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Mitek Systems, Inc. Message Board

h8ster 49 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: May 1, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Market Cap = $1.00B

    by almsfolly 17 hours ago h8ster 10 hours ago Flag

    Lot of reasons to buy. You have the chart for one, at the point of a breakout after passing the last resistance point of $9.58, the high short interest, the surpassed squeeze trigger of $5.79, Insider buying, Drug has been fast tracked by FDA.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Volume Final

    by h8ster Nov 12, 2014 4:16 PM h8ster Nov 12, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    Just occurred to me, when institutional shorts do finally cover it will probably be in afterhours or premarket, forcing those that remain short in normal hours to be ruined. Short sellers always destroy other short sellers.

  • by h8ster Nov 12, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    Short Volume (Shorting & Covering) for the day: 472,146 shares on 1,712,083 trading volume. 27.6% of trading volume was short volume. Up 1.2% from the average of 26.4% since the surge began.
    Intraday SqueezeTrigger Price: $6.48

    Shorting and selling pressure was high in the 6.40's and lasted through much of the day. The sellers and shorters fought hard, but failed in the end. My guess is that short sellers ran out of shares to short for the day and were over powered by other shorts covering and additional buyers. Still, the fact remains. the majority of short share holders ARE NOT covering. Short volume should be double what it is right now given the losses that are occurring. Is it their ego that makes them hold?

    With volume remaining high, we should continue to rise. Tomorrow, short sellers will back at it again with the philosophy, "it's gotta go down at some point." The thing is, there are still over 6 million shorted shares that have yet to be covered.

    This is the chief reason that short sellers never short a stock with +3 short ratio. The higher you go, the more likely runs like this continue. PGNX is listed with a 13 day short ratio. Realisitcally, with current momentum, the ratio is around +8. Regardless of what short sellers think the pps should do, they never short a stock that has a short ratio that high.

    The moment that the main short share holders, which are the institutions with money out their #$%$, and can remain short as long as the earth spins, decide to stop loosing money and cover, this thing goes to 11.

  • by h8ster Nov 12, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    Short Volume Today: 371,755 shares
    Intraday SqueezeTrigger Price: $6.44

  • Reply to


    by kgtradesabit Nov 12, 2014 2:11 PM h8ster Nov 12, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    We have a battle going on today. Ton of shorting in the 6.40's.

  • by h8ster Nov 12, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    Short Volume Today: 147,470 shares
    Intraday SqueezeTrigger Price: $6.46

    Epic battle going on in the $6.40's between short sellers and buyers. How soon until shares that are available to be shorted run out? How much more money will be thrown at shorting this. The PPS is not crashing like it normally would on heavy short volume. Who's going to give in first?

  • Reply to

    End of Day Short Volume

    by h8ster Nov 11, 2014 4:22 PM h8ster Nov 12, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    It is high, yes. Getting here now, yeah is a gamble for small retail investors. I would get in because of the vast amount of shorted shares that have yet to be covered. But I also wouldn't take a big loss if it started to crash. I'd keep it on a tight leash.

  • Reply to

    End of Day Short Volume

    by h8ster Nov 11, 2014 4:22 PM h8ster Nov 11, 2014 8:15 PM Flag

    Exactly! That tells you who is short. Regular retail short sellers do not have that type of collateral. They are screwed. Flat out burned. Which means the majority of short interest is in the hands of institutional shorts. They can stay short as long as the earth still spins.

    As of 10/31, $46,700,711 dollars have been spent shorting PGNX. That's how much money is being lost right now. As soon as the PPS hit $4.90, that money started disappearing. The question for us, in trying to gauge when the stubbron institutional shorts will cover, is what is their magic number? At what price, does loosing become unexceptable for them? When does their ego cry uncle? You figure that out, you can become rich. Will they spend another million to bring the pps back down???? Are there enough shares available to even be shorted to do that?

    If you are trading this all you can do is guess what it will do. When being at the mercy of things you can't control, have stop losses in place.

  • Reply to

    End of Day Short Volume

    by h8ster Nov 11, 2014 4:22 PM h8ster Nov 11, 2014 7:30 PM Flag

    No. Its the amount of time, that given the daily average volume, will be needed for all the shorted shares to be covered. Its called the Short Ratio. You take the amount of shares and divide that by the daily average volume.

    For PGNX, thru 10/31, the Daily average volume (DAV) was 728,506 shares traded. There are are 9,550,260 shares shorted. If trading volume stayed at 728,506, it would take roughly 13 days to generate enough volume to cover all of the shares.

    However, in PGNX's case, the volume has nearly tripled. Since Friday, the daily average volume has been 2,580,851. So, the DAV is different and 13 days to cover isn't as accurate as is was last week. Given that info, if volume continues at these levels, the short ratio would change to 3-4 days for shorts to cover.

    Of course, the majority of the volume would have to be short interest and currently, it's not. Roughly 26-27% of the daily volume has consisted of short volume. Both shorting and covering. Short volume for the past 3 days has been right around 2 million. That includes covering and additional shorting. With this current pace we are looking at about 8-9 days that it will take for shorts to cover.

