I get that.
Endless run-ups scare me. I personally don’t get how on one day the market values a company at X and then 3 weeks later with no relevant news, it’s now valued at 2x. I also believe that if the end target price for this is $150, then near term the target is something less than that…perhaps 70? 80? When we are at $35, there’s greater upside than downside so it’s a hold. When we’re at $60, the risk/reward relationship becomes less compelling.
Second, the overall market is way ahead of itself and at risk of overheating. I want to build some dry powder in the event we have a correction.
The last and most important point (at least for me) is that the more we go up, the more this one position becomes an inordinately lopsided majority of my portfolio. Therefore, there’s nothing wrong with lightening up. (and I’m not even doing that….just writing options which puts me in a position where I might need to sell). I would much rather look back and say ‘wow, I made a lot of money, but I could have made more’, than ‘wow, I was up a lot of money and lost it because I didn’t take anything off the table’.
If you tell me this stock (or any stock for that matter) has no risk, I’ll tell you I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
I’m enjoying the opinions and the banter. It’s healthy. And in the end, this was a good decision for me.
Hope you enjoyed the holiday.
Showing a gain of 1500%. Pretty sweet. We're also likely a top performer in the Nasdaq for 2013. I've been trying to resurrect our "Countdown to $100", but it gets lost in the 'old post' archives.
True, but much of that has to be priced in. We're up almost 20 points in just a few weeks. I would attribute earnings to some of that. I am surprised at the reaction to the stock offering. Confirmation of another RC sale would be good, but not sure it'd deserve another 5-10 points. So I think we're in the final innings of the run-up. Even still, it's only a modest percentage of my position AND I have another $5 of upside (in 8 weeks) before I've made the wrong decision.
If we're at $100 at the end of January, I promise I won't be complaining.
Dangerous to call tops just as it is to call bottoms, but we've gotten a little ahead of ourselves here...so I'm looking to monetize the wait until the next leg up. Nothing too crazy. Been forced to cover many times in the past as we've rocketed past the strike price. But we shall see. Only went out to Jan.
Sold my remaining puts today...over 100% return on those. This stock is garbage...but if the boiler room pinheads want to try and get it back over $3...I'll be sure to repeat this process.
I'm out now...thanks for the money!!
Started unloading some of my options today. Would have done better if i sold a week-ish ago, but hey...a 75% return on my Dec $5 puts and 80% return on my Dec $2.50 puts in just 5 weeks aint too bad.
Keep pumping folks. I'll be back if you pump this thing back up over $3.
I just don't get it. They want to raise $50-$100mm to work out a $50mm backlog? And when they have $200mm in free cash, they'll want to raise $300mm to do something else. I agree with Gora that there has to be a better way to get the near-term cash. With it occuring so soon after the earnings call, I feel like this was a stealth move intended to occur at a time when it wouldn't/couldn't be questioned.
Sure we can all look to justify this and find the positive side and likely we will be still seeing new highs into early next year, but it brings back the somewhat 'questionable' moves this group has made over the years.
Guess the 'road to 100' party will have to be put on hold for now.
Just when we've all finished singing praises to these guys, they change the tune. Guess I shouldn't be surprised, but then I am very surprised. They should be piling up the cash in the near term. Guess this quiets the "stock buy-back" discussion for now...though they should buy these shares back once they lease a few more plants.
Bart - you buying back?
You fools haven't even finished typing your pumps before this things tanks. It's hysterical to watch. Keep it up. Tell me more about the next GAP at the open or how it's going to $6...then $20...then $100 ....then a billion...or how it's the next Twitter.
What a bunch of fools.
I thought we beat on both Revs and EPS. The IN PLAY headline indicated a miss on revenues.
So, after a blood bath on my porfolio today (heavy solar bias), it was nice to see some good numbers out of ADES. I happily accept my being wrong in my EPS guess and will be glad to buy a round of drinks come next meeting.
I noticed some creepage (is that a word?) on the bid after hours, but no activity to speak of. I think we'll get a pronounced move higher tomorrow. But now we're 4 months away from our next CC. MD mentioned a 'quarterly update' in January, but hopefully there are still some updates between now and the end of the year.
Thanks to Merc for the conf call #.
Wbart - You dipping back in the ADES pool? The water's warm.
UNDER $4? No. I don't think we'll see those numbers again. Under $5 and INTO the $4s, that's a possibility...over the next few trading days. But we've already shaved off 30% from our highs so I'm looking at less of a massive heaving and more of a post earnings hangover.
Wow...to say that they were 'weak' would be an understatement. $4.9mm in revenue? Not what we were looking for. And even if there wasn't any 'slippage' into the 4th Q, I doubt we'd have seen anywhere near the $10mm the street was expecting.
I guess the take away is that it WILL happen. It's just not YET happening.
I also noticed the revenue estimate went up as well and the mean recommendation improved very subtly.
So basically, we've seen changes in:
Avg EPS - decrease from $.16 to $.14
Avg Revenue - increase from $68mm to $73mm
Mean target - increase from $54.80 to $56
Median target - increase from $53 to $56.50
Avg opinion - increase from 1.5 to 1.4 (this is an increase as it's a positive)