If Rex had any guts he'd predict something useful; just saying it will go up in the next couple of years doesn't help anyone (for one thing, we'll have to wait two years to see if you are right.) And saying oil prices go up and down - phew; what are you going to tell us next - that the sun will rise in the East tomorrow, and then set in the West?
C'mon Rex, grow a pair and (try to) say something intelligent; will oil go up or down in the next month, and what is your reasoning?
On the other hand, he'd have a lot more money if he had put his father's money into an S&P500 fund when he inherited it instead of working his "magic".
Let me first say that I expect to get nothing from SS for several reasons. However, you have made several fundamental errors in your calculations. This makes me think that you should be doing more listening and less speaking:
1) Let's assume you make exactly 30k each year for 40 years for simplicity. The nominal SS taxes paid (including employer share) would be 0.124 x 30,000 x 40 = $148,800. I guess you include medicare (which gets you to $183k) because you don't know what you're talking about.
2) I'll even give you your total of $180k. Even if I were to apply 40 years of 1% interest, compounded on a monthly basis, to this full $180k (meaning I'll let it all go in on day 1 rather than over 40 years), then you'd have (1+(0.01/12))^480 * 180,000 = $268,484.
- It appears to me that you have made the error of using a 1% MONTHLY interest rate instead of a 1% interest rate. Good luck getting 1% monthly; if you can do that you won't have to worry about SS.
I know the above is a lot of complicated (for you) math, and it's much easier to just read something on some goofy website, but you really should try to understand it before opening your mouth.
Even if you understood the math of compound interest, you still can't make the retirement income comparison because you're comparing a particular case to an average. Dumb.
Finally, you're either ignoring the disability insurance part of SS, or you don't understand it. I'm guessing it's the latter.
Here's something to consider if you have more than one IRA (for example, a rollover and a traditional or Roth):
If your number of shares is getting large enough to start worrying about UBTI, split your BX holding between your IRAs. As far as I can see (note: I am not a tax attorney, although I do play one on TV), you can reduce your chance of being hit with a UBTI tax in this way.
The reason for this is that the price of ERX is not based on the price of oil - it is based upon companies in the oil sector. While the share prices of these companies are highly correlated to the price of oil, it is regularly happens that ERX go down while the price of oil goes up when the overall market has big down day, and vice versa.
Man - it's no wonder you like Rump when you have reading comprehension skills like that. When he says that he "loves the poorly educated" he means that he loves you!
(And I see you have plenty of time on your hands.)
I love how superior you feel while you're giving it up on the first date to a snake oil salesman.