so what about EBITDA break-even in Q4 ? And you should notice that Q4 will look great compared to the upcoming Q1
using the Sunetric acquisition the 50-55 MW guidance might finally become achieveable here :-)
but seriously: the company has never lived up to any of managements' promises - so why should we think the future will change this fact ?
this is the PLUG of solar investing and in both cases investors will get absolutely killed as the year progresses
I guess I will leave the cluelessness for you. I am still happily short the shares which will go MUCH lower over the next few weeks - with another capital raise and another dismal quarterly report looming there won't be many buyers around I guess. Actually this is one of the best stocks to shortsell these days (a shame that there so little shares to borrow).
if Sunetric would own a pristine balance sheet the price tag would have been somewhat higher - actually it is the desperate need for working capital and the unwillingness of banks to provide financing which kills those privately held installers. And be sure RGSE management would have touted any news about no debt and plenty of cash like they did with the Mercury acquisition - only to disclose much later that their revenues went down 60% yoy.
so expect some debt to come onto RGSE's balance sheet following the closing of the acquisition
I don't believe in their projections at all - we will see how the year plays out, but here are my projections:
- full year revenues below $30 mln
- a break-even result at best but most likely a sizeable loss
- a capital raise in the ballpark of $10 to $20 mln pretty soon
- the stock price to be below $3 at year end
and they want more of your money - huge secondary filed today... great timing after the stock was at $70 a few weeks ago
who cares what the share price is - JKS stock is at $27 and still the company looks much cheaper on absolutely every metric out there. So why owning shares of embattled Renesola here when really cheap quality is just around the corner.
Ed Schwartz kicked management's butts big time and for great reasons I guess - complaining about ongoing poor performance, underdelivering on cost savings and management's reluctance to give out any sort of useful guidance as well as the underwhelming performance of the easypark product
In reaction the stock experienced an equally well deserved decline today. Wouldn't touch the shares until the company starts to show some traction on the sales side finally (which I do not foresee in 2014).
Pretty much the same story like CRDS here so far - lot's of premature praise of "Eberwein investing" but nothing tangible when it comes to product revenues. Sell.
Managment denied the need for fresh money on the call but clearly things don't add up here given how they touted their ability to win large projects. I am pretty sure they will take the chance and use the inflated share price to take in some $10 mln within a few weeks.
Obviously they are interested in keeping the share price up when they are announcing those alleged deals without any details yet available.
just check the times and sales in the minutes before the posting...
that's why your net worth is falling every day you are keeping the shares - the need to use subcontractors is cutting into gross margins by around 20 to 25% which will have a huge impact on the bottom line. Additionally the company is facing lawsuits for not disclosing the investigation properly and last but not least there might be some retroactive fines being imposed.
Altogether these developments create plenty of uncertainty which makes the stock uninvestable for institutional investors and leaves the shares for uneducated retailers only.
covered 2/3 for an almost five digit gain within a few hours - willing to hold some short for the upcoming capital raise
the timing of the announcement is just too suspicous here...I don't think there's much credibility in management's projections for the upcoming year.
but the short seems to work anyway as investors will prepare for an upcoming capital raise given the miniscule cash position and the significant cash outlays the company faces while working on some bigger contracts.
shorted another 5k here as the stock looks pretty weak now
here's the relevant part from the transcript:
"So, for our in-house production, our gross margin will be around 15% and for OEM production, it's a little bit lower, around 11% to 12%."
so with OEM gross margins coming in up to 25% lower than in-house production this means a very significant hit to the overall bottom line given that US-shipments were 27% of overall shipments last quarter. This will push the company into an overall net loss for 2014
oh - sorry - that is the one that stands out here - but wouldn't consider a long position in JKS either as the shares move with the overall solar space which in fact is way ahead of fundamentals.
can't remember losing a single cent on this one - but I was badly wrong in predicting the share price development regarding GTAT. Your point.
they just reaffirmed their shipment guidance - which in fact no one has doubted given the option for OEM manufacturing
the problem is with the sigificantly reduced gross margin for OEM production and the possibility of retroactive fines
this will be sub $1 in a few weeks