While I have no doubt about the company filing for chapter 11 within the next few weeks it looks pretty unlikely that the rigs will be sold then. Actually the company will use that time to negotiate a deal (perhaps a deal will be pre-negotiated like HERO did) with their creditors and other parties like the Cobalt Explorer shipyard and of course Petrobras now. Vantage will most likely emerge soon after that as a company with substantially lowered debt obligations and fresh cash to perhaps even take advantage of other distressed drillers. Shareholders will be holding the bag then of course.
I don't see why this should matter. The company will have to deal mainly with the highest ranking creditors in bankruptcy. No creditor would want to sell high spec drill ships into a non-existing market.
Given the obvious bribery involved in signing this contract I guess Petrobras will most likely have a strong case in court. Anyway the cash flows will be gone for the foreseeable future and the soon to be idle Titanium Explorer will now cause huge costs instead of bringing in baldy needed cash.
The loss of the contract should lead to a chapter 11 filing withing weeks.
"in response to third-party initiated expressions of interest, the Company's Board of Directors has engaged Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC to conduct a review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value"
Don't let Alan fool you another time. There's no third-party interest. They just want to sell more shares into the open market using their ATM agreement with Cantor and get some more money out of the Lincoln Park equity line.
Short as much you can once the stock re-opens.
Still drilling I guess. The most likely outcome might be a substantially reduced day rate after all.
There will be no offer. It is just another manipulation by Alan to print more shares at a better price.
Well the costs for hiring Morgan Stanley will be pretty real of course but I would hold every bet that there have been no impressions of interest from third parties. But that's a very elastic term actually...
Well - they have hired them for sure and told them to look for strategic alternatives but most people doubt they have any kind of buyout interest on the table. This will only add to cash losses and nothing else.
Well, the history of the company should have taught you that NOTHING the company has ever announced DID COME TRUE.
At least the idiot is already up almost 20% shorting the initial run-up. Given the history of the company shorting ANY news is like printing money. I have done that many times in the past and never lost. The last time when they announced their "multifaceted financing strategy" a few weeks ago.
VTG doesn't have the time. Petrobras will stop payments immediately and wait for things to unfold. Perhaps if VTG agrees to a very substantially lowered dayrate they might be able to keep the contract. I would expect Petrobras to succeed in arbitration given the bribery issue.
Anyway VTG is done with this news. They are losing more than $15 mln in monthly cash flows and at least for the short term still have the costs to bear. Chapter 11 will be filed within days.
They actually increased the lower end of their revenue guidance for the full year but the guidance for next quarter is below current analyst expectations. I wouldn't give much about those quarterly revenue shifts. The company still looks firmly on track to deliver on their full year projections. I am a buyer after hours.
up $1 during the conference call as expected as there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the business. Would expect positive analyst commentary tomorrow.
- CFO resigns for no obvious reasons (no other opportunity)
- increased revenues mainly a function of the current product upgrade cycle
- in fact APAC region fell short of expectations
- company now hastily hiring new salespeople (up to 70 planned for next quarter) to fill in the gap after the product upgrade cycle is going to end in H2/2016 with huge implications for operating margins going forward
- margins to stay roughly flat in 2016 due to the above mentioned investments in the business
The company has little visibility beyond the current product upgrade cycle. The hiring of that much new salespeople might lead to integration issues and for sure balloons the company's costs. CFO loss is a huge issue here. Would expect the shares to go red tomorrow following cautious analyst commentary.
No. I just pointed out that he decided to leave without a better opportunity in sight. That's rare and in most of these cases the best explanation is that he does not want to work under the CEO. As the CEO is new this make the suggestion even more credible. The guy has been at the helm of the finance department for eleven years so I think investors will be scared by this move.
Yes. But thats because of the upgrade cycle. I didn't dispute that. But in fact new customer additions fell short of expectations and APAC sales fell also short.
Yes. I didn't dispute that. It is still a very minor part of the business though.
Hiring is mostly in the sales organization as explained on the conference call (up to 50% of all new additions) but in fact my number of 70 for the next quarter was outright nonsense. The real number of new sales additions will be closer to 30 at the very best.
Yes. That's what they said.
No. There's no visibility into revenues beyond the current upgrade cycle, new customer additions were below expectations, APAC region fell also short, operating margin will take a step back due to aggressive investing which is planned to help to overcome the product upgrade cycle cliff. CFO leaving for no obvious reasons.
In my view these are the perfect ingredients for a formerly red hot growth stock to attract shortsellers and to give longs a level of uncertainty about the future of the company that will be more than enough to make them exit their positions. Indeed I entered a short position in after hours. Would expect very cautious analyst commentary and the shares to move down double digits.
Security sales were down 20% qoq by the way. Very bad.
Analysts aren't happy as expected:
UBS maintained a Neutral rating on Infoblox (NYSE: BLOX), and cut the price target to $22.00 (from $27.00), following the company's 4Q15 earnings results. BLOX reported F4Q Rev/EPS at $87m/$0.12, ahead of consensus estimates at 81m/$0.10.
Analyst Amitabh Passi commented, "BLOX reported F4Q Rev/EPS at $87m/$0.12, ahead of UBS/Cons estimates at $80-81m/$0.10. The sales outperformance was attributed primarily to the “-A” refresh cycle, with 6 out of the top 10 deals (all $1m+ deals) involving a refresh. The benefit of the refresh is expected to persist at least through year-end 2015. We believe security sales were ~$8m, down ~$2m q/q. Given strong sales in F4Q and ongoing product refresh, we find the flat q/q sales guide for F1Q conservative (along with GM guidance). Going forward, mgmt still believes BLOX can grow 20%+, and foresees investments (including 50-60 hires in F1Q, mostly in sales) to support that growth. BLOX once again added ~150-200 customers in F4Q, and we’d like to see acceleration in this metric for us to get more constructive. We maintain Neutral, and continue to gauge the long-term opportunity beyond the refresh cycle especially as we head into C1H16."
another very good call