Uralkali stopped operations on a potash mine because of a brine inflow. This mine produced 23% of their potash last year. Seems like the type of event which creates a nice selling opportunity if you ask me, but I'll hold like an idiot for even longer and watch the stock trickle back down to the low 40s.
MOS, POT, AGU all up nice. What's the news? I'm at work and could only research for a minute, but I didn't see anything about industry mergers, Uralkali, or any kind of potash/phosphate supply issues. Anyone?
To the people who gave a thumbs down, I'm assuming you don't agree with my comment which begs the question, why would you agree to a buyout at 52 if the stock is currently trading at 52? Do you honestly think Softbank can offer $52/share and shareowners would approve the deal? Are you insane?
The flaw: they could not buy all shares of YHOO at the current market price. No one would agree to it. They'd have to pay a premium, probably at least 20% over the current market price in order for approval.
Nice! I rode AAPL from 71 to 100, then sold it and put then entire lot into YHOO on 9/19 at 41.01.
It's a long story which goes back to my days in high school. It really has no meaning now other that just being a weird username.
During the tech bubble, every internet and tech company out there was overpriced, hundreds of them. When I said darlings, I meant like 3-4 growth stocks. It's hard to find high growth companies these days so Wall Street continues to buy the few which actually have over 30% growth. As far as a crash goes, most smart investors use a stop loss.
I didn't buy TSLA at 50 because I thought it overpriced. Big mistake.
I didn't buy AMZN at 70 because I thought it was overpriced. Big mistake.
Wall Street has it's darlings and they keep buying them regardless of valuation. BABA is the newest member of this list.
I have a feeling BABA's price action will be similar to various stretches for AMZN, NFLX and TSLA. The street will just keep buying and buying for no reason other than that's the hot thing to do. It'll have stretches where it loses 10-15% but then it'll go right back up to new highs in the following days. It's fine with me. I don't care why the stock increases. YHOO to 60 by March seems like a sure bet.
YHOO up 15.95%
BABA up 15.74%
Just in case you were wondering. This obviously does not factor in the huge increase in BABA on day 1. It starts at the close on 9/19.
I remember reading this article about the Fitch rating about a year ago so I pulled it up again. Here's an excerpt:
Mosaic's capital management philosophy includes a return of excess cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. Currently, Mosaic's balance sheet carries very little leverage, 0.4x total debt to operating EBITDA at Sept. 30, 2013. Pro-forma for the proposed debt issuance, leverage would climb to 1.2x. Supporting managements' decision to repurchase shares are large cash balances and the upcoming end of a lock-up period on November 26 on some 43 million shares owned by Cargill family members, and the Ann Ray Charitable Trust and the Margaret A. Cargill Foundation (the MAC Trusts). Lock-up periods for a similar number of shares owned by family members and the MAC Trusts expire in November of 2014 and 2015, all together some 30% of Mosaic's outstanding shares.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the 2nd Cargill tranche of 43m shares still locked up until 11/26/14? Either way, it's probably better they haven't used a dime of the $600m. I'd hate to see that money wasted on shares at 46 when they could be purchased lower. I think they'll probably do the same thing with the 2nd tranche as the 1st, which is buy about half in early January and buy the rest in equal installments monthly. I have no beef with this. If they get the share count down to 333M by the end of 2015, they'd need $1B in earnings to get back to a 3.00 P/E, which is within reason. Put a 17 multiple on it and we're back to 51 by the end of 2015. Add in the divy and that's a 20% return by the end of next year. Obviously, I'd like more but I'll take what I can get at this point.
I marked this post because I knew this would be a mistake. That GPRO buy is 13 points underwater now and YHOO is flying high.