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Apollo Education Group, Inc. Message Board

hageneriksson 546 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Oct 13, 2009
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  • Reply to

    And the upgrades begin...with BofA/Merrill

    by newelectricfan Oct 24, 2014 7:35 AM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 24, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    changed plans - sold out for breakeven and shorted because of expectations of a weak trading pattern today

    will cover the short and go long again at session end

  • Reply to

    And the upgrades begin...with BofA/Merrill

    by newelectricfan Oct 24, 2014 7:35 AM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 24, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    had hoped for some upgrades and a huge short squeeze which clearly won't happen now - but I will hold on to the shares anyway.

  • Reply to

    And the upgrades begin...with BofA/Merrill

    by newelectricfan Oct 24, 2014 7:35 AM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 24, 2014 8:08 AM Flag

    disappointing though - only ONE upgrade to neutral is far below my expectations for today

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 24, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    I really wouldn't want to own shares of a company with that kind of management.

    They intentionally concealed a huge miss in the earnings press release and made it appear like a big beat.

    They are virtually incapable to answer even the most simple analyst questions.

    They have been promising margin improvements for several quarters now just to make things even worse each quarter.

    They are promising improvements again and at the same time talk about new competitive pricing pressures.

    They are happy about the Frozen windfall and on the other hand have to pay penalties because of the cannibalization of other Disney products which fail to make their agreed minimum revenue contributions.

    After the huge sell off some investors are now hoping for a takeover - the company has turned down approaches in the past (when the company was on much more solid footing) as I guess current management is anxious to never get a job anywhere else.

    It is hard to imagine that things will be better in 2015 (actually I suspect them to be much worse) so I don't see why anyone should reach out for the company at this point just because the price is down 12% and a one time Frozen windfall is masking the severe problems of the company.

  • Reply to

    Just listened to the CC

    by aeishh Oct 23, 2014 3:26 PM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    (1)
    Management has been promising margin improvements for several quarters now just to deliver even worse results form quarter to quarter. Clearly investors and analysts don't buy this story anymore.

    (2)
    Including the extraordinary gain in the reported eps number within the pr is just inexcusable as investors and analysts were intentionally mislead. Bad move but initially successful with the shares up 20% in pre-market.

    (3)
    CEO and CFO refused to clarify reported numbers and actually made things even worse by rebuffing analysts. This is the second time in a row this has happened on the conference call.

    (4)
    Clearly investors and analysts are worried about next year with most of the current Frozen hype gone then. Even slight revenue and earnings growth would be pretty difficult to achieve given the ongoing problems the company is facing.

    (5)
    Management cited increased competition as another reason for margin pressures. No investor wants to hear about even more problems.

    These are the main reasons the shares have reversed course today and won't go up much going into next quarter's earnings release as investors fear more bad news going into 2015. With major earnings or revenue growth seemingly illusive the only reason for investors to stay with the shares might be an acquisition bet. The company has turned down such approaches in the past so I would doubt that this will happen anytime soon.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    Agree - except for the very poor service provider market results and ongoing weak product sales in general (the outperformance was mainly service related) - otherwise very solid execution and outlook although somewhat helped by the seasonally strong federal business. Revenue remains heavily concentrated in North America for now.

    The shares look VERY cheap here trading at below $250 mln enterprise value (using today's closing price) and $4 in cash with no debt. This looks like one of the best deals in today's market especially when looking at the renewed revenue growth.

    If the company will be able to exceed expectations again by a wide margin next quarter (which seems a real possibility) the stock might be easily double from here.

    I am willing to take the bet here and bought 25k shares just below $13.50 in after hours. Hoping for some upgrades tomorrow or next week.

  • Reply to

    I am speechless

    by tvhomer88 Oct 23, 2014 10:53 AM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    that's not bad - but they upped the revenue guidance range by almost $100 mln and and all they get out of this great demand (mainly Frozen) is $8 mln more EBITDA - that's why analysts and investors were scratching their heads - and the implications of the revenue and margin issues for 2015 once the current Frozen tailwinds are history

  • Reply to

    Just shorts, this is a buy

    by fiberbull Oct 23, 2014 1:22 PM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    sorry - I was on the call, too - and it went even worse than last time - why not giving out the 9-month-EBITDA number? Why did the CEO and the CFO not get the most simple analyst questions ?

    I have been on thousands of conference calls over the last 15 years and both the Q2 and the Q3 JAKK calls made in into my personal Top 20 of the worst conference calls of all time. So much for that.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    Nonsense - as a daytrader I shorted 10k shares in pre-market after discovering the margin issues and covered them sometimes later for a great gain. I reshorted 20k shares after the stock didn't manage to reclaim the $8 level and will close out the position at the end of the day regardless what happens.

    So my turnover will be at least 60k shares - I know about a dozen fellow daytraders who also were active in the shares today and there will be many many more. So most of todays' shares will actually have changed hands several times intraday at session end.

    Finally stop the always the same conspiracy nonsense and accept reality. Earnings looked decent but in fact were of poor quality. Guidance looked even better but management screwed things up on the conference call. Traders are pouring in for some scalp gains while disappointed investors are heading for the exit.

