Just like we can sense it when a major storm is about to hit, I feel that something major (good) is about to happen with SRPT. We will see if I'm right or not, but I can feel it. It is going to be big and very soon (this month - so during July).
I have absolutely NOTHING to back this up with, no links, no web pages, no analyst comments, nothing. Just a pure gut feel.
If it is an acquisition, contingent on the approval of Eteplirsen, what value would the buyout be? The valuation would need to include the potential full valuation of Etwplirsen as well as the conditional value of the drugs in the pipeline, coupled with a reasonable P/E based in projected sales. That really drives to a net present value (risk adjusted) formula that lands us anywhere from $150/share to $300/share based on the probability of approval for each drug, reasonable market penetration, and total available market. Considering that Eteplirsen likely will only target the 13% of DMD patients with the specific mutation, Eteplirsen could easily exceed $500M/year in sales, which drives to a market capitalization valuation of about $5B without even considering the other drugs.
Also, why the buyout once they have cleared all the regulatory hurdles? That's like setting up a deal to sell my winning lottery ticket conditional on it winning, for a discount, before it has won. Once I've won, I don't need anybody to buy it, I've already won.
So go buy BMRN. Why even be here? Are you also posting on the PFE board about how great BMRN is?
When the FDA accepts the NDA SRPT will pop over $50 and upon final approval it will be over $100/share (next year by this time).
That is old news, is that really all you've got?
The FDA would have told them that up front if that was an issue (in fact, they did, Ana well as how to fix it with the additional studies that are already underway). Plus, the 12, as a percentage of the target patient population, is still within the zone, as a meaningful percentage of affected patients. The number of patients is small, so the number of trial subjects is small.
Still, since you can't attack the safety profile or efficacy, I guess the numbers game is your only hope.
And that isn't much, since it already passed the FDA.
I am excited. It is within 10% of the 52-week high and will double before the end of the year. That is exciting.
It will also be a new all time high.
For years, almost all attention surrounding Sarepta Therapeutics has been on its drug for the most common gene mutation that causes Duchenne muscular dystrophy, called eteplirsen. This week, the company quietly disclosed plans to start late-stage trials of two further drugs for other genetic causes of DMD.
Together, the three experimental drugs would treat about 30 percent of the total worldwide patients with the rare disease. That’s more than double the number that would be treated by eteplirsen, which is now being considered for approval in the U.S.
“We’re really filling out our pipeline,” said Ian Estepan, a spokesman for Cambridge-based Sarepta (Nasdaq: SRPT).
The company’s goal in the long run has always been to develop drugs to treat as many different mutations as possible that cause the disease, which degenerates muscles to the extent that patients are forced to use wheelchairs by the age of 12. Eteplirsen is aimed at boys with a mutation in a part of the DNA called exon 51. That’s the most common one, responsible for about 13-15 percent of patients with the disease, and is also the target population of a competing drug developed by California-based BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: BMRN). Both drugs will likely be reviewed by an FDA advisory committee later this year.
Who is this jerk. Somebody hit him.
Hiding as usual.
We do understand it quite well thank you. There are many reasons it can be up:
- Early acceptance of NDA
- Good news on updated SRPT clinical trials
- Bad news on BMRN toxicity issues
- Potential buyout
We look at them all to see if we can rationalize what is going on.
Or we can take your view and just shake our heads and be clueless.
I'm not creating expectations, I'm reading the tea leaves. Something is coming and coming very soon. Probably on the EA but not necessarily connected to that. A lot like watching a major storm coming around the same time as a holiday. It may or may not coincide with the holiday but it is coming no matter what.
Copied from theStreet website:
Interesting that Yee is effectively valuing Drisapersen at $11B net. So if Sarepta's drug is approved and Biomarin's is not, should we expect north of $11B valuation (8x SRPT's current price, e.g. $264/shr), given that SRPT's DMD pipeline is at least as big as BMRN's?
It also seems odd that Biomarin says it needs FDA feedback before initiating confirmatory studies for Drisapersen, unlike Sarepta who have have already started confirmatory studies for Eteplirsin after receiving FDA feedback. Hmm.
Actually, I thought it was "filed" with the FDA - meaning that SRPT has done their part, just that the FDA hasn't officially accepted the final filing, but maybe at is what you meant.
Very good point. Everything is lining up properly now, so let's hope for a smooth ride through the regulatory waters.
The manipulation is widespread, across the whole biotech sector. Nothing specifically about SRPT. Then this one will bounce right back.