Recon Technology, Ltd. (RCON) Message Board

you must be joking - just tell me one single example when Apple (or another major mobile phone company) has ever bought an exchangeable mass product supplier. Actually there's a simple reason to not have the supply chain in house - it doesn't make sense. Integrating a supplier means taking r&d costs in house and being chained to just one solution which might become outdated or not best of breed quite soon. So there's no way your dream will come true. Just switch to Apple if you think the company will do fine. At least they can't be designed out of their own products.

I don't think there will be a low cost IPhone anytime soon at least not in FY13 - therefore CRUS won't have the benefit of additional volumes this year. Going further I don't think it would make sense for Apple to offer an IPhone "light" which most likely would only cannibalize the high end devices (just like the IPad Mini is killing the IPad currently) - with the size of the display most likely to be the same in the IPhone and an potential IPhone light there won't be any real product differentiation. While Apple could offer these cheaper phones only to emerging markets these Phones will most likely find its way into other economies as well. Actually I see no reason for Apple to change its current approach with selling the older models 4 and 4S as entry level phones with the IPhone 5 soon to join the back catalogue as the 5S arrives. In fact Apple needs to differentiate its products by offering diverse (means larger) screen sizes just the way Samsung does. With the company still reluctant to offer a larger screen IPhone they will continue to lose market share.

Remember also that the production of a new entry level IPhone will most likely cause the cessation of older IPhone production, so a new revenue stream would just replace a lost revenue stream.

Anyway - even if Apple decides to offer a new entry level IPhone CRUS can't win here as this new product would heavily cannibalize the higher margin IPhones and pressure margins even more going forward.

If you still think Apple can right the ship going forward just buy Apple - at least they have several products to rely on and aren't dependent on just one major customer.

CRUS stock is a screaming sell right now, face it.

the stock remains uninvestable at this point as future revenue and earnings developments are entirely unclear - investors will continue to exit the stock as there is ZERO incentive to own it going forward. As long as Apple is losing big time CRUS will lose even more. Bad idea.

great company ??? being hostage to just one major customer doesn't make a great company I guess - but of course they are guilty of painting a way too bright picture of things in front of them for way too long. But the market didn't believe them anyway as seen by the poor share performance even without any news about margin pressures. This will be $10 next quarter and I will be happy to be short going into the release then.

you're ignorant or just plain dumb - if they would have lowered the margin by 18% the stock would be down around 70% to cash value I guess.

volume has come back to normal with the stock looking stable today - my $1.70 target doesn't look realistic here anymore - will cover tomorrow which might give the stock another lift given the poor volume.

trade is working well here - opened just slightly weaker but stock has been strengthening throughout the day with new 52-week-highs now close at hand. Nice.

it would be outright dumb from Apple if they would let CRUS to earn consistently better margins than Apple itself so over the medium term and assuming the Apple business will be largely unchanged going forward I would expect CRUS margins to come down to around 40% in FY15.

looks right but AERL might deserve a better valuation for being larger and having a Nasdaq listing - they are also paying a dividend to investors. For a better comparison you might want to look at Hongkong listed competitors like AMAX.

looking good here - bottom seems to be in - bought some

Stifel just revised FY14 to $1.74 (from around $3) which is in fact lower than FY13 - nobody knows about FY15 as of now but given the recent string of Apple missteps I would wonder if they will be able to improve margins and revenues going forward.

With revenues and margins in decline a FY14 pe of 10 looks meaningless here - stock should go down to around $10.

I don't know - who knows how margins will trend going forward if Apple passes on further product missteps to its suppliers ?

Clearly Apple will be the big loser in the tablet / smartphone arena going forward with desastrous consequences for companies like CRUS which rely solely on Apple as a meaningful customer.

At which gross margin percentage the company won't be able to record profits anymore ? 40% or 35% ? That would be just another Apple product failure away.

With sinking revenues and margins going forward I would view the stock as an ideal short here with a price target around liquidation value. This will be at $10 going into next quarter's earnings release. Analysts will have to take down their numbers big time and many of them will downgrade the stock.

as predicted now downgraded to hold at Stifel - up $1.30 from short entry already

revisiting the stock 80 minutes later - reached already 20% - currently down 15%

very uninspiring conference call - wouldn't expect to see additional buyers line up based on managment's comments - somewhat disappointing - will do nothing on the stock for now - this will take some more quarters to play out I guess

first question about rising commissions - will need to come down substantially going forward to even meet the low end of the net income guidance

volume picking up now, stock at new lows with market at day highs - will wait for conference call to decide on next action

no buyers stepping in so far which hints to more downside today - took my order down to $4.06