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Cray Inc. Message Board

hackasackahack 39 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 13, 2012 6:13 PM Member since: Sep 23, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Over $15

    by hackasackahack Dec 7, 2012 6:02 PM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Dec 13, 2012 6:13 PM Flag

    You might want to reduce the dosage of your medicines. The new ventures are the things they have spoken about publicly. I don't have any private information. I certainly would not use it to my advantage if I did anyway.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hackasackahack by hackasackahack Dec 7, 2012 6:02 PM Flag

    Another 52-week high. CRAY keeps on ticking. One of the few stocks paying no attention to market malaise. Still cheap because of book value protection. Still cheap because of the potential value of the company's new ventures.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    On our way !!!!!!!!!!!

    by cudzero Nov 28, 2012 12:52 PM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Nov 29, 2012 6:20 PM Flag

    I own a token position in SPLK. They do some amazing stuff. I love the knowledge companies can gain using their products. Most people believe they are overvalued. I believe they will grow into their current price. From then on, it will be north of 35% a year stock-price growth until the party ends. The short-sellers have a point; but theirs is a valuation point. I don't believe they have an operational or competitive argument. They are just blowing smoke in this vein. SPLK has a pretty nifty piece of magic. That's why they are so highly valued. There are few, if any, comparables out there.

    As to CRAY, they may be looked upon as a Big Data play one day. At that point, the stock becomes a sum-of-the-parts valuation. In addition, they have big protection on the downside because of their excess cash. This combination is rare. Ungaro said that their new businesses are growing 3-6 times their HPC business. Their HPC business is growing low double digits. And these are revenue growth rates. Earnings will grow even faster.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    On our way !!!!!!!!!!!

    by cudzero Nov 28, 2012 12:52 PM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Nov 28, 2012 2:57 PM Flag

    IBM has had plenty of opportunities to buy CRAY in the past. There might be anti-trust issues. I'm not sure. The government might also want to keep two suppliers. That is a natural reason not to approve any deal. I think a deal is unlikely. I'd also prefer CRAY to motor along by itself. Ungaro has been doing a good job. Let him continue. Of course, if someone wants to pay me $30 today, I won't complain; but a lot would have to go right for CRAY to support that sort of price. It might eventually get there but it will take (say) a couple of years.

    It's good to see the stock paying almost no attention to market weakness. It's in regular new 52-week high mode. Not a bad deal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    cash balance

    by greenangold Nov 16, 2012 11:53 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Nov 19, 2012 12:49 PM Flag

    They intend investing in Big Data heavily. That will burn some of the cash. Even so, they should have plenty left over. I suspect they will buy something else with part of that. They seem intent on slowly transforming the company, or at least broadening the revenue base. Nothing wrong with a special dividend but they have at best a couple of weeks before it will be too late.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    XC30

    by hackasackahack Nov 8, 2012 5:06 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Nov 12, 2012 1:06 PM Flag

    Pretty awesome to see CRAY doing so well. It does not hurt to have the fastest supercomputer in the world; and their XC30 looks like a dynamite winner. The last time the stock closed over $14 was April 9, 2007. It closed at $14.02 then. With good earnings, good expectations, new products (in multiple areas), a good balance sheet, and strong volume, we should easily pass $14 sometime soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    XC30

    by hackasackahack Nov 8, 2012 5:06 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Nov 8, 2012 7:09 AM Flag

    100 petaflops in a few years. And really potentially higher than that. Great job.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hackasackahack by hackasackahack Nov 8, 2012 5:06 AM Flag

    Sweet and innovative machine. 100 Petaflops. $100 million in contracts already. Incredible on both counts. Well done, Cray!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Where did every one go?

    by darrel812 Jul 26, 2012 2:54 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Sep 20, 2012 8:50 PM Flag

    Crayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy..... Good deal. I hope this means the big installation is going well. Let's see how this trades the next few days.

  • Reply to

    Where did every one go?

    by darrel812 Jul 26, 2012 2:54 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Sep 14, 2012 2:21 AM Flag

    I have to say yesterday's ThinkEquity presentation was first class. It was stacked with useful information and Paul spoke confidently and brilliantly.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Where did every one go?

    by darrel812 Jul 26, 2012 2:54 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Aug 1, 2012 12:33 AM Flag

    No idea, but today's earnings results were good. I wonder if we get a big pop tomorrow or if the market will yawn. We've had two breakaway gaps and the stock has looked strong even when the market has been weak.

  • Reply to

    SGI gets smashed

    by hackasackahack May 10, 2012 7:16 PM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Jun 19, 2012 4:52 PM Flag

    Need a bit more volume but nice to see $12 intraday today. Go Cray go!

  • Reply to

    SGI gets smashed

    by hackasackahack May 10, 2012 7:16 PM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Jun 11, 2012 10:20 AM Flag

    Well, so far, so good. CRAY held that second gap beautifully as the market fell. Today, it's hitting a 52-week high. I still say the stock looks dirt cheap from a valuation perspective. Go CRAY!

  • Reply to

    SGI gets smashed

    by hackasackahack May 10, 2012 7:16 PM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack May 10, 2012 9:08 PM Flag

    Oh, please. Just because I did not read the release, did not mean I did not scan the headlines: I knew the reason, I just did not delve in the minutiae.

