so research should be excluded from the ordinary costs of business ? perhaps we should exclude other costs as well like the $1.6 mln in annual management compensation for example.
and guess what ? Research expenses are already forecasted to stay at elevated levels going forward so you will have to continue to exclude them.
so what do you think where future revenues might come from - perhaps out of the same hot air management and some seeking alpha pumpers have created ? This is no book-and-ship business - 3/4 of Q4 revenues were converted from backlog for example.
Moreover reported order intake for Q4 was $17.2 (just the orders reported via separate press releases) and just $11.2 mln for Q1 . Of course there will be some additional smaller order intake but given the fact that the company is announcing orders above $500k separately investors should not bet the house on a better Q1.
Actually given the significantly reduced backlog and the seemingly very weak order intake in Q1 I would bet that management will have an unpleasant time on tomorrow's conference call especially when it comes to Q1 guidance which should come in even below the really bad Q4.
And while the single analyst estimate on Yahoo finance is looking for just fractional improvements in top and bottom in FY14 I heavily doubt that the company will be able to get even close to these numbers given the poor business momentum.
Admittedly I have problems understanding why the stock went up 500% within the last few months given that their business is performing in the same mediocre way it did for the last several years. Current and projected financial results do not support today's valuation AT ALL. Actually I don't see any reason why the stock should be valued at more than 10 times projected earnings for 2014 which would calculate to a price target of $1.70.
This looks like the mother of all short selling opportunities - but at first I will carefully listen to tomorrow's conference call as I suspect management to put out another rosy earnings guidance for FY14 just to support the share price. If they do so I will be happily shorting into that buying frenzy which will be short lived of course given management's credibility regarding the last time they gave guidance.
Willing to place a real big bet against the shares.
remember the company raised guidance on 11/12/2013 with the quarter almost halfway through at that time - clearly management wanted to keep a stream of good news to support the increasing share price and overshoot badly. Gross margin increase seems the only positive in the news release.
backlog number looks even more disappointing here
Frankly I don't understand why this stock is up 500% within the last 12 months as there's really nothing spectacular going on with this company. Sell and don't look back.
after yielding huge short returns in 2013 this one once again looks to become one of my best trading vehicles this year. Like the shares for its trading patterns but highly dislike the company especially compared to its peers.
JKS higher enterprise value is solidly supported by its superior execution, margin performance and future earnings power - with the company in the process to establish a yieldco. for downstream projects valuation is set to increase even more
why don't you just reed my through my comments on this board and you might get an impression why no one does believe in management's projections going forward given that the current business model was called "unsustainable" by the CEO.
this is just utter nonsense
1. SOL has one of the highest exposures to the US market among its peers. Therefore the need to use OEM capacity will weigh heavily on margins going forward. Accordingly the stock got a well deserved kick in the butt.
2. Given the debt load Chinese solar companies carry on their balance sheets the market cap does say NOTHING about the real valuation of the company - you have to look at the enterprise value which calculates as net debt plus market cap. So enterprise value roughly calculates to $850 million here which doesn't look that cheap anymore I guess and that doesn't even account for the giant imbalance in accounts receivables and payables.
3. Tariffs will just benefit non-Chinese competitors so there won't be any impact to selling prices (just to margins for those who will be struck with tariffs)
4. The company actually gave an underwhelming Q1 outlook and an in-line shipment guidance which doesn't mean anything at this point. They will still lose money in 2014 which is a shame given that most competitors are forecasted to show huge profits.
Everyone should give up on this long term underperformer and switch to best of breed companies like Jinko Solar for example.
actuall those private boards are just an accumulation of perma-longs who don't like to be disturbed in their denial of reality.
things looking pretty good here - seems like I will be able to pocket a $35k gain today on the short position - but I have to admit that my short position in ICLD takes a big setback this morning as the stock is up 30% currently on another bogus news. Will short some more at the end of the day as this will inevitably come back all the way.
I don't expect it to go down to $8 but would be willing to cover the short at around $8.50 today - shorted another 10k now
yes - investors are starting to get uncomfortable in the numbers being put up by the management given that yesterday's contract announcement was just released to avoid a huge decline in the share price due to an absolutely dismal Q4.
this press release could have been witholded until management would have been able to provide at least some details to these contracts instead of releasing a stub announcement which clearly was issued for one single reason == keeping the stock price up at elevated levels in the near term
and if it is seemingly important for management to keep the share price high it looks quite clear to expect another secondary offering pretty soon.
And for management projections - I think there's little credibility to them
Here are my projections for FY14 again:
Revenues below $30 mln
earnings at break-even (at best)
so what is this path ? from my understanding they are going to do more of the same - new devices and plenty of hot air - and sizeable investments which will further cut into cash
nonsense - as everything about this company seems to be fabricated and fraudulent nobody will give a #$%$ about earnings
compared to their last call the CEO's performance was quite underwhelming as he offered absolutely no clue how the company will be able to reach his goal of becoming profitable gain within 15 months - and given the fact that cash burn for the last quarter alone was half a billion dollar and net cash is down to just slightly above one billion I am wondering how long the company will be able to stay afloat with seemingly still no strategy in place for survival.
happily going to increase my short position if this one shows a sizeable pop - how credible is an "thoroughly investigation" lasting for exactly two days ? These fraudsters are pretty close to getting their covers blowed.
I guess everyone has to admit that NOBODY who takes allegiations seriously would conclude an thoroughly investigation within two days.
This is just another fabricated fraudulent Munro move.