Actually he is right - analysts were pretty disappointed about the "leveling" comment in the shareholder letter and on the call management was pretty reluctant to get into details about that but it seems quite easy to conclude that the higher Q1 guidance is just a timing issue and no additional demand. Would expect the shares to give up some ground this morning, perhaps as much as 10% given that the shares look priced for perfection here.
Piper and Northland raised estimates and price targets somewhat but that's it. I am short the shares as usual on earnings as the "leveling" comment in the shareholder letter makes it pretty clear the Cirrus does not see any additional demand but rather experiences time shifts in order patterns.
It won't. Why should they by the way ? The higher Q1 revenue projectione are obviously just a shifting in order patterns. Would expect shares to be down at least 10% this morning given that the shares were trading at multi-year-highs before the release.
easy money as almost always with CRUS - the shares will have a hard time moving to new highs as there are no catalysts for the rest of the year.
Actually their EPS would be even better they more they miss out on revenues as they are actually selling their products at a loss when calculating for accompanying services.
Moreover company threatens to evaluate significant investments to get into new business opportunities. I guess they should first record some profits and cash flows form their core business before wasting even more money.
With an ongoing quarterly cash burn around $10-15 million there won't be much money left for any kind of investment a few quarters out.
The shares look as worthless as ever here.
Obviously you don't know about the SFL cash sweep arrangement which will dwarf the rates earned by FRO compared to NAT. And obviously you don't know about the 25% dilution Frontline shareholders suffered from the company making excessive use of their ATM facility. They are printing around half a million new shares each day currently and selling them into the open market.
Current analyst consensus for Q1 is way too high, earnings will come in far below those estimates in fact.
Not really as in fact I have done my dd while you obviously prefer to donate your private savings to JF.
that's just plain wrong - given the strong tanker market that started in Q4 the company could have easily rolled over the upcoming debt maturity or taken on some short term bank debt secured by their stake in Frontline 2012 and already locked in cash flows from the new day rate environment. Actually they even increased their ATM placements to a new high AFTER the convert was paid back, so the share placements are solely to suck out cash out of investors pockets
Would expect downgrades tomorrow. Gross margins took a huge hit and the company does not expect them to improve materially for the rest of the year. Analysts will have to lower their estimates pretty significantly.
Even for the whole month of April one out of five shares was sold by Frontline so if you think they just sold shares until the convert was paid in Mid-April you are wrong as clearly it is not possible that 2 out of 3 shares traded on the exchange were sold by Frontline during the first two weeks of April. The share price would have been much lower then.
And of course they are continuing to sell shares into the open market. Wait until the start of June to learn more about it.
You might end up with close to nothing as early as 2016. There's little to no value in the shares and that's why management is flooding the market with freshly printed shares each day.
That's wrong again of course. The shares are sold into the open market by the placement agent. Actually that's the difference between an ATM and a private placement...
Actually it is a pretty weak piece of work by an author new to seekingalpha. I wouldn't expect any pressure on the shares today.