actually FY14 revenues will come in around $250 mln as the company guided down for their final fiscal quarter. 30% revenue growth would calculate to $325 mln vs the $316 mln current analyst consensus estimate which does not include any revenues from the ADI acquisition - it is fair to assume that the revenues acquired from ADI will be above $9 mln in FY15 so in fact the company is guiding DOWN vs. current expectations
very orderly sell off as CEO liquidates his stake relentlessly - would look for further selling pressure into the close and tomorrow - still expect the stock to close the gap almost completely
stock is coming in at expected as investors digest the well masked revenue and guidance miss - given the giant run I don't think the stock will turn red today anymore.
clearly the company has severe growth issues - would expect multiple downgrades
lol lol lol - this won't reach $12 for the foreseeable future - actually it is pretty clear that they are failing in acquiring new key customers while revenues become increasingly concentrated with Apple and Samsung. The company is placing big bets on current market leaders and their upcoming high end devices which doesn't look like a smart strategy given the disappointing sales reported by Apple and Samsung recently.
vs. expectations of 16% - given the ever decreasing growth I don't see why the stock should continue to trade at the current elevated valuation. Short.
will wait for the conference call as management usually gives guidance on the call but given the weakening growth prospects in the key software license segment I would clearly lean to the short side. Current valuation is entirely based on assumptions of superior growth which clearly isn't happening. Would expect roughly in line guidance. If they guide software revenue growth below 20% yoy the stock will sell off heavily.
they are just squeezing the final dollars out of the expense lines and try to upsell as much content into devices from existing customers which is an incredibly short sighted and risky strategy which will ultimately fire back at the company.
Admittedly the shares look cheap based on the company's margins and revenues projections but at least I don't buy the latter one and I doubt that educated institutional investors will. And given the obvious strategy missteps I would avoid the stock entirely.
What will they do in 2015 after all low hanging fruits have been harvested ? Management failed to give any impression on the call.
revenues and eps came in higher than expected but it is important to note that the growth trajectory continues to decrease - software revenues are up 20% yoy compared to 23% last quarter - would expect analysts to ask questions about this development during the call
"sold seven stores in a secondary market to certain investors" - when asked about the item on the call. Management explained there were "associated costs with the sale of the stores which were buried somewhere else in the income statement"
actually you should be thankful that the analysts took down their numbers so much after the company issued dismal revenue and gross margin guidance three months ago.
a look at the Apple guidance should make things pretty clear I guess. Apple's sales will be below expectations so Cirrus will follow suit. Add the lower dollar content caused by recent socket losses and you will arrive at today's guidance.
Would expect the stock to trade up somewhat initially on positive analyst comments with regards to gross margins but should come in later in the session as institutional investors will start to unload shares into the strength given that there are no short term catalysts for the stock price to increase further and in fact there will be some well justified doubts about the company's revenue projections. Would expect the stock to close mildly in the red at around $4.65.
company is basically fooling investors by harvesting some low hanging gross margin fruits while losing out with regards to the acquisition of new customers. Moreover nearly all of the projected revenue increase in 2014 looks to come from increasing product content in high end smartphones.
Clearly RFMD won't be able to go down this path much longer as it will become increasingly difficult to expand margins while growing revenues just slightly (which remains yet to be seen given that they are betting on the mostly saturated side of the smartphone market for this increase to happen). And it will be equally difficult to win even more dollar content with these existing customers as they already expanded these metrics sizeable in 2013.
The company needs to focus on new customer wins with emerging smartphone market leaders like LG, Huawei, Lenovo or ZTE or even Sony instead of squeezing the final dollars out of the existing customer base.
While ongoing margin progress and increasing penetration with major customers clearly deserve some kudos these achievements mask the fact that the customer concentration caused a massive revenue miss last quarter and will lead to another one for the current quarter with margin expansion not enough this time to save the eps number.
Even worse the company is placing another major bet on the high-end smartphone market mostly for the second half of the year which clearly points to the IPhone 6 release in autumn. Given the increasing saturation of the high-end segment as evidenced by very weak numbers from both Apple and Samsung one might doubt that new devices will appeal as much to customers as they did one or two years ago.
So management's guidance should be taken with a grain of salt here - if just one of the upcoming flagship smartphones from both Apple and Samsung will underperform expectations RFMD might very well end up the year with flat revenues which is simply unacceptable given that their end markets are still up
tempered FY revenue expectations
still no customer diversification in sight
clearly analyst estimates will have to be cut further going forward making the stock even more expensive than it is already.
which obviously will be the Samsung Galaxy S5 and the Apple IPhone 6 - given the increasing saturation in the high end smartphone market there's a great chance that at least the S5 will be a huge disappointment with revenues for the year coming in well below forecast - AGAIN.