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Adobe Systems Inc. Message Board

hageneriksson 619 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Oct 13, 2009
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  • there are another $5.5 mln which the company DID NOT borrow so I guess they paid the money from their own cash balances. So with zero cash left on the balance sheet we should prepare for another equity offering pretty soon.

    even worse UEC management seemingly doesn't have much confidence in Arotech's managements' ability to further increase the share price as they demanded a whopping 7/8 of the purchase price in cash.

    bottom line:

    should be an interesting conference call - given the limited information currently available with regards to the acquisition this looks like a rather bad deal as it looks pretty expensive as well as dilutive from an eps perspective and puts the company heavily into debt.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Apr 1, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    Seemingly our are even more insane - they acquired a company, therefore estimates were raised

  • well done as management will be able to avoid giving guidance for Arotech as a standalone company (which would be painful for sure). Acquisition looks like nothing to write home about at this point - weak margins and limited scale do not look like there's much accretion. Shorting here.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Apr 1, 2014 8:18 AM Flag

    according to your theory I should have tried to talk the stock down since my short at $4 on this board - now look at how many postings I did on this board prior to yesterday

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Apr 1, 2014 7:42 AM Flag

    perhaps you should read again what I wrote yesterday - it would be outright dumb to short the stock before the conference call as management might very well chose to issue another set of rosy projections to save the share price from getting punished. Hopefully they do so as this will be the chance to get short the shares (hopefully there will shares to borrow left then).

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Apr 1, 2014 6:56 AM Flag

    forget your conspiracy bs - these are just the perfect ingredients for a giant sell-off. A massively overhyped stock, weak earnings, weak order intake, dismal backlog and management's credibility badly damaged after raising guidance being six weeks into Q4.

    after all the run-up of the shares is mostly the result of some seekingalpha pumpers who tried to put the company in a row with Tesla, Plug Power & Co. - once investors realize that there's absolutely nothing which Tesla and Arotech have in common the stock will move back to the trading range it has been over the last few years.

  • Reply to

    ARTX will tank big time

    by compd4d1224 Apr 1, 2014 6:02 AM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Apr 1, 2014 6:35 AM Flag

    you must be joking - this is a military only provider, their products aren't designed for the mass market.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    you should - the shares are heavily overhyped due to the battery segment which seemingly won't bring any tangible mass market products for years to come - if ever. This is a small military hardware provider which has been around for several years and only recently was picked up as a new energy hype stock - which is clearly not the case. Once investor figure out that they have been fooled by some smart seeking alpha pumpers this stock will move back all the way to the $2 area.

    if management doesn't show a superior performance on tomorrow's conference call with regards to guidance and explanations for the earnings miss, the diminishing backlog number and the weak order intake I would fully expect the shares to test the $4 mark tomorrow.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    looks like they successfully adopted the PLUG strategy of announcing upcoming deals several times

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 7:38 PM Flag

    I guess I am running a small hedge fund for myself given that 15 years as a daytrader helped me accumulate a significant amount of capital so far. I am specializing in short situations on overhyped or seemingly fraudulent companies (in most cases this goes hand in hand by the way). It needs some experience to not get burned by short squeezes but actually I am pretty disciplined in using narrow stops.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    management better give the right answers on the call and perhaps should put out a huge new order announcement and great 2014 guidance as well tomorrow morning otherwise the after hours decline will look very moderate tomorrow. If the call goes awry the share will drop 30%+ tomorrow given how overhyped the shares are at this point. I am really looking forward tom put up a short position during the call. Hopefully there will still be shares to borrow then.

  • Reply to

    Numbers do not make sense

    by mo.hansen Mar 31, 2014 6:48 PM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    because I suspect management to put out another set of overly optimistic projections for 2014 on the call just like they did the last time. This will cause the shares to reverse its losses for a short time frime in which I hope to put up the short.

    the shares should fall again once q&a on the call is started as I would expect management to be given a pretty hard time given the guidance miss and the highly concerning backlog number.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    got you point - putting the company alongside the TSLA, PLUG & Co. hype does make some sense given that the company has a small but slowly growing battery segment. But numbers DO matter even in hyped spaces like this - remember that PLUG's entire run has been based on increased order and backlog numbers which gave investors comfort that their technology might succeed finally.

    but looking at ARTX investors got this one totally wrong seemingly - this is a military only service and hardware provider. Their products do not apply for civil use. The company has been around for years without doing much except for putting out mediocre numbers (at best) and losing money. Seemingly these patterns won't change much going forward. Would expect the shares to move back to the $2 area once investors realize they picked the wrong company when betting on tomorrow's next big thing.

