12% interest rate, severe covenants, mortgaged the whole company, severe production issues at Mountain Pass, poor asps
a devastating call with analysts scratching their heads here - huge gain from after hours short
the usual blabla - he won't buy a single share and the shares will go lower - these days you don't have a business by slipping unwanted software to idio*s anymore
revenue guidance cut by a whopping 16% at the mid point. EBITDA guidance cut by 10%
while weak results and outlook were somewhat expected given the well known Google challenges the magnitude of the guidance cut is astonishing. For sure this will be a great call later today.
the call didn't go as management expected as analysts raised many questions about ar, gross margins, working capital needs and r&d costs so clearly I wouldn't expect too much excitement from the sell side today. Would expect the shares to end barely unchanged today and ENPH to announce a secondary offering pretty soon.
why - they got their shares for free or at least much less than the current share price - so why should they bother at all about the share price short term ? They can award themselves new shares at any time and be sure they will do so.
in the case of JVA there's no other way to value the company. As JVA has failed to show sustained profitability for many years now you can't use past quarter's eps numbers to extrapolate future earnings. And because the company is run solely by the Gordon brothers you can't sell the company either. Once they decide to retire JVA will close its doors. And finally there's no dividend left to calculate an annual return of investment for potential value investors. SELL.
the shares are still trading at almost 2x book value suggesting 50% more downside here - another quarter below expectations might finally bring the shares to the well deserved $3 level. After all JVA is nothing but a self-service outlet for the Gordon brothers with the exchange listing solely kept for the purpose of insider selling. Sell.
Uuuh - I have to apologize partly here - there is indeed a Goldman note out this afternoon calculating non-GAAP eps for the quarter at $0.18. But this is meaningless anyway as the company guided for Q3 revenues $53-57M v $62Me and FY14 R$262-270M v $282Me (prior 276-282M) -and expects lower net revenues per visit during 2H -
this is just a lie as
1) non-gaap earnings indeed missed estimates by a mile
2) revenue forecast is way below current estimates
3) every single relevant business metric came in weaker than in Q1
I would expect a couple of downgrades tomorrow morning and the stock to be down closer to 30%
GMCR ordered when the price came back down of course so they are already restocked again at this point and can wait until prices move lower again. And JVA has no cheap inventory to sell to them anyway.
Last quarter they failed to sell at market prices as their position within the market is just too weak. Actually the company has failed on almost anything during the last few years.
they have proven many times that they are unable to capitalize on the huge market opportunity while market leaders like SCTY and SPWR have problems to keep up with demand.
why in the world should the share price go up ? The times of selling cheap inventory are already over at JVA - they will have to pay high purchase prices again and might not even have the pricing power to pass the whole costs to their customers.
Management explained this in detail on the conference call - just listen to the replay of today's call - while financing clearly is not a problem the deal looks ill-fated as it was seemingly put together head over heels in light of the recent IGT takeout. Analysts on the call especially doubted the forecasted cost synergies and asked about potential FTC issues. Overall the deal recption was pretty lukewarm. Even worse management outright rejected to talk about the agreed breakup fee on the call and hinted to an upcoming SEC filing instead which won't be filed immediately.
Bally shareholders should take their money and RUN fast as there's a high probability of the deal to fall through as already evidenced by today's trading action. Would outright short SGMS as they will be pressured by a seemingly very high breakup fee.
should end up close to unchanged