Adobe Systems Inc. Message Board

mark my words - this will be rather $10 than $23 going forward.

down below $17.30 - will stay short over the weekend at least - this wil be at $10 when the next earnings release is due

you will lose even more - as they are already lining up DIP financing the path to chapter 11 is crystal clear now

I don't care about your losses - same situation like CEDC a few weeks ago, but some people always prefer to lose it all rather than to lose just pretty much.

as predicted by me some weeks ago when the first debtwire article hit the stock - they will file for chapter 11 this summer

down to $17.50 - holding for $17 today

You can't ignore the fact that the stock is down 35% on giant volume with CH11 the only explanation making sense here. Face reality and take the loss before the stock drops to the low 20s or will be halted.

he is right - just wait for the news to trickle down to investors later today - volume and price movement are telling the story here as I have seen many times before

there will be no large move upwards going forward - just buy puts or short it

would use any uptick based on positive seekingalpha articles this morning to build / increase short positions in the stock, especially if the stock will be able to jump to the $18.50 level. There's simply no reason for educated investors to own the stock going forward with earnings and revenues on the decline and severe risks associated with the Apple relationship.

look no further as to slide nr. 18 in yesterday's investor presentation on their website:

"Revenue for fiscal year likely impacted by expected decline in
ASPs"

obviously the company was wrong just four weeks ago or they outright lied to investors back then.

85% of the current business is from Apple with that number fluctuating only by the amount of business Apple does with CRUS. The remaining business has been constantly weak and will stay weak for some more time going forward. If you would like to learn more about their revenue streams apart from Apple just look at yesterday's presentation on their website. This is still mainly a one customer story and this is firing back badly at the company now.

as a fabless company actually they are just booking capacity at TSM for anything Apple might order from them just like a potential competitor would do. So capacity isn't an issue here. Apple is just passing on margin pressures to its suppliers. The company also made clear that they will experience revenue pressures going forward which means there won't be any new volume orders from Apple this year.

as the discount applies to ALL current Apple phones I would rather see this as just a measure to prop up sell through in reaction to ever decreasing IPhone sales numbers. While nobody knows when the 5S will be finally coming to stores it is quite clear that the phone will offer nothing to make it more appealing to buyers than the original IPhone 5 as the screen size will remain the same.

you must be joking - just tell me one single example when Apple (or another major mobile phone company) has ever bought an exchangeable mass product supplier. Actually there's a simple reason to not have the supply chain in house - it doesn't make sense. Integrating a supplier means taking r&d costs in house and being chained to just one solution which might become outdated or not best of breed quite soon. So there's no way your dream will come true. Just switch to Apple if you think the company will do fine. At least they can't be designed out of their own products.

I don't think there will be a low cost IPhone anytime soon at least not in FY13 - therefore CRUS won't have the benefit of additional volumes this year. Going further I don't think it would make sense for Apple to offer an IPhone "light" which most likely would only cannibalize the high end devices (just like the IPad Mini is killing the IPad currently) - with the size of the display most likely to be the same in the IPhone and an potential IPhone light there won't be any real product differentiation. While Apple could offer these cheaper phones only to emerging markets these Phones will most likely find its way into other economies as well. Actually I see no reason for Apple to change its current approach with selling the older models 4 and 4S as entry level phones with the IPhone 5 soon to join the back catalogue as the 5S arrives. In fact Apple needs to differentiate its products by offering diverse (means larger) screen sizes just the way Samsung does. With the company still reluctant to offer a larger screen IPhone they will continue to lose market share.

Remember also that the production of a new entry level IPhone will most likely cause the cessation of older IPhone production, so a new revenue stream would just replace a lost revenue stream.

Anyway - even if Apple decides to offer a new entry level IPhone CRUS can't win here as this new product would heavily cannibalize the higher margin IPhones and pressure margins even more going forward.

If you still think Apple can right the ship going forward just buy Apple - at least they have several products to rely on and aren't dependent on just one major customer.

CRUS stock is a screaming sell right now, face it.

the stock remains uninvestable at this point as future revenue and earnings developments are entirely unclear - investors will continue to exit the stock as there is ZERO incentive to own it going forward. As long as Apple is losing big time CRUS will lose even more. Bad idea.