investors will be in for a rude awakening.

    So rocket-sears, if you're just here as a hired gun to support SHLD's artificially inflated share price, then by all means, keep doing your job. I (and others) will wait patiently until the plug is pulled, selling attractively valued puts along the way to improve cost basis and cover short fees. On the other hand, if you TRULY believe in the deeply flawed narrative that you're so aggressively perpetuating, then you might want to check yourself for some serious overconfidence bias. Icarus always dies in end.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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