    And I'll happily take the criticism but then so should you for making such profoundly prescient prognostications as what you said on May 1 about the stock falling below 10 and ending the week below 9. That proved amateurish and comically wrong:

    "close today below $10... 1-May-12 06:32 pm
    ...this week below $9"

    I'm aware of the implications of large orders and, for SGI, product-version-related delays. What I wanted to contrast was that while SGI was sinking like a rock, CRAY was holding tight after a couple of sizable gaps, both coming one after another in short order, both for different reasons. That's incredibly rare, not just for CRAY, but for any stock.

    No need to go all that way back to so long ago. In Janunary, CRAY tanked after they warned. What's different is that the volume that day was relatively muted at around 550,000 shares or about, perhaps, 2 times average volume at the time. When SGI tanked today it fell on 7.5 million shares and over 10 times average volume. When CRAY fell, it rebounded in short order -- the market "knew" it was not an intractable problem. Let's see if SGI rebounds. If so then this was an overreaction. But when volume is this high, something more ominous is happening. I don't know; but time will tell.

    What's most important to me is that the big boys aren't selling CRAY and are, indeed, likely accumulating. At least, so far. If it holds for a few more weeks, it's in ridiculously good shape. If not, it's still buttressed by a boatload of cash on the balance sheet.

  • hackasackahack by hackasackahack May 10, 2012 7:16 PM Flag

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=sgi&ql=1

    I did not look into the earnings release but with this kind of volume and this kind of collapse it must have been fugly.

    By contrast, CRAY continues to hold after two huge gaps, both coming in short order no less.

  • Reply to

    Cray: Intel buys in desperation! huge premuium

    by mondayfriday99 Apr 26, 2012 10:42 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Apr 26, 2012 11:15 PM Flag

    Typo: That 360 million should be 460 million.

  • Reply to

    Cray: Intel buys in desperation! huge premuium

    by mondayfriday99 Apr 26, 2012 10:42 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Apr 26, 2012 9:03 PM Flag

    If they earn 72c this year, and their new businesses are as successful as they appear to be, what should their stock price be?

    If we remove the $7 in cash after Intel (really much more) and take out roughly say 1c for the current cash impact of cash on eps, the operating activities of the business are generating 71c in eps this year. At a market price of $9 per share, removing cash, the business is valued at $2. Dividing this by 71c in eps, the effective P/E is about 3.

    That's kinda silly, even for a lumpy business. In any case, if the new businesses take off that would remove part of the lumpiness.

    Even something low like (say) a P/E of 10 gets you to about $7 for the operating activities of the business. Add that to the $7 of cash post Intel and you get $14 for the stock price.

    Before the Intel announcement, the stock was at around $7, trading at a P/E of around 15. If I apply this 15 P/E to the 71c in earnings, I get around $11. Add back the conservative $7 in cash and I get $18.

    In almost every conceivable way that I can think of the stock looks dirt cheap. This thing's going to soar.

  • Reply to

    Cray: Intel buys in desperation! huge premuium

    by mondayfriday99 Apr 26, 2012 10:42 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Apr 26, 2012 8:44 PM Flag

    Based on the conference call, I think earnings estimates have to go up 65-85% percent this year, from 44c to 72c or 82c or even more.

    At the midpoint of their guidance, they'll have 40 million more in revenue than the average analyst estimate. At 40% gross margins and marginal increases in operating costs which I will ignore (and which they hinted at as being small) that's 16 million extra in operating profit. Take away 40% of this for phantom accounting income taxes and that's about 10 million in extra profit for the year. Dividing this by 36 million shares and that's 28 c more in earnings, about a 65% increase in diluted eps over average analyst earnings estimates this year.

    Similarly, if they hit 360 million, they get about 38 c more in eps, about an 85% increase in diulted eps over average analyst earnings estimates this year.

    Estimates could go even higher if the business continues to surprise or operational efficiency improves, but let's not go there right now. A 65 - 85% increase in average analyst estimates is a blowout.

  • Reply to

    Cray: Intel buys in desperation! huge premuium

    by mondayfriday99 Apr 26, 2012 10:42 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Apr 26, 2012 5:54 PM Flag

    I just finished listening to the conference call: Expect this thing to soar.

    Not only does a simple book value + Intel cash approach prove that the company is essentially free (floor of about $8.50), but their new investments are going gangbusters. That's some seriously impressive increase to guidance.

    If I tack on the benefit of the new businesses, I can easily justify around $13 and that too is being quite conservative.

    This thing might start trending in a very attractive way for an extended period: up and to the right, 45 degrees.

  • Reply to

    Cray: Intel buys in desperation! huge premuium

    by mondayfriday99 Apr 26, 2012 10:42 AM
    hackasackahack hackasackahack Apr 26, 2012 3:54 PM Flag

    Here's one more way of looking at it.

    Consider the stock price before the transaction, of (say) about 7.50 a share. That's about 263 million. Take away the 167 million in book value and the future operating value of the company was $96 million (still comical). Add this to the approximately $300 million in book value after the transaction and the total value becomes 396 million or (say) 400 million, equivalent to a stock price of about $11.50.

    That's about a 30% return from today's price, with in my opinion very little risk.

    I did bump up my (smallish) position 25% more after the earlier post.

CRAY
26.245-0.025(-0.10%)12:36 PMEDT