    So, as you can see, the short ratio can be misleading. Its only there to help guide you to a more accurate reading. Given the data we currently have, it clearly shows that many shorts are refusing to cover. The ones that don't have to that is. Instead, many are averaging up, which is equivilant to longs averaging down, in an attempt to cut their losses in half. Given the massive amount of shorting today, short sellers are gambling that the run is over and will do everything in their power to get this to drop back. They are hoping and praying that longs start taking profits. Its the only way this drops. Some will, some won't. Time will tell.

  • Presentation at the Stifel Healthcare Conference in New York on November 18, 2014 at 2:25 PM EST
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  • by h8ster Nov 11, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    Short Volume (Shorting & Covering) end of day. 625,605 shares on 2,369,352 volume 26.4% of volume was short volume. Exactly like yesterday.
    Intraday SqueezeTrigger Price: $6.33
    This was a day nearly everybody won. Longs are up .31 and those that short today, on average, are up .05.
    Today's volume indicates that we are still headed for higher highs as our volume remains double it's average.

    The fuel will eventually run out and this will consolidate, but not yet. With millions upon millions of shares that are still shorted, the volume should continue to be high as shorts will continue to be forced to cover.

    Short Interest decreased from 9.7 million to 9.5 million at EOD 10/31. Short ratio increased however to 13 days to cover from 11. Since friday, our short volume (Shorting and covering) has been below 2 million. With much of that being additional shorting. There are still over 7 million shares that remain shorted at prices in the 4's and 5's.

    The Street begrudgingly are covering their shorted shares as evidenced by them upgrading EPGL from sell to hold. I have never seen a company express such frustration at an upgrade. Hilarious! Hope somebody there gets fired.

  • Reply to

    latest short #'s

    by alangale22 Nov 11, 2014 4:14 PM h8ster Nov 11, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    But the Daily average volume was lower as well. The short ratio increased from 11 days to 13 days to cover.

  • Going into the final 30. The previous 30 min, short volume consisted of shorting. 40-50K
    @ 12:30pm Short Volume Today: 573,147 shares
    Intraday SqueezeTrigger Price: $6.33

  • Reply to

    Intraday Short Volume info.

    by h8ster Nov 11, 2014 2:35 PM h8ster Nov 11, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    For shares being shortted right now, nit until the end of the month. Afterhours today will show shares shorted through to November 1

  • by h8ster Nov 11, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    Shorting has increased greatly over the last hour in the 6:30's. Roughly 40K have been shorted since then.
    Short Volume Today: 559,330 shares
    Intraday SqueezeTrigger Price: $6.34

    Trying to entice some to take profits. Not a bad idea, but of course, remember that there are still way over 5 million shorts that are burned and have yet to cover.

  • Short Volume (Covering & Shorting) Today: 516,598 shares
    Intraday SqueezeTrigger Price: $6.34

    Shorts were shorting heavy earlier in the $6.15 range. Then they put it on heavy going up as we hit $6.30, $6.40 and $6.50. Again as we went back down. I don't know how many shares are available for them to short, but the amount has got to be running low. They are trying to 'average up' in order to cut their losses. Same thing as Longs averaging down. Once the amount runs dry, there remains enough momentum to keep it going upwards.

    There are still sooooo many shorts that haven't covered. Having 'The Street' finally cave in was good. Now we just need the bigger institutions to start.

  • by h8ster Nov 11, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Hardly a fraction of shorts have covered. How much pain will they accept before they cover? The Street finally had to bite the bullet and they are covering their shorted shares.

    The short ratio is 11 days! 11 days to cover! With nearly 10 million shares shorted, hardly a 1 million have covered so far since Friday. So many more have yet to be fried.

  • Reply to

    Short Volume Update

    by h8ster Nov 10, 2014 2:51 PM h8ster Nov 10, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    Yes. Short volume is a combo of both. You can only estimate which is which by watching it increase simultaneously as transactions get executed. And you can also tell by how the intraday squeeze trigger behaves.

  • by h8ster Nov 10, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    Short Volume Today: 430,423 shares on 1,585,233 volume.
    Intraday SqueezeTrigger Price: $5.68

    Covering started after we broke the $4.70 reisstance. Shorts tried hard to short it back down at $.70, which they succeeded in getting it to $4.60, in which they then started to heavily short at $4.60 to beat it down further, but failed. They tried again when we got back to $4.70, but failed to repeat getting it back to $4.60. They then ran out of shares to short and buyers simply outlasted them, and finally broke $4.80, confirming the breakout, which then started shorts to cover and accept their losses. It has now begun. No established resistance until $6.40

    Its fun when you can can watch this #$%$ unfold in real time.

  • Reply to

    Intraday Short Volume

    by h8ster Nov 10, 2014 11:09 AM h8ster Nov 10, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    Short selling increasing the last 30 minutes. They are fighting hard to keep this from breaking out.
    Short volume (Shorting & Covering) currently at 191,460 on 706,154 volume.
    Intraday Short Squeeze Trigger Increases to $5.60

3.49-0.12(-3.32%)Nov 25 4:00 PMEST

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