given the revenues reported ytd I would assum very little revenue contribution from contracts signed in FY14, perhaps $5-10 mln.
Company is providing full year 2015 guidance but fails to provide preliminary Q4 2014 figures except commenting on a "strong finish to 2014".
If Q4 2014 does not come in as "strong" as analysts currently model the FY15 revenue guidance would be in line or even below current estimates.
Even worse they will realize just $25 mln in new contract revenues in Q1-3 2015 which does not look like a strong number to me.
The earth seems to get somewhat flatter every day now with regards to Supercom...
You might want to take a look at my comments on the PERI board, another Isreaeli company that claimed things were great after a transformational merger with another Israeli company 10x as big...
sure - but you should ask yourself if it makes sense...who should pay your losses ?
FXCM ? No, Jefferies is entitled to take it all
Jefferies ? No, at least they kept the company afloat
The SNB ? This would be a good laugh.
Actually the company will have to adress the debt situation before quarterly results become meaningful to investors
just wait until the final debt-for-equity exchange is done - the stock is full of momentum traders attracted by some ill-fated pumpin on smart money recently. Would expect the shares to move back to $ 2 on the looming equity conversion
Obviously institutional dividend investors are getting out of the shares here in anticipation of a huge dividend cut which is very likely at least medium term.
would use any strength to establish new short positions here - I don't think the company will get bought out given the weakness in its business metrics.
the shares will be killed on any equity conversion regardless how tiny
Yes - they could do this but they can't bank on the favorable scenario going on forever. So wasting all the cash on the balance sheet would be outright dumb here. I continue to expect a roughly 50/50 cash and stock scenario
The company used a combination of cash on hand and new stock in the last two deals and I would expect the same here.
Given market conditions they might be able to roll over the remaining debt but why doing this when they can get rid of it altogether ?
Actually converting debt into equity might be painful for shareholders but economically this is still the right decision here. And given the share price appreciation I would be surprised of the company wouldn't take advantage of it.
The underlying business has been vastly improving during Q4 due to the current oil price contango but actually not ALL of the quarter saw the huge increase in dayrates. Investors might be disappointed by the company's Q4 results. But they should look forward to a great Q1 instead.
The company still has to deal with a $130 mln bond maturity in April - given the greatly improved cash flows I don't view this as a problem anymore but the company has converted parts of the bond into equity at distressed prices last year and might VERY WELL chose to so with the rest. This would outright kill the stock price short term.
The stock has been merely a daytrading vehicle as of late due to some pumping on Smart Money but this masks the true appreciation of the underlying business.
Frontline has done two storage deals so far, securing good revenue and margins over up to 4 quarters. This is a big positive.
Investors should be wary of the company's near term actions with regards to the convertible bond maturity in April. I would expect a huge debt for equity exchange which might lead the stock to plunge 30% and more (shares were down 20% each time they did rather tiny exchanges in 2014). Q4 results might also fall well short of high investor expectations.
Once these issues are put behind and with the oil price contango still in place I would expect the stock to appreciate to recent highs easily but short term I see elevated downside risks. Investors should wait for the company to finally get its house in order and take advantage of an anticipated debt for equity exchange.