The company's third quarter revenue came in at $66.7 million and EBITDA was $21.3 million. Analyst estimates proved too high for both the second and third quarter. For the fourth quarter I see that as the price of UAN rose only in the end of December, most of the product was already sold before with lower prices. Still, if we discount the second quarter unplanned factory stops and instead of a 91.9% utilization rate use 97%, we get a revenue estimate between $70-$75 million for the fourth quarter and a similar EBIDTA prediction between $23-$25 million. These are slightly lower than analyst estimates.
This brings us to the first quarter of 2015. As the price of fertilizers started rising for the last month, we are seeing positive signs for a nice bounce in revenue and earnings. As things progress we could see an increase in revenue by 10%-20% depending on the movements for UAN and ammonia prices. Revenue for the first quarter of 2015 at this rate would be between $77 million-$84 million and EBITDA between $26 million-$30 million, in case there are no more unplanned production stops. At the moment this is about 10% above analyst estimates.
(click to enlarge)
Future outlook and conclusion
The company is on a solid footing in the current environment and makes almost full use (~99%) of its production capacity, minus the slight possibility of unplanned downtime in plants. The future growth of the company is helped by room for more financing with a low debt-to-equity ratio. Also by a location advantage which manifests in higher margins and fixed input costs for 70% of production until 2027, through the partner company CVR Refineries. Furthermore, it can potentially upgrade its whole production to UAN, which is higher cost than ammonia. The high operating margin will help the company go through rougher times and excel in better times. The company pays out most of its cash, which at the moment yields ~9%. The company's general partner CVR Energy is limited to a regular shareholder status and reserves no special rights to the company's distributions, which are paid out close to 100% each quarter. Due to higher nitrogen fertilizer prices, I estimate about 15% higher revenue and earnings for the fist quarter of 2015 and just a slight increase for the fourth quarter of 2014.
In conclusion, CVR Partners' price increase in the last month reflects the higher expectations for revenue and growth for the first quarter of 2015 and also a possible trend change in fertilizer prices. For the long term this is a stable dividend paying company with a moat and room to grow in the future, but as the margin is mainly better when UAN and ammonia prices are higher, like in the last month, one needs to monitor this trend to be sure it continues before buying.
Fourth Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced 02/19/2015. With 4 analysts covering UAN, the consensus EPS estimate is $0.23, and the high and low estimates are $0.24 and $0.22, respectively.
DEFINITION OF 'SCHEDULE 13G'
An SEC form similar to the Schedule 13D used to report a party's ownership of stock that is over 5% of the company. Schedule 13G is shorter and requires less information from the filing party. Ownership of over 5% in a publicly-traded stock is considered to be significant ownership, and therefore must be reported to the public.
Gas Equivalent Pressure Choke
Name Target (MMcf/d) (Boe/d) (psi) Setting
------- ----------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------
27H Webb -- Eagle Ford 20.4 3,392 4,855 30/64"
28H Webb -- Eagle Ford 21.1 3,523 3,946 36/64"
29H Webb -- Eagle Ford 20.6 3,437 4,821 30/64"
30H Webb -- Eagle Ford 21.1 3,518 3,820 36/64"
Terry Swift commented further, "We are pleased with our drilling and completion efforts in Fasken, as we have now drilled 14 consecutive wells with average initial production tests in excess of 20 MMcf/d. These results demonstrate that deploying customized, engineered completions in horizontal laterals drilled in precise target zones of the Eagle Ford shale improve the productivity of our wells."
Swift Energy Announces Revised 2015 Capital Budget and Updates Operations
Jan 13, 2015 07:00:00 (ET)
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--January 13, 2015--
Swift Energy Company (NYSE:SFY) today announced a revised 2015 capital budget range of $100 - $125 million in response to recent hydrocarbon price declines. This revised level of activity is projected to yield between 11.2 and 11.4 million barrels of oil equivalent ("MMBoe") of production.
Terry Swift, CEO of Swift Energy, commented, "Our revised budget, representing a 70-75% decrease in spending from 2014, reflects the lower commodity price environment we face in 2015 and demonstrates our response during this down cycle. We continue to work with our vendors and suppliers to reduce service costs and are taking steps to materially reduce field level operating and corporate overhead expenses."
Swift Energy also announced today that it has tested four new Eagle Ford wells in the Fasken area in Webb County, Texas. The Fasken 27H, 28H, 29H and 30H were all recently completed with an average initial production rate of 20.8 million cubic feet of gas per day.
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Yara: piece of this
Low natural gas prices and a strong dollar boost Yara
The Yara International ASA headquarters and company flag sit in Oslo, Norway, on Tuesday, June 30, 2009. Yara International ASA, the world's largest fertilizer maker, is interested in buying companies or assets in countries with access to cheap natural gas, a major component in its products. Photographer: Heidi Wideroe/Bloomberg News©Bloomberg
il prices have collapsed. So market pundits and traders scurry around like crazed chickens looking for beneficiaries. Well, look no further than Yara, the Norwegian fertiliser company. Its shares have jumped a quarter in the last month taking its forward price-to-earnings ratio (13 times) towards the higher end of its 10-year range.
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Crop prices are the usual suspect when it comes to explaining the share price moves in Yara and rivals such as CF Industries in the US. Higher agriculture commodity prices lead to more planting by farmers. These commodities have been tumbling. Corn has been one of the worst performing commodities over the past three years, down 38 per cent. Soybeans, which many farmers plant instead of corn, has fallen too, though by less. Fertiliser companies like it when farmers plant
Employment Agreement with Chief Executive Officer
On December 18, 2014, the Company and Mark Radom, its chief executive officer, signed an employment agreement, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit
10.2 (the "Employment Agreement"). Pursuant to the Employment Agreement, Mr. Radom will be paid an annual salary of $110,000 starting December 15, 2014, a signing bonus of $36,667 and be entitled to receive shares of common stock and options representing an aggregate 9% ownership stake in the Company to vest over a three-year period commencing on June 15, 2014. The term of the Employment Agreement is three years, although the Company may terminate without cause with four months' advance notice. Mr. Radom is required to devote 75% of his time to the Company, but may pursue other business interests in the remaining 25% of his time.
Shorts Got Squeezed by Talisman Deal -- Market TalkFont size: A | A | A
11:22 AM ET 12/29/14 | Dow Jones
11:22 EST - Talk about bad timing. Repsol's (REP.MC) $8.3B deal to acquire Talisman (TLM), struck earlier this month, stung many bearish investors who had bet sinking oil prices would take their toll on TLM shares. New data out Monday show short interest in the Canadian energy producer jumped 59%between Nov. 28 and Dec. 15 as oil prices touched 5-year lows. The next day, TLM announced its buyout--done at a nearly 60% premium to its share price the prior month. It's hardly the first short to be squeezed by a surprise M&A deal, but painful all the same.