    Some contrary guys might be buying today in hope for a takeover which won't happen anytime soon. Perhaps some activist investor might show up over time but today there's no one showing up so far.

  • Reply to

    Just shorts, this is a buy

    by fiberbull Oct 23, 2014 1:22 PM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    There's no manipulation - today's call was just another disaster making investors feeling uncomfortable holding the stock going forward. With margins weakening almost every quarter despite higher sales levels there is ample cause for concern. Management having no clues about accounting doesn't make things better here. And the Frozen windfall won't repeat at the current magnitude. Even worse the Frozen success cannbalizes other Disney brands which accordingly fail to make agreed minimum sales levels causing penalties on that product lines, further pressuring margins. So even the Frozen success isn't all that great here.

    As an investor I wouldn't want to own a company with a clueless management, ongoing margin issues and a difficult future outlook. And that's why the shares are selling off today.

  • Reply to

    for better or worse....I added a bunch in the 7s

    by hopeful200 Oct 23, 2014 10:32 AM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Actually I would be much more concerned about the upcoming FY2015 - while management sounded optimistic analysts clearly were not. With yoy comparisons sky high thanks to the Frozen effect Jakks problems will only get more pronounced. To make things worse management on the call indicated severe price pressure in many product lines due to competition.

  • Reply to

    I am speechless

    by tvhomer88 Oct 23, 2014 10:53 AM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    lol - "who in the would wants to own the shares" it should read

  • Reply to

    I am speechless

    by tvhomer88 Oct 23, 2014 10:53 AM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Yes - I already explained it in several posts - the results were inflated by a $6 mln accounting gain caused actually by the severe UNDERPERFORMANCE of their recent MAUI acquisition vs. initial expectations (so they don't have to pay that 6 mln earnout). So the true eps number looks closer to $0.80 to 0.90 which in fact is a sizeable miss especially when taking into account the huge revenue outperformance. So margins took another hit during the quarter and were in fact a far cry from the 30%+ target communicated by management. There were several more negatives on the call, for example guaranteed license revenue penalties across most product lines, the cannibalization of other disney products caused by the Frozen line, management's reluctance (or perhaps cluelessness) to dig deeper into their accounting for several extraordinary and ordinary issues etc.

    Analysts on the call were again puzzled by management's answers (very much like the last call) and I don't think they will advise their clients to buy the weakness.

    Regarding the current Frozen outperformance: Like every hype the current Frozen revenues aren't sustainable and won't repeat in the current magnitude as soon as next year - so analysts on the call were pretty concerned about 2015 with JAKK having difficulties to even hold the projected 2014 revenue levels.

    So there are really tough issues here on the company level that have taken hold for several quarters now and the ONLY lucky punch to cushion the disaster is actually Frozen which won't repeat in this magnitude next year. So with the winner gone and the losers here to stay who in the world won't own the shares ?

  • Reply to

    I am speechless

    by tvhomer88 Oct 23, 2014 10:53 AM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    actually the results are much weaker than they seem and the current revenue outperformance is almost solely caused by Frozen - once the frozen revenues have come back to normal the margin issues still persist

  • Reply to

    UP 1.29 in Pre Market & now down 60 cents!!!!!

    by imioud Oct 23, 2014 10:38 AM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    yes - I already explained it in several posts - the results were inflated by a $6 mln accounting gain actually caused actually by the severe UNDERPERFORMANCE of their recent MAUI acquisition vs. initial expectations. So the true eps number looks closer to $0.70 to 0.80 which in fact is a giant miss especially when taking into account the huge revenue outperformance. So margins took anothere hit during the quarter and were in fact a far cry from the 30%+ target communicated by management. There were several more negatives on the call, for example guaranteed license revenue penalties across most product lines, the cannibalization of other disney products caused by the Frozen line, management's reluctance (or perhaps cluelessness) to dig deeper into their accounting for several extraordinary and ordinary issues etc.

    Even worse the upside guidance seems almost solely caused by the current Frozen hype which will be gone next year so it is hard to imagine how the company will be able to grow revenues and earnings in 2015.

    Analysts on the call were again puzzled by management's answers (very much like the last call) and I don't think they will advise their clients to buy the weakness.

    The shares remain uninvestable given the ongoing issues, incapable management' and near term revenue outperformance almost solely a windfall of the Frozen hype.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    yeah baby - another great call

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    take a look at my comments - I was smart in pre-market and discovered the margin issues when most idiots only looked at the guidance increase and I predicted what would happen during the call. I am sitting on five digit gains once gain here (just like last quarter) and will cover at around $7.50 later today

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Oct 23, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    do you listen to the ongoing call and the analyst comments ? I actually would be frightened to own the shares going into 2015 with comparisons much more difficult, ongoing margin issues and a management like the current one. The company is just reaping Frozen windfall profits and otherwise is a complete failure. Sell.

  • - license revenue shortfall payments across the line including Disney products
    - MAUI acquisition underperforms on targets
    - $6 mln extraordinary gain on MAUI not achieving earnout targerts
    - Frozen cannibalizes other Disney products
    - Management does not give out first nine month EBITDA number
    - gross margin nothing but a shame

    this call is even better than the last time - would fully expect shares to go red this morning

APOL
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