  • Reply to

    Numbers do not make sense

    by mo.hansen Mar 31, 2014 6:48 PM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 7:04 PM Flag

    yes - this looks quite easy. Management will point to some shipment delays in the battery segment which carries low margins. This would explain the margin and corresponding EBITDA upside despite revenues falling short of guided numbers.

    I wouldn't be too concerned regarding revenue variances from quarter to quarter but management should be able to forecast numbers when giving guidance being already six weeks into the quarter.

    But the MUCH bigger issue is the diminishing order backlog - it is down significantly both quarter over quarter and year over year. Moreover the order intake semingly weakens even more as separately announced orders above $500k went down big time from $17.2 mln in Q4 to just $11.2 mln in Q1 - so given these issues I don't expect the company to grow revenues in 2014 at all (actually I would rather expect them to be down vs. 2013).

    And to make things worse there will be ongoing margin pressure from high r&d expenses and product mix given the fact that the battery segment will be a somewhat bigger revenue contributor in 2014.

    So to me the single analyst estimate on Yahoo looks toast - in fact I would expect 2014 revenues to come in below the 2013 number and the management might praise itself lucky to reach break-even results on the bottom line.

    Will go short the shares tomorrow following the conference call - looking for the shares to fall close to 30% tomorrow (barring any great news on the cc) given the absurd overvaluation of this seemingly hyped stock.

    Sell.

  • Reply to

    extra 1.1 million on research

    by casstech1964 Mar 31, 2014 6:17 PM
    hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    so research should be excluded from the ordinary costs of business ? perhaps we should exclude other costs as well like the $1.6 mln in annual management compensation for example.

    and guess what ? Research expenses are already forecasted to stay at elevated levels going forward so you will have to continue to exclude them.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    so what do you think where future revenues might come from - perhaps out of the same hot air management and some seeking alpha pumpers have created ? This is no book-and-ship business - 3/4 of Q4 revenues were converted from backlog for example.

    Moreover reported order intake for Q4 was $17.2 (just the orders reported via separate press releases) and just $11.2 mln for Q1 . Of course there will be some additional smaller order intake but given the fact that the company is announcing orders above $500k separately investors should not bet the house on a better Q1.

    Actually given the significantly reduced backlog and the seemingly very weak order intake in Q1 I would bet that management will have an unpleasant time on tomorrow's conference call especially when it comes to Q1 guidance which should come in even below the really bad Q4.

    And while the single analyst estimate on Yahoo finance is looking for just fractional improvements in top and bottom in FY14 I heavily doubt that the company will be able to get even close to these numbers given the poor business momentum.

    Admittedly I have problems understanding why the stock went up 500% within the last few months given that their business is performing in the same mediocre way it did for the last several years. Current and projected financial results do not support today's valuation AT ALL. Actually I don't see any reason why the stock should be valued at more than 10 times projected earnings for 2014 which would calculate to a price target of $1.70.

    This looks like the mother of all short selling opportunities - but at first I will carefully listen to tomorrow's conference call as I suspect management to put out another rosy earnings guidance for FY14 just to support the share price. If they do so I will be happily shorting into that buying frenzy which will be short lived of course given management's credibility regarding the last time they gave guidance.

    Willing to place a real big bet against the shares.

  • remember the company raised guidance on 11/12/2013 with the quarter almost halfway through at that time - clearly management wanted to keep a stream of good news to support the increasing share price and overshoot badly. Gross margin increase seems the only positive in the news release.

    backlog number looks even more disappointing here

    Frankly I don't understand why this stock is up 500% within the last 12 months as there's really nothing spectacular going on with this company. Sell and don't look back.

  • after yielding huge short returns in 2013 this one once again looks to become one of my best trading vehicles this year. Like the shares for its trading patterns but highly dislike the company especially compared to its peers.

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    JKS higher enterprise value is solidly supported by its superior execution, margin performance and future earnings power - with the company in the process to establish a yieldco. for downstream projects valuation is set to increase even more

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Mar 31, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    why don't you just reed my through my comments on this board and you might get an impression why no one does believe in management's projections going forward given that the current business model was called "unsustainable" by the CEO.

ADBE
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