you don't get it - they are heavily overpaying for the new assets by issuing a giant amount of new shares, diluting your current share of the business almost beyond recognition. The ill-fated deal makes the new HSOL appear severely overvalued compared to its much healthier peer group and this leads to more people selling / shorting the shares. There's plenty of downside at these levels.
I guess this won't help CVEO if Saudi Arabia chooses to supply the markets with cheap oil for some more years to come.
The company won't be cash flow positive at the projected revenue levels. Cash will be eaten up by debt service and severance and other right-sizing requirements.
this is just plain dumb - the prolonged downturn of oil, iron ore and coal is putting severe pressure on the company's finances. And while the company hasn't exactly been overleveraged so far the new normal puts things in a different light. If conditions persist or even worsen the company might very well face bankruptcy over the longer term.
exactly as predicted - covering here from $6 after hours short - giant gain, a nice finish to 2014
yeah - read again and you might learn that NADL does not sell any oil at all.
The purchase price. Current HSOL owners are effectively ousted by the deal
HSH does not buy any shares here. They will be issued to them by HSOL in return for the transfer of the Q-Cells assets to HSOL. The problem is that the Q-Cells assets look overpriced by at least 3x times.
Accordingly the share prices is down 30% since the acquisition was announced so the present value of the deal is down to $800 mln but that's still way too expensive given that market leading peer TSL is solidly profitable, has 2x revenues, better margins and is trading at a $700 mln market cap vs. HSOL/Q-Cells at still more than $900 mln as of today.
There's still significant downside to the shares which might be fairly valued at around $0.50 currently at the very best.
severe guidance cut, dividend gone - this is just great, would expect another 50% haircut tomorrow
I shorted a significant amount of shares when the deal was announced and might add to the position as the numbers released today only confirm my initial take that the transaction is mainly done to eliminate outside shareholders.
it is pretty easy to extrapolate that the combined company will still lose significant amounts of money and will remain an underperformer compared to competition.
But the biggest problem remains the purchase price of the Q-Cells unit which looks overprized by at least three times. The new shares issued almost eliminate current HSOL shareholders (with the exception of the controlling shareholder of course).
What about results per 09/30/14 ? Would have been no problem but I guess things would look even worse then. There's nothing in today's set of data which justifies the takeover price for the Q-Cells business. The transaction is overprized by at least three times to the disadvantage of outside shareholders. Sell
would expect the shares at new 52-week-lows going into the next conference call. The board should consider some management reshuffling
There's NO growth in the overall business and management has done a bad job of overpromising and heavily underdelivering. Investors should avoid the shares.
the conference call was disappointing as they had to admit their false projections for the insurance business and refrained from giving any meaningful colour about next FY business trends making investors think they have no clue (again).
Management's ability to forecast the business looks pretty poor which is never a good sign.
Valuation looks stretched at almost 3x of revenues here. The overall business lacks growth and management seems to have no real idea how to accurately forecast a business. Bad sign.
Nothing new here at CAMP - management continues to overpromise and underdeliver - this time they finally had to admit that their projections for the insurance business were far from reality (actually they confirmed those expectations just a few weeks ago). This time the high end of the guidance doesn't even reach the current analyst consensus estimate. Satellite business continued its slow dying.
On a more positive note the core wireless datacom business looks quite healthy with increased gross margins and good cash flow.
But given management's ongoing inability to adequately forecast the business I would continue to avoid or even short the shares here as analysts at some point will lose patience with the company.
And given current analyst estimates for next FY I doubt that the company's forecast next quarter will be anywhere near that number.
Given the ongoing disappointing performance of some highly touted business units and the ongoing demise of the satellite business I wouldn't bet on any meaningful revenue growth next year.
Given the weak growth trajectory the shares look pretty extended here.
The won't buy back a single share of course.